Week 3 at Los Angeles Rams
Tom Brady is off to a monster start in his 22nd season. He had four touchdowns in Week 1, and followed that up with five touchdowns in Week 2. He had fewer yards (379 to 276), but cut down his interceptions (2 to 0) for a better game overall. Brady's stock takes a bit of a hit this week, though, as he gets a tough matchup against the Rams and he'll likely be without Antonio Brown. While both of those things are concerning, we still like Brady as a QB1 option this week. He still has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski to throw to. Plus, he's second in total fantasy points scored so far this season. In his game against the Rams last year, Brady finished with 216 passing yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.
Week 2 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Tom Brady started the 2021 season off with a bang, finishing with 379 yards and four touchdowns on 50 pass attempts. Although he had a surprising two interceptions as well. Turnovers aside, this game proves Brady is still more than capable of being a QB1 in fantasy despite his age (44). Mostly because he has an insanely talented receiving corps around him. He gets a favorable matchup this week against the Falcons, a team that allowed 326 total yards and three touchdowns to Jalen Hurts in Week 1. Brady should be viewed as a must-start option in Week 2.
Week 1 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Tom Brady is set to start his 22nd season in the NFL, and he shows no signs of slowing down. He finished with 40 touchdowns last season, his second-most ever in a single season. He gets his primary weapons back in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. And he even gets a few new targets in Giovani Bernard and the return of O.J. Howard. There's really no reason to dislike Brady heading into this Week 1 matchup at home against the Cowboys. He should be viewed as an easy QB1 play with the potential to finish as a top-five scorer at QB this week.
Fantasy Upside
Tom Brady had a remarkable season last year, finishing with 40 touchdowns, the second-most in any season of his career (plus three more TDs on the ground). He also had 4,633 passing yards, which are his most since 2015. And that’s even with him being benched at times in blowouts, and having his top wide receivers deal with injuries throughout the year. It’s not crazy to expect Brady to have a similar season or an even better one. He gets all of his weapons back, and more. Antonio Brown, who only played in eight games last season, will play the full year. O.J. Howard will return from injury after only playing in four games last year. And the Bucs added a receiving threat at running back in Giovani Bernard.
Fantasy Downside
Brady will be 44 this season, joining just three other quarterbacks in NFL history to play at this age. The other three combined to throw for nine touchdowns to eight interceptions in the season they were 44 years old. Brady also obviously offers no value as a rusher at a time where a number of quarterbacks have mobility, adding an extra floor for their rushing stats.
2021 Bottom Line
While most quarterbacks have their production decline in their 40s, Brady isn’t most quarterbacks. He shined last season finishing top 10 at his position. He was especially strong down the stretch when the Bucs added Brown, and Godwin was healthy. He had a 30:8 TD to INT ratio over his final 11 games (including the playoffs). With the whole squad returning, plus more, we could easily see Brady finish as a top 10 QB again in 2021.
Week 17 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Thankfully the Bucs have something to play for this week, so we can expect Tom Brady to play at full capacity. He's coming off a pair of incredible games as in his last four quarters of play, Brady has 668 passing yards with six touchdowns. We saw the last four quarters instead of the last game because he was so good last week that he was benched at halftime. Expect another strong game from Brady this week as he faces a Falcons defense he tore apart just two weeks ago for 390 yards. Brady is a top 10 QB play in Week 17.
Week 16 at Detroit Lions
Tom Brady threw for a season-high 390 yards last week, adding two touchdowns and no turnovers. It's the 11th game this season where Brady has scored multiple touchdowns, and the fifth consecutive such game. Brady has had his struggles this season, but as a fantasy option, he's been pretty great. He's a top 10 scorer at his position, and he'll be a top 10 option again this week in a favorable matchup against the Lions (No. 30 aFPA). Detroit has allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns to QBs this season. In fact, in the past four weeks, the Lions have given up the most passing touchdowns (11) to quarterbacks with no interceptions, either. With no Ronald Jones, the Bucs are likely to focus on the pass again. Brady is a good play in Week 16.
Week 15 at Atlanta Falcons
Tom Brady threw a season-low 23 times last week as the Bucs went with a more run-heavy approach. Brady still had a solid game considering the low pass attempts, finishing with 196 yards and two touchdowns. He's had at least two touchdowns in all but three games this season, providing a nice floor most weeks. He gets a favorable matchup against the Falcons this week, who have allowed the second-most passing yards and fifth-most passing touchdowns in the league. The Falcons have even allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season. With Ronald Jones likely out this week, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Bucs go pass-heavy in this one. We like Brady as a top 10 QB option in Week 15.
Week 14 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Tom Brady returns from his bye, and does so after coming off a strong Week 12 performance where he had 345 yards and three touchdowns. Brady's been on a bit of a hot streak lately, scoring nine total touchdowns in his last three games, an average of three per game. On the season as a whole, Brady is averaging 2.6 touchdowns per game, making him a solid fantasy option. He's ninth among QBs in total fantasy scoring (depending on your scoring settings), and we have him projected as a top 10 quarterback this week against Minnesota. It's a fairly good matchup as the Vikings have given up the ninth-most passing yards and fifth-most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season.
Week 12 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Tom Brady finished with a season-high 48 pass attempts last week, but struggled against the Rams defense. Brady had just 216 passing yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, his fourth game this season with multiple turnovers. Brady has been hot-and-cold this season, with some truly remarkable games and some forgettable ones. He gets a somewhat tough matchup against the Chiefs (No. 14 aFPA) this week, but not nearly as bad as last week against the Rams. This game has a chance to be a shootout between two high-powered offenses. We like Brady as a lower-end QB1 choice in Week 12.
Week 11 vs. Los Angeles Rams
After a rare off-night in Week 9, Tom Brady bounced back with a strong performance in Week 10. Brady finished with 341 yards and three touchdowns, his fifth game this season with 3+ scores. Brady looked great with Mike Evans, a more healthy Chris Godwin, and a more settled in Antonio Brown. He'll get a tough test this week, however, as he faces a tough Rams pass defense. The Rams have allowed just nine passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season, the lowest in the league. We still like Brady as a low-end QB1 play in Week 11, but don't expect another 3+ touchdown game.
