Week 3 at Tampa Bay
Todd Gurley rushed for just 51 yards on 19 carries in the Rams’ Week 2 upset victory over the Seahawks. It was the second consecutive week that Gurley and Los Angeles failed to reach the end zone. Predictably, Seattle stacked the box in efforts to slow down Gurley, and Case Keenum couldn’t take advantage of the single coverage on the outsides. Gurley will continue to see a loaded box every week until the Rams prove that they can move the ball through the air. Things don’t get any easier for Gurley on Sunday when L.A. faces Tampa Bay and its No. 7 fantasy run defense. Gerald McCoy and Co. will key on Gurley, who is ranked as our RB9 for Week 3. Consider the second-year back as a low-end RB1.
Week 2 vs. Seattle
Todd Gurley rushed for just 47 yards on 17 carries in the Rams' 28-0 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. Los Angeles punted 10 times and turned the ball over three times on its 13 possessions. The Rams' offensive line did Gurley zero favors and fantasy owners have every right to be concerned that L.A.'s offensive ineptitude will render the running back a bust this season.
That said, if you drafted Gurley with one of the top three overall picks in fantasy this season, you're not going to bench him after one week. Plus, it's not as if the Rams' offensive line was any better a year ago when Gurley finished as fantasy's No. 5 running back.
Even though Gurley has a tough matchup versus the No. 1 ranked fantasy run defense this week versus Seattle, he's all the Rams have on offense. They'll continue to rely on him no matter what the scoreboard says and with him ranked as our RB10, keep him in your lineup for Week 2.
Week 1 at San Francisco
In just 13 games last season, Todd Gurley rushed 229 times for 1,106 yards with 10 touchdowns, while also adding 21 receptions for 188 yards as a rookie. Now imagine what Gurley can do playing a full season. The Rams have one of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL, their offensive line has multiple holes, and their passing game is woefully inefficient. But Gurley is so good that it doesn't matter what's around him. Ranked as our No. 1 running back in both PPR and standard formats, Gurley is a must start on Monday night versus the 49ers.
Fantasy Upside
Todd Gurley was named the Associated Press' 2015 Offensive Rookie of the Year despite starting just 12 games after coming off ACL surgery. He led all rookies in rushing yards (1,106), yards per carry (4.8) and touchdowns (10), while finishing as fantasy's RB5. He did sit out Week 17 with turf toe, but should be 100 percent by the start of the 2016 season. With Case Keenum or rookie Jared Goff set to start under center, Gurley will face plenty of stacked boxes this season, but that didn't deter him a year ago when opponents knew the Rams had to lean on Gurley in order to move the ball offensively. After he was targeted just 26 times as a rookie, look for OC Rob Boras to utilize Gurley more as a receiver, which only boosts his fantasy appeal. He should also see a bump in his overall touches after averaging just under 20 touches per week in 2015.
Fantasy Downside
Gurley rushed for a combined 706 yards in five games last season, which equated to 64 percent of his total production in 2015. Outside of the aforementioned injuries, there are two main concerns with Gurley and they're somewhat related. The first concern is unless Goff is the second-coming of Andrew Luck, opposing defenses will be able to sell out to stop the Rams running game again in 2016. If the one-dimensional Rams fall behind early, they'll be forced to throw to get back into games, which could suppress Gurley's overall production. This exact scenario happened in back-to-back games last season when the Rams fell behind 31-7 to the Bengals in Week 12 and 24-3 to the Cardinals in Week 13. In those two games, Gurley rushed for just 60 yards on a combined 18 carries. If Los Angeles doesn't develop better weapons around Gurley, he could either wear down or break down due to a heavy workload.
2016 Bottom Line
Despite the concerns listed in the "Fantasy Downside" section, Gurley still merits first-round consideration. If the Rams want to be at least somewhat competitive this season, they'll have to feed him consistently on a weekly basis. Gurley's current ADP in both 10 and 12-team leagues is 1.05 and he's even being selected as the No. 1 overall pick, on average, in CBS leagues. While the top overall pick might be a reach, there's no question Gurley should come off the board within the first seven selections of your draft. He has as much fantasy potential as any player in the league.
Week 17 at San Francisco
Todd Gurley rushed 19 times for 85 yards and a touchdown in the Rams' upset win over the Seahawks in Week 17. Gurley fumbled after hurdling Seattle safety Earl Thomas in the second half, but fortunately for the rookie running back his center Tim Barnes recovered the loose ball (one of two fumble recoveries for Barnes on that drive alone). Gurley had re-emerged as a legit RB1 over the past month after the Rams' offensive line started playing better. But a foot injury caused him to miss practice this week and he was downgraded to doubtful on Sunday. The Rams aren't going to risk further damage to their most important offensive player in a meaningless game. Tre Mason (RB16) will start Sunday versus the 49ers and share carries with Benny Cunningham (RB31).
Week 16 at Seattle
Todd Gurley rushed 21 times for 48 yards and a touchdown while also catching both of his targets for 31 yards in the Rams Week 15 win over the Bucs. Tampa Bay did a nice job limiting Gurley, but then allowed Case Keenum to complete 14-of-17 passes for 234 yards and two touchdowns. Gurley leads all rookies with nine touchdowns this season, and became the first Rams rookie to rush for 1,000 yards since Jerome Bettis accomplished the feat in 1993. The problem for this week is that Gurley faces a Seattle defense that ranks No. 10 against fantasy running backs this season. Still a viable RB2, Gurley ranks as our RB17 for Week 16.
Week 15 vs. Tampa Bay
Todd Gurley rushed for 140 yards and two touchdowns while also catching one pass for an additional seven yards in the Rams Week 14 win over the Lions. He was held in check in the first half, but rumbled for 127 yards after halftime. His longest gain came on a 49-yard run that proceeded a five-yard touchdown. He banged his knee in the fourth quarter and had to come out of the game, but he gained plenty of rest this week and is on track to play Thursday night versus the Bucs. After falling to RB2 status over the past month, Gurley will be a low-end RB1 versus Tampa Bay, which owns the No. 9 fantasy defense versus running backs this season. If the Rams offensive line can play as well this Thursday as it did in the second half last Sunday, Gurley should produce for fantasy owners this week. He ranks as our RB10 for Week 15.
Week 14 vs. Detroit
Todd Gurley rushed nine times for 41 yards in the Rams Week 13 loss to the Cardinals. It was same story, different week for Gurley and the Rams. The offensive line has been decimated by injuries and poor play, which has limited Gurley's production in the running game. Some have suggested that Gurley has hit the rookie wall but the only thing that he's hitting is opposing defenders that are meeting him in the backfield. Simply put, St. Louis' offensive line is a disaster and has severely limited Gurley's production. An effective passing game would go a long way to open things up for Gurley on the ground but quarterback and receiver play has been horrendous in St. Louis as well. (And a change at offensive coordinator, which the Rams made this week by firing Frank Cignetti and replacing him with tight ends coach Rob Boras, isn't going to help.) Now longer a RB1, Gurley ranks as our RB15 for Week 14. View him as a RB2 only.
Week 13 vs. Arizona
Todd Gurley rushed for just 19 yards on nine carries in the Rams' Week 12 loss to the Bengals. He also caught one of two targets for 11 additional yards. St. Louis' banged up offensive line is killing Gurley's production. The Rams running backs are consistently being met in holes by linebackers that are running free because St. Louis' offensive linemen aren't getting off their initial blocks and to the second level. Without an effective offensive line and quarterback (coupled with the fact that the Rams are being forced to play from behind), Gurley's fantasy stock has taken a massive hit over the past few weeks. No longer a bona fide top 5 running back, Gurley should be viewed as a low-end RB1 in deeper leagues. He ranks as our RB12 for Week 13. The Rams will host the Cardinals on Sunday.
Week 12 at Cincinnati
Todd Gurley rushed 25 times for 66 yards and one touchdown in the Rams Week 11 loss to the Ravens. Gurley was hampered due to several starters being out along St. Louis' offensive line, and was facing one of the NFL's top run defenses. He'll also be hurt moving forward by one of the least efficient passing attacks in the NFL, one that makes the Rams too one-dimensional. Still, even with opponents loading the box to slow down Gurley, he's a must-start in all formats. He ranks as our RB2 for Week 12. He has a tough matchup versus Cincinnati, but he needs to be in your lineup.
