Week 16 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Patriots certainly have not looked like the Patriots over the past two weeks, but against the Bills this week, New England still has the third-highest implied team total on the Week 16 slate of 28.75 points. However, Buffalo ranks third in aFPA to QBs. Brady has failed to reach 15 fantasy points in two of his last three games, as well, and had less than 14 FP in the first meeting against Buffalo. Brady is a very risky option for Week 16. Consider a streaming option.
Week 15 at Pittsburgh Steelers
As usual, there are a lot of reasons to like Patriots players in fantasy this week. New England has an implied team total of 27.5, among the highest in the league. Only Baltimore is averaging more offensive plays per game this season than New England, and only Baltimore and Dallas have more offensive plays over the past three weeks. Plus, this game has an over/under of 52, among the highest of Week 15. Pittsburgh ranks 4th in aFPA to QBs, but Brady has put up solid fantasy number in three of his last four regular season games against the Steelers in what should be a high-scoring game. He's a QB1 again this week.
Week 14 at Miami Dolphins
The New England Patriots head to Miami with a top five implied team total, facing a defense that ranks just 29th in total defense this season. New England struggled at Hard Rock Stadium surprisingly, but this Dolphins defensive unit doesn't have the pieces it had last year. Miami ranks just 25th in aFPA to QBs. Brady posted 19 fantasy points against Miami earlier this year and should continue to be a solid floor play this week.
Week 13 vs. Minnesota Vikings
The New England Patriots have a healthy implied team total of 27 points this week in a game hovering around an over/under of 50. Minnesota ranks top 10 in aFPA to QBs, and Tom Brady's ceiling has suffered in recent weeks due to a more balanced offensive approach. Brady has thrown fewer than 40 passes in two of his last three games and hasn't thrown for multiple touchdowns in four of his last six games. He's still the GOAT, but it's okay at this point to consider other options if you are rich at the quarterback position.
Week 12 at New York Jets
The Patriots come off the bye week motivated to not lose consecutive games, and their implied team total reflects that. New England is tied for the second-most expected points on the Sunday-Monday slate at 28.5 points. Plus, the Jets are just 21st in aFPA to QBs. Brady has averaged about 18 points in his previous four games against the Jets, reflecting a solid floor but also the positive game script that has come with these match-ups against inferior competition of late. We expect QB1 numbers but not elite production in Week 12.
Week 10 at Green Bay Packers
The Patriots only have the eighth-highest implied team total of the Sunday slate at 26.5 points, a departure from their usual spot near the top of that weekly list. Perhaps some respect from the oddsmakers against a Titans defense that ranks 10th in aFPA to QBs. Brady's road splits this season are also concerning, with three of four weeks with fewer than 17 fantasy points. However, he did torch the Titans in New England in the playoffs last season for more than 300 yards and three scores. We don't see Brady as an elite option in Week 10, but as always, the GOAT is still a fantasy starter.
Week 8 vs. Green Bay Packers
In a showdown with Aaron Rodgers in Week 9, expect a lot of points. New England has a monster implied team total of 31.5 points, highest of the week. Brady has at least 19 fantasy points in each home game this season as well, locking him into high-tier QB1 status for this fantastic match-up.
Week 8 at Buffalo Bills
The Patriots head to Buffalo Monday night to face a Bills team they've averaged 33.7 points against in their last three meetings. New England has also scored at least 38 points in each of its last four games and has a Week 8 implied team total of 29 points. Yea, we'd say things are looking up for fantasy production this week. Fire up Tom Brady as your usual QB1, despite the Bills ranking top five in aFPA to QBs. They just allowed four touchdowns to Andrew Luck.
Week 6 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
We all know at this point you do not need reasons to start Tom Brady in fantasy football, but here are a few anyway for Week 6. The Patriots have the highest implied team total of Week 6 at 31.5 points. The Chiefs are bottom five in the league in aFPA to QBs. Brady is averaging 22.6 FP/G at home this year. There. Start him.
Week 5 vs. Indianapolis Colts (Thursday)
The Patriots have the highest implied team total for Week 5 at 31 points, coming off a dominant performance against the Dolphins. Indy ranks just 19th in aFPA against QBs, and the Colts offense may have trouble moving the ball with a banged up O-Line and down its best pass-catcher in T.Y. Hilton. That could lead to even more possessions for Tom Brady, who we're sure doesn't forget this is the team that started DeflateGate. In his two home games this year, Brady has put up 19+ points. Start him confidently.
