Week 6 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Todd Gurley posted his first dud of the season, rushing 14 times for 43 yards in the Rams’ Week 5 loss to the Seahawks. He also lost a fumble as the Rams turned the ball over five times on the day. The day got off to a rough start for Gurley, who appeared to score a touchdown on the team’s opening drive but instead fumbled off the pylon. The Seahawks did a great job containing Gurley and forcing Jared Goff to beat them.
Gurley is back on the RB1 radar this week as the Rams travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars. The Jags have an upstart defense but they’ve struggled against the run this season. They rank as the No. 28 fantasy defense against running backs. Ranked as our RB4 for Week 6, make sure Gurley is in your lineup this Sunday.
Week 5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Todd Gurley was a monster last week in Dallas, rushing 23 times for 121 yards while catching 7-of-8 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown in the Rams' victory over the Cowboys. Jared Goff has received praise for making leaps-and-bounds improvement from his rookie year to his sophomore campaign, but Gurley is the Rams' offense. He's averaged 18.46 points per game in standard leagues and 23.45 PPG in PPR formats. Through the quarter mark of the season, Gurley is an MVP candidate.
The Rams will host the Seahawks on Sunday. The matchup doesn't look great on paper but Seattle actually ranks No. 24 against fantasy running backs so fire up Gurley as an RB1 this weekend. He ranks as our RB3 for Week 5.
Week 4 at Dallas Cowboys
Todd Gurley was a beast in Week 3, rushing 28 times for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns while also catching 5-of-7 targets for 36 yards and an additional score. Gurley burned fantasy owners that drafted him in the top three last season, but he’s been a different back in Sean McVay’s offense. One of the biggest differences in Gurley this season has been his usage in the passing game. He was a bell cow back under Jeff Fisher the last two seasons, but now he’s a bell cow back that also has an impact in the passing game.
Ranked as our RB4 for Week 4, fire up Gurley as an RB1 Sunday when the Rams visit the Cowboys. Dallas ranks as fantasy’s No. 25 defense against running backs so the matchup is ripe for the picking.
Week 3 at San Francisco
Todd Gurley rushed for 88 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries while also catching 3 of his 4 targets for 48 additional yards and a score in the Rams' Week 2 loss to Washington. While he did fumble twice, losing one, Gurley flashed some of the ability we saw as a rookie. In fact, his rushing total was the highest he's posted since Week 14 of his rookie season in 2015. Gurley even leaped over a defender before diving for the pylon on his second touchdown run of the day.
Now that he's more involved in the passing game (he's on pace for 832 receiving yards, which would trump his previous two seasons combined), Gurley is a viable RB1 again. Ranked as our RB5 for Week 3, fire him up as an RB1 on Thursday night when the Rams visit the 49ers. San Francisco ranks dead last against fantasy running backs, so the matchup doesn't get any better for Gurley.
Week 2 vs. Washington
Todd Gurley rushed 19 times for 40 yards and a touchdown in the Rams' blowout victory over the Colts in Week 1. He also caught 5 passes for an additional 56 yards after being targeted 6 times in the passing game. On the day, Gurley finished with 13.05 points in standard and 17.03 in PPR, although that production was more a result of volume than anything. Gurley managed just 1 yard on 8 carries in the second half and looked as inefficient running as he did a year ago. That said, he salvaged his fantasy day with 5 receptions and his second-quarter touchdown run.
The Rams host Washington in Week 2. This should be an excellent matchup for Gurley, who ranks as our RB10. Washington ranks No. 28 against fantasy running backs, so fire up Gurley as a low-end RB1 this Sunday.
Week 1 vs. Indianapolis Colts
After finishing as fantasy's RB5 as a rookie in 2015, Todd Gurley was a bust in his sophomore season. He rushed 278 times for just 885 yards (3.2 yards per carry) with only 6 touchdowns. Gurley did double his receiving output from a year ago, catching 43 passes for 327 yards, but it wasn't enough to merit taking him with a top-five pick last year.
Gurley has a nice matchup against the Colts in Week 1. Indianapolis ranks as fantasy's No. 24 defense against running backs and underwent a massive remodel this offseason. Out of the 11 players that the Colts started in Week 1 last season against the Lions, only one remains on the active roster (T.J. Green). If this year's unit is anything like the 2016 version (which allowed 4.7 yards per rushing attempt and 382.9 yards per game), then Gurley should run wild on Sunday. Ranked as our No. 7 running back for Week 1, fire up Gurley as an RB1 in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Despite playing only 13 games as a rookie in 2015, Todd Gurley finished as fantasy’s RB5 thanks to his 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns on 229 carries. That production enticed plenty of fantasy owners to select him with a top five pick, but Gurley and the Rams offense struggled mightily. The team had two major issues a year ago, both of which may have been corrected. The first problem was Jeff Fisher, who struggled year-after-year to field a competitive offense. Gone is Fisher, fired midseason last year, and in is Sean McVay, one of the more creative young offensive minds in football. The other huge issue that impacted the Rams as a whole, and Gurley individually, is that the offensive line was dreadful. The team upgraded its left tackle spot by signing free agent Andrew Whitworth to replace mega-bust Greg Robinson. The presence of McVay and Whitworth alone is enough to provide optimism that Gurley is headed for a bounce back season. He also remains the centerpiece of the Rams’ offense.
Fantasy Downside
Gurley was one of the biggest fantasy busts in the league last season and it wasn’t all due to Fisher’s incompetence and an offensive line that couldn’t open holes in the run game. Even dating back to his breakout rookie season, Gurley wasn’t breaking off long runs and was often bottled up. Last year, his longest run was only 24 yards. He finished with just 885 yards on 278 carries, good for a paltry 3.2-yards-per-carry average. Plus, while Whitworth provides a significant upgrade at left tackle, the Rams still have plenty of question marks along the rest of their offensive line. Rodger Saffold and John Sullivan have extensive injury history, Rob Havenstein is switching to guard after spending two seasons at right tackle, and Jamon Brown is kicking outside to tackle after he was drafted as a guard. If QB Jared Goff doesn’t make strides in his development, defenses will once again stack the box to stop Gurley.
2017 Bottom Line
Improvements in play-calling and along the offensive line provide optimism that Gurley will bounce back from his disastrous 2016 campaign. That said, which Todd Gurley will fantasy owners get this season? Will it be the 2015 version or the one that finished as RB20 in 2016 despite being a top-5 pick? In our pre-season rankings, Gurley is our RB16 and his current ADP in 10-team leagues is 2.08. The good news for fantasy owners that are willing to roll the dice on Gurley is that the carries will be there. The Rams are devoid of talent at the skill positions, so Gurley will again be the centerpiece of the offense. As a late second round pick, he might be worth the gamble in standard formats. That said, in PPR leagues, it’s recommended to wait until the third round before targeting a running back that didn’t catch many passes in his first two seasons.
Week 17 vs. Arizona
Todd Gurley rushed 23 times for 67 yards and a touchdown while adding three catches for 20 yards in the Rams' Week 16 loss to the 49ers. The score was nice, but Gurley was facing the league's worst rush defense and couldn't even muster 75 yards. The Rams' offensive line is the biggest culprit in Gurley's dismal sophomore season, but he also hasn't shown the same power and agility that he did as a rookie. The Rams will finish their season at home against the Cardinals on Sunday. Arizona owns the No. 6 defense against fantasy running backs this season and with Gurley ranked as our RB14, he's nothing more than a mid-range RB2. Even if he goes off against the Cardinals, Gurley will finish the season as one of fantasy's biggest busts.
Week 16 vs. San Francisco
Todd Gurley was once again bottled up, rushing 14 times for just 38 yards in the Rams' Week 15 loss to the Seahawks. Gurley doesn't look like he has the same burst that he had a year ago when he burst onto the scene as a rookie, but his offensive line, quarterback and offensive coordinator do him no favors either. 2016 is simply a lost year for Gurley and his fantasy owners, who have received next-to-nothing from the first-rounder. Still, he's worth starting on Saturday when the Rams host the 49ers, who rank dead last against fantasy running backs. Gurley is our RB9 and can be viewed as a low-end RB1 for Week 16.
Week 15 at Seattle
Todd Gurley rushed 16 times for 61 yards and a touchdown, while also catching three passes for 22 additional yards in the Rams' Week 14 loss to the Falcons. Gurley saved fantasy owners by reaching the end zone early in the fourth quarter, but he also suppressed his day by losing a fumble in the second half. The Rams continue to get zero push in the running game and often fall behind, negating Gurley's impact. He had a cake matchup last week against Atlanta's leaky run defense and he still couldn't deliver a big performance (which isn't his fault). Ranked as our RB27 for Week 15, Gurley will face the No. 1 fantasy defense against running backs when the Rams visit the Seahawks on Thursday night. He's no longer a viable starting option this week, so avoid Gurley if he you can.
