Week 6 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Tom Brady put up the yards last week as he finished with 351, but only managed to score one touchdown. Brady has now topped 300 passing yards in back-to-back games, which is noteworthy considering they are the only two games this season where Mike Evans and Chris Godwin played the entirety of the match. We wouldn't be surprised if Brady tops 300 again in Week 6 as he draws a favorable matchup against the Steelers. In fact, Pittsburgh is giving up an average of 298.8 passing yards this season, so it seems likely Brady will reach that mark. Brady should be viewed as a top-tier option at QB in Week 6.
Week 5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Bucs got down early last week, which means the team relied on Tom Brady to throw the ball, which led to his best game of the season. Brady finished with a season-high 385 passing yards with three touchdowns. Part of that production is because Brady threw the ball a season-high 52 times, but it also helps that he had his star players back. Mike Evans returned from suspension while Chris Godwin and Julio Jones returned from their respective injuries. The whole squad should be ready again in Week 5 in a favorable matchup vs. the Falcons. Atlanta has given up the 10th-most average fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year. Brady should be viewed as a QB1 this week.
Week 4 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Bucs were without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones in Week 3, and it was apparent as Tom Brady struggled to move the ball for most of the game. Brady wasn't awful, though, throwing for 271 yards and a touchdown. But the injuries at receiver have kept him way off pace from where he was a year ago. The good news is Brady will have Evans back from suspension this week, and Jones could potentially return from injury. He also gets a much easier matchup as the Chiefs have given up the ninth-most average fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. Brady isn't a must-start option like he was a year ago, but he's still a good option if you don't have a top-tier player.
Week 3 vs. Green Bay Packers
Tom Brady is dealing with a litany of issues right now in Tampa Bay. The offensive line has a number of injuries, and now there are problems with the wide receivers. Brady's No. 1 option, Mike Evans, got thrown out in Week 2 and is suspended for Week 3. His No. 2 option, Chris Godwin, reinjured himself and is likely out. The rest of his options are Julio Jones, Breshad Perriman, Russell Gage, and Scott Miller — all of whom are listed on the injury report this week. All of this has impacted Brady's stats, as he's averaging just 201 yards per game, down 111 yards from a season ago. He also has just two touchdowns with two turnovers through two games. He gets a decent matchup vs. Green Bay in Week 3, but he's not nearly the top five option he was a season ago. He's still startable as a low-end QB1, but the health of his receivers will be worth monitoring this week.
Week 2 at New Orleans Saints
Tom Brady was far from dominant in Week 1 against the Cowboys. Brady began the year throwing for 212 yards with one touchdown and an interception. He had some WR issues as Chris Godwin left the game with an injury, and Mike Evans had an injury scare as well. Speaking of which, the Bucs have Evans, Godwin, Julio Jones, Russell Gage and Breshad Perriman on the injury report this week. Brady will get a tough Week 2 matchup vs. the Saints. Brady had two very different games against New Orleans last season, throwing for 375 yards and four touchdowns in one with 214 yards and no touchdowns in the other. Brady will likely be without Godwin this week, and Evans has a history of struggling vs. New Orleans. Brady is still a good option in Week 2, but he likely won't have a top-five performance. He should be viewed more as a top-15 QB this week.
Week 1 at Dallas Cowboys
Tom Brady enjoyed a two-second retirement before returning for yet another season. Despite his age, Brady is coming off one of his best seasons, setting a career high in passing yards 5,316. And he still has a ton of talent around him in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones and Russell Gage. Everything is pointing towards yet another big year for Brady, and it begins in Week 1 vs. the Cowboys. Oddly enough, the Bucs also opened last year vs. Dallas and Brady had a lot of success with 379 passing yards and four touchdowns. We don't expect that again, but it's just a reminder of what Brady is capable of. He should be viewed as a top-10 option at QB this week.
2022 Fantasy Upside
Even in year 22, Tom Brady was able to set some new career highs last season. Brady set a new high in pass attempts (719) and passing yards (5,316). Brady has shined since joining Tampa Bay, finishing as QB3 last season and QB9 in 2020. The Bucs have mostly maintained their offense with strong weapons in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Tampa Bay also brought in WR Russell Gage, retained Leonard Fournette and drafted RB Rachaad White in the 3rd round. The Bucs also still have a strong offensive line, ranked 4th-best in the league by 4for4’s Justin Edwards.
2022 Fantasy Downside
While Godwin is still on the team, he suffered a torn ACL last season in Week 15 so it’s highly unlikely he’s healthy to start the year, and won’t return until around midseason. Star tight end Rob Gronkowski is also gone after he retired, and then there’s obviously the departure of Antonio Brown. While it hasn’t affected him yet, it is worth mentioning Brady’s age as he’ll be 45 at the start of the season. He also offers no additional help as a rusher, finishing with 81 yards on the ground last season.
2022 Bottom Line
This Bucs team will look a lot different in Week 1 of 2022 compared to 2021. At the start of last season, Brady had Evans, Godwin, Brown, and Gronkoswki. Three of those four won’t be there when the season kicks off. With such a change in personnel, it seems likely Tampa Bay won’t air it out quite as much. After all, 719 pass attempts is a lot. The Bucs threw the ball 56 more times than the 2nd-place team (Chiefs). We’re projecting a slight dropoff in production for Brady this season, but he’s still going to be a good option. He goes from being a top-five quarterback to more of a top-10 quarterback. His current ADP is on par with our rankings.
Week 17 at New York Jets
Tom Brady wasn't great last week in a tough matchup vs. the Panthers, but he wasn't terrible. Brady finished with 232 pass yards and a touchdown with no turnovers. It's just the fourth time this season he's failed to score multiple touchdowns in a game, and it's his second game in a row doing so. Both games were against tough defenses, but in both games he was also without his top receiving threats in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Evans had a light return to practice this week, although he remains on the COVID list. There is a small chance he's able to play, which would be a nice boost to Brady. Even if Evans doesn't play, Brady should be able to have a productive week in a favorable matchup vs. the Jets, who have given up the 5th-most average fantasy points to QBs. Brady should be viewed as a must-start QB1 in Week 17.
Week 16 at Carolina Panthers
It's not hyperbole to say Tom Brady had one of the worst games of his career last week. His team was held scoreless for just the third time ever. And Brady himself didn't play well, either, finishing with just 214 yards and two turnovers in addition to no touchdowns. He also took a season-high four sacks. It's hard to blame Brady too much as he entered the game without Antonio Brown and had Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette leave the game with injuries. The latter three will likely miss this week, but Brown is expected to return. Even with Brown returning, it's not crazy to cast doubt into Brady's Week 16 production.
It'll be a tough matchup against the Panthers, who have given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this year. In a tough matchup without his top weapons, things aren't looking great for Brady. But he's also still one of the best fantasy players this season, so he shouldn't be fully cast out. We still like him as a top 10 option at QB in Week 16.
Week 15 vs. New Orleans Saints
So much for a tough matchup. Tom Brady dominated the Bills, throwing for 363 yards with three total touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing) and no turnovers. He even ran for a season-high 16 yards. That was Brady's seventh game this season with at least 300 pass yards and two or more total touchdowns. One of those seven games came against the Saints, Brady's opponent this week. In that game, Brady finished with 375 yards and four touchdowns, although he did have three turnovers as well. But we can look past the turnovers if he's going to score four times. We wouldn't expect another four-touchdown game, but it's certainly not off the table in a favorable matchup. Brady should be viewed as a must-start QB1 in Week 15.
