Week 4 vs. Miami Dolphins
So the Patriots are off to another slow start in the regular season. We wonder how this story ends. You won't find concern here. We still have Brady easily in the QB1 rankings for Week 4, as he's posted 20+ points against the Dolphins in two of his last three starts against Miami. The Patriots also have a top-five implied team total this week at 27.5 points against a Dolphins defense that ranks just middle of the pack in aFPA against QBs through three weeks. Don't overthink it. It's Tom Brady.
Week 3 at Detroit Lions
Tom Brady faces the Lions on the road on Sunday Night Football against his former defensive coordinator, Matt Patricia, who is now the Lions' head coach. The Lions have allowed two touchdown passes to QBs in each of their first two games. The Patriots also have the second-highest implied team total of 30 points for Week 3. All signs point to Tom Brady having ample opportunity to post top-five fantasy QB numbers this week against a defense that was only 26th in aFPA to QBs last year.
Week 2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Tom Brady's gonna Tom Brady. Not even the mighty Jaguars defense is stopping Vegas from installing the Patriots as a road favorite, but the implied team total is about seven points lower than it usually is for New England (23 this week). Jacksonville was tops in the league in aFPA to QBs last season. He did finish with 19.6 points in the AFC Championship game, but Brady missing his top receiver and multiple running backs leave us concerned that his ceiling is capped this week at no higher than a low-end QB1 due to the matchup.
Week 1 vs. Houston Texans
At 41, the GOAT is still getting massive respect in Vegas to open the season, as only the Saints have a higher implied team total. The Patriots are projected for 28.5 points. The Texans were also just 19th in aFPA to QBs last season. Enough said. It's Tom Brady. Start him. He put up 33.7 fantasy points on the Texans last year.
Fantasy Upside
He's the greatest quarterback of all time and has not shown any signs of slowing down. He's been a top-three quarterback in points per game for three consecutive seasons. Brady is as safe as they come as a top-five quarterback.
Fantasy Downside
The downside with Brady, as with any elite fantasy quarterback, is his value relative to cost. Brady's ADP means you'll likely have to spend a pick on him in the first five rounds, often earlier in casual leagues. In redraft leagues, he also showed some inconsistencies from his expected elite self last season, with nine fantasy weeks of less than 18 fantasy points.
2018 Bottom Line
Brady should be a lock to again finish as a top-five fantasy quarterback. The only question you must ask yourself is if you are okay with being thinner at RB and/or WR if you use the early pick required to take Brady.
Super Bowl vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Patriots are the favorite in Vegas in Super Bowl LII. We project Brady for 18.4 points vs. just 14.5 for Nick Foles. But this week, those projections must be looked at compared to DFS price. Plus, pricing is different for this single-game slate. Based on our projections, Foles is a slightly better value on FanDuel and Brady over Foles on DraftKings. In terms of aFPA vs. QB rankings, both are facing similarly ranked defenses.
AFC Conference Championship vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
There is some mystery to how healthy Tom Brady is going into the conference championship game because of an apparent injury to his right hand. Reports out of New England range from Brady is okay to it will affect him slightly. Either way, all four quarterbacks this week face top-10 defenses in our aFPA vs. QB rankings, keeping Brady at the top of our overall rankings.
Divisional Round vs. Tennessee Titans
The Patriots have the highest implied team total as 14-point home favorites in Vegas this week, and that total is a fantasy juicy 31 points. The Titans are also just 17th in aFPA versus QBs. This is also a pass funnel defense as the Titans run defense finished fourth in the NFL. Alex Smith had almost 20 fantasy points against this defense in the Wild Card round. Tom Brady is in a spot where he could explode this week.
Week 17 vs. New York Jets
The Patriots are still playing for home-field advantage this week, which makes their starters viable in fantasy for Week 17. The Patriots also have the highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 29 points. Start Tom Brady confidently in Week 17, as a high-end QB1.
Week 16 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Patriots have the highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 29.5 points. However, the Bills defense is a run funnel, ranking seventh in aFPA versus QBs but dead last in aFPA versus RBs. In two of his past three games against the Bills, Tom Brady has failed to reach 14 fantasy points. He also has three straight games of poor fantasy performances coming into this week. It's really, really hard to do anything but start Tom Brady, though. Just hope he gets his points in the first half with perhaps a few more passes around the goal line with Rex Burkhead injured this week.
