Week 7 at New York Jets
In a Week 6 matchup with the Giants in which Tom Brady and the Patriots offense were understandably expected to dominate wire-to-wire, Brady's fantasy performance was uninspiring. His Week 6 finish as the QB7 was nice for his fantasy owners, but it was two goal-line-quarterback-sneak rushing touchdowns that elevated his final score and papered over his zero passing touchdowns alongside an interception. Brady likely missed Phillip Dorsett as a receiving option and losing both wide receiver and fullback Jakob Johnson in-game limited the offense's offensive playcalling.
Fortunately for Brady, the Patriots follow up their Thursday night game with a Monday night matchup with the Jets, giving both Dorsett and Gordon time to recover from minor injuries, with both appearing likely to start on Monday. New England also re-signed tight end Benjamin Watson, giving Brady a much more robust receiving corps than he's had in the past few weeks. The Week 7 matchup with the Jets is a challenging one, especially with the return of linebacker C.J. Mosley, and the Jets have allowed the 10th-fewest aFPA to opposing quarterbacks during Mosley's absence, but Brady did finish as the QB12 in Week 3 against this Jets squad. He remains startable as a QB1 this week.
Week 6 vs New York Giants
While the Patriots struggled offensively in the first half of their Week 5 matchup with Washington, Tom Brady ultimately took advantage of a soft Washington pass defense to throw for 348 yards and three touchdowns. He was the fantasy QB6 for Week 5, and he's now the QB7 overall for the season. Once Phillip Dorsett returns from injury, Brady has a strong top trio of wide receivers in Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, and Phillip Dorsett along with pass-catching running back James White. Rumors abound about the Patriots making a trade to bolster their receiving corps, so how much longer can this party last for the quarterback you probably drafted in round ten?
Well, it should certainly last at least one more week, with the Patriots welcoming the New York Giants to Foxborough. The Giants have allowed 21.4 aFPA to quarterbacks through five weeks, sixth-most in the NFL. Quarterbacks facing them have finished as the fantasy QB2, QB7, QB5, QB32, and QB9 in Weeks 1-5 respectively, and the outlier QB32 in Week 4 was actually rookie Dwayne Haskins relieving an ineffective Case Keenum halfway through the game. Brady may or may not have Dorsett at his disposal on Sunday, but should Dorsett sit, the Patriots will have a game plan utilizing their available pass catchers, and perhaps Jakobi Meyers will see his volume rise. Brady is a no doubt QB1 start in Week 6.
Week 5 at Washington Redskins
Tom Brady had one of his worst games in quite some time against the Bills in Week 4, completing less than 50% of his passes for 150 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception. He was Week 4's fantasy QB27, a finish that dropped him to the QB13 overall through four weeks. This isn't a shocking development, given that the Bills are allowing just 11.6 aFPA to quarterbacks, third-lowest. Fear not; better times are ahead.
Brady will line up against the Washington defense on Sunday, and he will probably like what he sees. Washington is allowing 20.9 aFPA to quarterbacks, sixth-most through Week 4. Only one opposing quarterback hasn't thrown exactly three touchdowns against the Washington defense, and that was Daniel Jones last week in just his second rookie start. Washington is 16th in aFPA to running backs at 23.5, giving the slight edge to a pass-oriented Patriots game plan. Of course, Washington will be starting an as-yet-undecided quarterback against a New England defense that's allowing the fewest aFPA to quarterbacks, so Brady might score the majority of his fantasy points in the first half before the offense transitions more toward the running game in the second half to protect a likely lead. Even so, consider him a safe QB1 for Week 5.
Week 4 at Buffalo Bills
Tom Brady has faced three teams who've had varying levels of success defending against quarterbacks so far in 2019. He's finished as the fantasy QB7, QB4, and QB12 respectively in Weeks 1-3, and has one of the most forgiving schedules ahead of him among all quarterbacks, with only two matchups against teams in the top ten in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) versus quarterbacks.
The Patriots face the Bills in Week 4, a defense with sixth-lowest aFPA to quarterbacks at 13.9. Buffalo has also given up a seventh-most 28.0 aFPA to running backs, while the Patriots themselves have allowed just 10.3 aFPA to quarterbacks and 19.5 aFPA to running backs. All of this points to a low-scoring defensive matchup, with a Patriots game-plan offense likely to lean on the run game, limiting Brady's upside. Buffalo has yet to face a quarterback of Brady's caliber in 2019; Sam Darnold, Eli Manning, and Andy Dalton aren't exactly a murderer's row, so don't go benching Brady for quarterbacks like Gardner Minshew or Marcus Mariota this week, but temper your QB1 expectations a bit.
Week 3 vs New York Jets
Tom Brady and the Patriots offense kept rolling in Week 2, immediately integrating new acquisition Antonio Brown into the offense and dropping 43 points on the reeling Miami Dolphins, and Brady finished as the fantasy QB4 for Week 2. Now also the QB4 overall through two games, Brady is averaging 25.2 fantasy points per game.
Brady draws yet another favorable matchup in Week 3 against a New York Jets defense that might be missing standout linebacker C.J. Mosley for a second straight game. The Patriots did lose starting left tackle Isaiah Wynn until at least Week 11, and it's unknown whether right tackle Marcus Cannon will be ready to return this week, so the offensive line is a potential concern. Additionally, the Jets were already scoring the second-fewest points per game before turning to third-string quarterback Luke Falk, so it's unlikely they'll find much success against arguably the best defense in the NFL. Game script may tilt the New England offense more toward the run, limiting Brady's ceiling somewhat. If Brady's on your roster, you're starting him unless you've also got Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Dak Prescott, but a slightly diminished output is certainly possible.
Week 2 at Miami Dolphins
Tom Brady began the 2019 season with a Week 1 matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers, and his performance may indicate that he was a steal in the late rounds of fantasy drafts. His 341 yards and three touchdowns made him the QB7 for the week, against a Pittsburgh defense that allowed the tenth-fewest passing yards per game in 2018.
Depending on the outcome of pending legal issues, Brady may now see the addition of Antonio Brown to his wide receiver corps, against a Miami defense that just allowed 378 passing yards and five passing touchdowns to Lamar Jackson. Even in the eventuality that Brown doesn't play, Brady should be a safe bet to put up top-five numbers in Week 2 against a re-building Dolphins team.
Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Tom Brady was fantasy's QB11 in 2018, a season that saw the Patriots rely more heavily on the power run game as the season wore on. With intermittent availability from Rob Gronkowski, the New England passing game didn't offer quite the fantasy upside we've become accustomed to. As we enter the 2019 season, Brady is fully Gronkless and now 42 years old, an age in which only three other quarterbacks have ever even attempted to start, and none of them played a full season. That being said, if anyone can re-write history, it's Tom Brady, who's already put together the greatest age 39, 40, and 41 quarteback seasons in history.
Brady enters the 2019 fray against the Pittsburgh Steelers, with a full complement of offensive weapons in Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, Demaryius Thomas, Phillip Dorsett, preseason standout rookie Jokobi Meyers, along with James White and Sony Michel as targets out of the backfield. For their part, the Steelers have steadily improved their defense over the past couple seasons, but with a full offseason to prepare and a healthy receiving corps, Brady is a good bet for top ten fantasy QB numbers in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Tom Brady was 2018's fantasy QB11, a season he capped off with his sixth Super Bowl victory. This offseason, he lost his number one target in Rob Gronkowski to retirement, and his left tackle Trent Brown to free agency. Brown's replacement was already on the roster, as first-round pick Isaiah Wynn missed the 2018 season with an achilles injury that he's on track to return from. Brady also saw Bill Belichick draft a wide receiver in the first round for the first time ever, along with a talented running back in Damien Harris to add to a versatile corps.
Fantasy Downside
Tom Brady putting up a dominant fantasy season in his age-42 season would be unprecedented. He just completed the best age-41 season ever statistically, resulting in a 15th-best 17.6 fantasy points per game. The loss of Gronkowski to the Patriots' offense is enormous, and while Brady's never had a rookie wide receiver with a first-round pedigree to throw to, both the New England offense and Brady's trust are notoriously difficult to crack for a rookie. Demaryius Thomas returning at full health and Josh Gordon being reinstated would certainly help, both are far from sure things. Good options could emerge from a wide-open field for the team's WR2, WR3, and lower-tier competition at TE, but it could also be a recipe for receiving mediocrity. Late in the season and throughout the playoffs, New England leaned on their running game to secure wins, and there's little reason to expect that to change drastically in 2019.
2019 Bottom Line
It's essential to separate Brady's real-life value to his team from his fantasy potential in 2019. Projected as 4for4's QB18 with an ADP in the 10th round (QB15), Brady is clearly not someone to target as your fantasy QB1. Relying on age-related outlier outcomes and everything coming together perfectly isn't a winning strategy. Given New England's tendencies as a game-plan offense, there will certainly be weeks in which Brady will put up QB1 numbers, potentially making him a very useful QB2 if his pass-friendly matchups line up well with your starter. He's also worth a target in bestball leagues where only his top-end weeks will be used, especially on Draft.com in the 12th round or later.
Week 19 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers go west to east for the second consecutive week to take on the Patriots in New England with a trip to the AFC Championship game on the line. New England is a shrinking four-point favorite with a middle-of-the-pack implied team total of 25.5 points. The Chargers rank top five in aFPA to QBs, which makes Tom Brady a very risky option in the divisional round.
Week 17 vs. New York Jets
The Patriots should send their starters out for a full 60 minutes this week in an effort to lock up a first-round bye in the playoffs. New England also has an outside chance at home field advantage with a win and Chiefs and Chargers losses. Because of this, New England is among the highest implied team totals this week at 29.25 points after being installed as almost two-touchdown favorites. Tom Brady is in a bounce-back spot against a defense ranked dead last in aFPA to QBs. Fire him up as a low-end QB1 with upside from there.
