Week 12 vs Baltimore Ravens
Todd Gurley's Week 11 snap percentage against the Bears of 75% wasn't significantly higher than his 71% season-average, but his 28 touches were his highest of the season. Gurley had his best fantasy outing of the season, with 133 total yards from scrimmage and a touchdown, which led to a finish as the RB3 for the week. If one subscribes to the theory that the Rams have been managing Gurley's reps to ensure his late-season effectiveness, this could be a very encouraging sign for Gurley's value moving forward.
The Rams face an excellent Ravens defense in Week 12, but Baltimore has allowed a higher aFPA to running backs than any other opposing offensive position. Only Baltimore's own high-scoring offense keeps this matchup from being ideal for Gurley, as opponents have often had to keep pace with the Ravens' offensive onslaught, which often means a heavy reliance on the passing game. The Rams' own stalwart run defense would go a long way toward keeping the game-script positive for Gurley's volume. Gurley projects as a low-end RB1 this week.
Week 11 vs Chicago Bears
Todd Gurley is fantasy's RB20 through Week 10, and his 73 rushing yards against the Steelers in Week 10 were actually his second-highest total of the year. Unfortunately, he didn't manage to score a touchdown, and along with zero receptions on four targets, his rushing total was only good for an RB25 finish for the week.
Gurley's lack of receiving production makes him extremely touchdown-dependent, and he faces a Bears defense in Week 11 that's allowed eight rushing touchdowns through nine games. Overall, Chicago's 22.9 aFPA to running backs ranks 13th in the league, and Vegas projects the game with a 41-point total. The Rams have an excellent defense themselves, and a defensive showdown should keep Los Angeles from abandoning the running game. Gurley makes for an uninspiring low-end RB2 this week.
Week 10 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Todd Gurley faced a plum matchup against the Bengals in Week 8, but finished the week as the RB23 with 44 rushing yards and a touchdown on just ten total carries. Gurley saw his lowest snap share of the season at 52%, on the heels of his second-lowest 61% snap share from Week 7. Gurley is averaging 13.0 fantasy points per game and has only surpassed 20 fantasy points once this season, and he ranks as the fantasy RB17 through Week 9. Gurley was actually out-touched by Darrell Henderson 13 to ten against the Bengals before entering the Rams' Week 9 bye.
The possibility remains that a week off will afford Gurley the necessary time to recover from the issues that are limiting his usage, but the impressive play of Darrell Henderson along with his rising snap share likely makes a more evenly shared backfield the best-case-scenario for Gurley's fantasy value. The Rams face a Steelers defense allowing just 19.7 aFPA to opposing running backs, and only five teams are allowing less. Gurley's usage will be worth monitoring closely in Week 10 to gauge his fantasy value for the second half of the season, but he's a risky start as an RB2 against the Steelers.
Week 8 vs Cincinnati Bengals
Todd Gurley shared the Rams backfield in Week 7 with Darrell Henderson as expected with Malcolm Brown missing the game, and finished as the RB13 with 54 total yards and a receiving touchdown. Gurley maintains his fantasy RB17 overall standing from last week, though his 61% snap share was his lowest among any of the games in which he's started. Gurley's reduced usage as a receiver has lowered his weekly ceiling, and outside of an 11-target outlier in Week 4, Gurley simply isn't seeing enough volume to push him into RB1 territory.
The Rams face the Bengals in Week 8, a matchup that quite literally couldn't be better for Gurley. The 33.7 aFPA to running backs given up by Bengals is by far the most among all 32 teams. Vegas is giving the Rams an implied team point total of above 30, the highest of any team this week, and while the Bengals haven't been slowing down opposing passing games either, Gurley should have an above-average chance at a touchdown. Even with a similar snap share to Week 7's, Gurley should have no problem putting up RB1 numbers.
Week 7 at Atlanta Falcons
Todd Gurley was inactive in Week 6 with a "thigh contusion", and practiced in a limited fashion on both Wednesday 10/16 and Thursday 10/17. Friday's practice will ultimately determine whether he plays on Sunday, and missing last week's game has lowered his overall fantasy ranking to RB17. Gurley has put together just two RB1 performances through six weeks.
If he's healthy enough to play, Gurley will face off against the Atlanta Falcons defense sporting 24.6 aFPA to running backs, 16th-most in the league. With Malcolm Brown questionable for this game, Gurley and Darrell Henderson are expected to share the workload, limiting Gurley's ceiling for volume. The Falcons are also allowing the second-most aFPA to quarterbacks, which is likely to entice the Rams to lean heavily on the passing game. Gurley is a mid-range RB2 start for Week 7.
Week 6 vs San Francisco 49ers
Todd Gurley had his best game of the season so far in Week 5 against the Seahawks, scoring 17.2 fantasy points in 0.5 PPR formats and finishing the week as the fantasy RB10. He was on the field for 93% of offensive snaps, by far a season-high, and he now has 11 total red zone rushing attempts which he's converted into five touchdowns.
Unfortunately, not only would Gurley face a 49ers defense on Sunday that's allowed the second-fewest aFPA to running backs at 13.8, but he unexpectedly appeared on the Rams' injury report on Wednesday with coach Sean McVay stating he wasn't sure about Gurley's availability for the game. If his outlook improves over the next couple of days, he's startable as an RB2 in a game that Vegas projects to be among the three highest-scoring matchups of the week. If he's inactive, look to Malcolm Brown to shoulder the rushing load.
Week 5 at Seattle Seahawks
Todd Gurley scored the eighth-most fantasy points in Week 4, his first RB1 performance of the season, despite a game script in which the Rams passed for an eye-popping 86% of their offensive plays. Gurley had just five carries for 16 total yards, but his two rushing touchdowns inflated his fantasy finish considerably. His 11 targets were by far his most of this young season and were an encouraging development, as were his five red-zone touches.
Gurley's matchup in Week 5 against Seattle promises to be far more forgiving, with the Seahawks allowing 21.9 aFPA to running backs, fifth-most in the league. Vegas projects this game to be one of the highest-scoring of the week, with an implied point total of 49. Gurley's target increase and heavy red zone usage make him a great option as an RB2, but his fairly inefficient 0.26 PPR fantasy points per snap keep him out of RB1 territory for now.
Week 4 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Todd Gurley has averaged a very nice 69% snap share this season, though his 0.21 PPR points per snap remain behind second-string running back Malcolm Brown's 0.38. Concerns about Gurley's disappearing red zone usage proved mostly unfounded, as he's out-touched Brown seven to three in the red zone since Week 1. Gurley's weekly finishes have been RB23, RB14, and RB48, so we're still awaiting his first top-12 performance of the season.
A Week 4 tilt against the Buccaneers doesn't project to be a great matchup for Gurley. Tampa Has allowed 160 total rushing yards, and only the Patriots and the Ravens have allowed fewer. The Buccaneers' -4.2 Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) is by far the best in the NFL, and they have yet to allow a touchdown to a running back. Gurley owners have to hope that Los Angeles' league-leading 30.5 implied team total equates to a couple of goal-to-go scoring opportunities, but his lack of touch volume makes it hard to start him as anything more than a risky flex play.
Week 3 at Cleveland Browns
Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown saw a 64%/36% split of offensive snaps in Week 2, which was a slight increase in favor of Brown from their Week 1 70%/27% split. Gurley was more efficient with his carries, finishing as the fantasy RB14 in 0.5 PPR scoring. Gurley also saw four red-zone touches to Brown's two in Week 2, which helps ease concerns that Gurley had ceded red-zone work to Brown.
The Rams travel to Cleveland to face the Browns in Week 3, who have allowed 159 total rushing yards to running backs, 12th-fewest, but they've also allowed the second-most receiving yards to the position at 143. Vegas projects this game to be the second-highest-scoring matchup of the week, with only a one-point spread in favor of the Rams. Gurley saw four targets in Week 2, a number likely to increase against the Browns, and with game script also favoring scoring opportunities, Gurley can be started as a high-end RB2 with potential for RB1 numbers.
Week 2 vs. New Orleans Saints
If you had concerns about Gurley's usage for the 2019 season, Week 1 did nothing to assuage them. Gurley's 15 total touches were tied for 16th among running backs, and only one of them was a passing target. Malcolm Brown received all five of Los Angeles' red zone rushing attempts, and converted them into two touchdowns. If Gurley can remain healthy, he'll likely have some top 12 fantasy weeks moving forward, but they'll be difficult to predict with a reduced touch share.
The Rams face the Saints in Week 2, who allowed the Texans' backfield to rush for 180 yards in Week 1. The Rams averaged over 10 targets per game to their running backs in 2018, 84% of which went to Gurley.
Los Angeles targeted their backfield only once in Week 1, which is more likely a Week 1 aberration than a trend, so Gurley should be helped by an increase in targets. He's startable as an RB2 if he stays off the injury report, but don't count on high-end RB1 numbers from him moving forward with this kind of limited rushing volume and minimal red zone usage.
