Week 1 at Carolina Panthers
Todd Gurley finished off the 2018 on a sour note, after knee issues kept him from making significant contributions to the NFC Championship Game or the Super Bowl. Concern about the same injury pushed Gurley's ADP out of the first round of fantasy drafts, despite his fantasy RB2 overall finish last season.
If there is ever a time to start Gurley with confidence in 2019, Week 1 is it. Gurley is healthy and has had plenty of rest after being held out of preseason action entirely. He's up against a Panthers run defense that averaged the 12th-fewest rushing yards allowed per game in 2018, but Gurley's usage as a receiver should ensure a high floor. Vegas totals also project a high-scoring game, potentially increasing his scoring opportunity.
Fantasy Upside
Todd Gurley missed the last two weeks of the 2018 regular season with knee swelling, and yet still finished with the second-most fantasy points among running backs in .5 PPR scoring formats. His 0.97 fantasy points per touch was tied with Alvin Kamara for the third-best mark among all running backs with at least 200 touches, and the offensive line in front of him is one of the best in the NFL.
Fantasy Downside
Gurley split touches with C.J. Anderson to start the playoffs before ceding the majority of the running duties to Anderson in the NFC Championship and the Super Bowl. Los Angeles then spent a 3rd-round pick in the 2019 draft on running back Darrell Henderson, even after matching an offer sheet to keep Malcolm Brown, followed by Gurley's trainer confirming an "arthritic component" to his knee issues. If the Rams have decided to ease Gurley's workload significantly, it would obviously torpedo his value at ADP.
2019 Bottom Line
Gurley's 2019 value is one of the most difficult to predict among all running backs. His upside if decreased usage concerns are overblown is that of a top three running back, while his downside if his injury limits him to part-time status is that of a complete bust at his second-round ADP . He's unlikely to suit up for any of the Rams' preseason contests, so his ADP should only decrease as the offseason rolls on, especially if Henderson flashes during that time, so it may be wise to wait as long as possible to draft him.
Week 19 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Todd Gurley (knee) was removed from the Rams’ injury report for their Divisional Round matchup with the Cowboys. He missed the final two games of the season but has had three weeks to rest and coach Sean McVay said that Gurley “looks like the explosive, great back that we’re used to seeing.” The Cowboys have one of the more athletic front sevens in the league and ranked a respectable 12th versus fantasy running backs in 2018. Still, this is about volume, not matchup. Despite the Rams’ ability to move the ball through the air, McVay’s offense still runs through Gurley. Assuming he is fully healthy, Gurley makes for an excellent DFS play on Saturday night. He is projected to score 23.4 fantasy points in PPR formats.
Week 17 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Todd Gurley was ruled out for Week 16 due to a knee injury and remained sidelined at Wednesday’s practice. He remains day-to-day with knee inflammation and if he doesn’t play, C.J. Anderson will be the workhorse again for the Rams. Anderson had 167 yards and a touchdown in his L.A. debut last week at Arizona and he would be an RB2 if Gurley doesn’t play Sunday against the 49ers.
Week 16 at Arizona Cardinals
Todd Gurley rushed 12 times for 48 yards and two touchdowns while also catching 10-of-13 targets for 76 yards in the Rams’ Week 15 loss to the Eagles. Sean McVay inexcusably got away from Gurley in Chicago the week prior but made it a point to target his star back early and often against Philadelphia. Gurley did miss a series with a knee injury in the second half but returned to score a goal-line conversion. McVay said that Gurley is dealing with knee inflammation and his day-to-day, but he’s expected to play against the Cardinals on Sunday. Arizona ranks 23rd against fantasy running backs this season and Gurley, who is our RB2 for Week 16, is a must-start assuming he doesn’t suffer a setback before kickoff.
Week 15 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Todd Gurley rushed for just 28 yards on 11 carries while catching three of his seven targets for 30 yards in the Rams’ Week 14 loss to the Bears. The entire L.A. offense struggled in the cold weather of Chicago but Sean McVay inexcusably underused Gurley despite Jared Goff struggling for a second straight week. The good news is that the Rams have a get-right game on Sunday when they host a banged-up Eagles defense in Week 15. Ranked as our RB3, Gurley is a must-start for your fantasy playoffs.
Week 14 at Chicago Bears
Todd Gurley rushed for 132 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries while also catching three passes on five targets for 33 yards in the Rams’ Week 13 win over the Lions. With Jared Goff struggling, Gurley took the game over and showed no ill-effects of the ankle injury that he suffered two weeks ago in the team’s win over the Chiefs. Goff and the passing game could struggle again in the elements on Sunday night when the Rams take on the Bears in Chicago. Ranked as our RB4, Gurley is once again a must-start and should be the focal point of L.A.’s offense.
Week 13 at Detroit Lions
Todd Gurley rushed 12 times for 55 yards and caught all three of his targets for 39 yards in the Rams’ Week 11 win over the Chiefs. Despite L.A. scoring 54 points, Gurley never reached the end zone. In fact, he only had 28 yards at halftime. Gurley suffered an ankle injury on a 7-yard reception in the first half but remained in the game. Coach Sean McVay said during the team’s bye last week that Gurley is expected to be fine moving forward. Ranked as our RB2 for Week 13, Gurley is a must-start when the Rams travel to Detroit on Sunday. The Lions own the No. 15 defense against fantasy running backs this season.
Week 11 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Todd Gurley rushed 16 times for 120 yards and a touchdown in the Rams’ Week 10 win over the Seahawks. He also added three catches for an additional 40 yards. Gurley is averaging 139.0 yards per game with at least one touchdown in all 10 contests this season. The Rams host a Chiefs team that has surrendered 5.1 yards per carry and 12 rushing touchdowns this season while also allowing 7.5 catches and an NFL-high 35.0 points per game to running backs. Ranked as our No. 1 running back for Week 11, Gurley should have a monster night when the Rams host the Chiefs on Monday.
Week 10 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Todd Gurley rushed 13 times for 68 yards and a touchdown while also catching six-of-seven targets for 11 yards in the Rams’ Week 9 loss to the Saints. New Orleans used the blueprint that Atlanta had versus L.A. in the playoffs last year: Limit Gurley’s production in the passing game and get after Jared Goff. Granted, the Rams still racked up 35 points but Gurley was held in check, at least for his standards. The Rams host the Seahawks on Sunday and despite Seattle ranking seventh against fantasy running backs this season, Gurley is a must-start. He’s our RB1 for Week 10.
