Week 4 vs Packers
Another solid day on the ground for Gurley, his best in fact of 2020, as he rushed for 80 yards and a touchdown. But the Falcons just aren't throwing the football much to their running backs, in particular, Gurley. After seeing five passing targets in Week 1, Gurley has seen just two since, both coming in Week 3 against the Bears. He'll still get you work in the ground game, helping him stick as an RB2 against a Packers run defense that, while they have only had 63 rush attempts against them (second-fewest), are allowing 5.5 yards per carry (fourth-highest).
Week 3 vs Bears
It's been a slow start for Gurley, averaging just 58.5 yards per game on the ground and has just two catches. In fact, he has only played about half of the total offensive snaps for Atlanta through two weeks. He's hoping to have a game against the Bears like he did last season in Week 11 (133 total yards, 1 touchdown). And it's not like Gurley hasn't been getting the carries in the group. Brian Hill and Ito Smith only have six carries each so far. The yards should come with the continued opportunity, though the Falcons will be without RT Kaleb McGary (MCL sprain) in Week 3. The Bears are allowing 4.5 yards per carry through two weeks.
Week 2 vs Cowboys
It was a solid first game as a Falcon for Todd Gurley, rushing for 56 yards and a touchdown. The game script caused his usage to be capped but Week 2 could be a better outcome. Malcolm Brown scored twice and had 79 rushing yards against Dallas in Week 1 and Dallas now is without Leighton Vander Esch. He's a solid RB2 again this week, as we have him slotted as RB17.
Todd Gurley makes his Falcons debut this week against a team he is certainly quite familiar with, having been in the NFC West with the Rams. And he has had success against the Seahawks, particularly in the last two seasons. He's rushed for at least 50 yards (including 120-yards in Week 10 of 2018) in each of the last four games versus Seattle and scored in every game (7 total rushing touchdowns). The Falcons are sure to make their new friend feel right at home in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Todd Gurley didn't last long in free agency after being cut from the Los Angeles Rams this offseason and he lands in a good spot in Atlanta, with a strong offense and offensive line around him. He also faces less competition than he would have faced if he was still in L.A. Even with dealing with limitations in 2019, Gurley still finished as RB14 in 2019 with 12 touchdowns.
Fantasy Downside
The injury issues are certainly still surrounding Gurley dating back to the Rams run to Super Bowl LIII and will continue to linger heading into 2020. That said, he still played about 75% and carried the football 223 times in 2019.
2020 Bottom Line
As the clear lead back in Atlanta, replacing Devonta Freeman, Gurley has the looks of a very good RB2. Don't expect Ito Smith, Brian Hill or Qadree Ollison to cut into his workload too much
Week 17 vs Arizona Cardinals
Todd Gurley has turned out to be a significant fantasy value at running back in 2019, exceeding value at his ADP and defying expectations of an injury-limited season. He stands as fantasy's RB12 through Week 16, and he's been an RB1 or RB2 for 11 of 14 games played, missing just one game in Week 6.
Unfortunately, the Rams' loss to the 49ers last week knocked them out of playoff contention, making it fairly unlikely that Gurley will play many (or any) snaps in Week 17. Only their 2020 draft slot will be affected by this game's outcome, and the Rams traded their first-round pick to Jacksonville for Jalen Ramsey. Only two teams have allowed a higher aFPA to running backs than the Cardinals, but alas, Gurley probably won't have the opportunity to run them over.
Week 16 at San Francisco 49ers
Todd Gurley scored both a rushing and a receiving touchdown last week against the Cowboys and despite just 38 total yards from scrimmage, that made him the RB10 for the week. Gurley has now finished as an RB1 in four of his past five games, with a snap rate of 80% or more in his past two. Gurley finished outside of the week's top 24 running backs against the Steelers in Week 10 and the Ravens in Week 12, both teams whose aFPA to opposing running backs ranks top five among defenses.
Unfortunately for Gurley, he's up against a 49ers defense that ranks as the third-best in aFPA to running backs. San Francisco's front-seven is a formidable obstacle for Gurley, but his fantasy return will hinge on Los Angeles' ability to slow down a San Francisco offense that's averaged more points per game than every team but Baltimore. On the road for the second week in a row and following a game in Dallas in which they fell behind 28-7 in the first half, it's hard to feel confident in the Rams' ability to force a run-friendly game script. Consider Gurley a low-end RB2 for the fantasy finals.
Week 15 at Dallas Cowboys
Todd Gurley is rounding him into form at an ideal time for fantasy owners in 2019. He's finished as the week's RB8 for the past two weeks in a row, and the he's taken full control of the Rams rushing offense. His 80% snap share against the Seahawks was his third-highest of the season, while his 48.2% touch rate on that snap volume that was his second-highest of 2019. Gurley's also been re-integrated as a receiving option, catching all four of his targets last week for 34 yards.
The Rams play the Cowboys in Dallas this week, who rank 20th in aFPA to running backs and 8th in aFPA against wide receivers. Both figures are good news for Gurley, as that disparity should mean more volume for Gurley, and his efficiency on that volume should continue against a Dallas defense potentially missing linebackers Leighton Vander-Esch and Sean Lee. Gurley makes for an RB1 start this week, and continue to reward those who looked past his injury potential to draft him.
Week 14 at Seattle Seahawks
Todd Gurley was presented with a struggling Cardinals run defense in Week 13, and turned in an excellent fantasy performance as the fantasy RB8. Gurley has seen more than 18 rushing attempts in two of his last three games, with the Rams' lopsided loss to the Ravens accounting for the other game. It's an encouraging trend for Gurley's usage over the next few weeks.
Gurley's fantasy playoff opponents are the Seahawks, Cowboys, and 49ers, which isn't ideal. The Seahawks rank ninth in aFPA to running backs, though Gurley did manage a QB10 performance against Seattle in Week 5, rushing for 51 yards on 15 attempts with two touchdowns. It was also one of just two games in which he was targeted more than four times. I wouldn't be thrilled to have to rely on Gurley this week as an RB1, but he should be a safe start as an RB2.
Week 13 at Arizona Cardinals
Todd Gurley was held in check in Week 12 against the Ravens, and saw just six rushing attempts for 22 yards and an RB46 finish for the week. Gurley was used heavily the week prior against the Bears, so despite a difficult matchup, his fantasy finish was likely still a disappointment to many fantasy owners. Baltimore quickly put the Rams into a big hole, which equated to a near-abandonment of the run game.
The Arizona Cardinals have an aFPA to running backs that ranks twelfth-worst in the NFL, so the defensive matchup here is inviting. Despite a poor fantasy finish last week, Gurley dominated the snap share for the Rams, playing 96% of the offensive snaps. John Paulsen's projections rank Gurley as a fringe RB1 for the week, and if he's on your roster, he's a worthy start.
