Fantasy Upside
Even though Tre Mason proved he can make an impact in the Rams run-first offense last season, Jeff Fisher and company selected Todd Gurley with the 10th overall pick in April's draft. That is because Gurley is a unique talent with the potential to be a workhorse back in the same mold as Adrian Peterson. As soon as he is 100 percent recovered from the ACL tear he suffered last November, Gurley will be the featured back in St. Louis. And due to the volume (both on the ground and in the screen game) he'll receive in Fisher's run-heavy offense, Gurley's upside is that of a RB1 in fantasy.
Fantasy Downside
The downside is Gurley has yet to participate in any contact drills, won't play in the preseason and will likely be eased into action once he's ready to play. The worst-case scenario is owners draft him at his current ADP (5.06/4.10), St. Louis eases him into the season and then he winds up in a committee with Mason all year. And that's not even the worst-case scenario. The worst-case scenario is he suffers a setback and then owners will have burned a valuable pick instead of playing it safe in their drafts. Another factor to keep in mind is the Rams will be starting two rookies along the right side of their offensive line, an inexperienced center (most likely Barrett Jones) and a second-year left tackle in Greg Robinson. It could be months before the Rams offensive line gels, which will have a direct impact on how effective the running game is as a whole.
Bottom Line
There is little doubt Gurley is a RB1 in the making, but it is unclear when the Rams will turn him loose. Seeing as how he is not expected to play in the preseason, it is safe to assume Gurley won't have much of an impact in the first month of the season. But owners willing to roll the dice could be rewarded with a dynamic player in the second half of the year assuming he doesn't suffer a setback. Gurley currently ranks as our RB29. If he winds up slipping into the sixth-round or later, then the value will outweigh the risk. But even then, owners may want to consider handcuffing the pick with Mason, who is currently going in the seventh (12-team) and ninth (10-team) rounds.
