Week 9 at Cleveland Browns
Patrick Mahomes did it again. He had his seventh straight 300-yard passing game while finishing with four touchdowns for the third game in a row. He now has at least three touchdowns in every game but two this season, which is just absurd production.
He does get a tough task this week against the Browns, but we wouldn't worry too much. Cleveland has allowed big games to QBs this season, and the reason they're so tough is due to forced turnovers. Expect Mahomes to be just fine, and continue to use him as a must-start option in fantasy.
Week 8 vs. Denver Broncos
Patrick Mahomes had his eighth-straight 300-yard game last week putting up another ridiculous performance. He had four touchdowns, making it the fifth game this season he's had at least three scores. He's the best QB in fantasy right now and shows no signs of slowing down.
He does get a somewhat challenging matchup this week as the Broncos have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs. But Denver has been far from shutdown, and offers no reason to cause a panic. Mahomes is an easy must-start option in Week 8.
Week 7 vs. Cincinatti Bengals
Patrick Mahomes continued his hot streak last week, which has lasted all season long. He's thrown for over 300 yards in five straight games and has scored at least three touchdowns in 4/6 games this season. There's really not much else to say about Mahomes — he's been really, really good.
He should continue his success this week in a favorable matchup against the Bengals. Cincy is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, giving up at least 300 yards in 4/6 games. Expect another dominating effort from Mahomes, who should be a must-start option in Week 7.
Week 6 at New England Patriots
As we expected, Patrick Mahomes had his worst fantasy output of the season last week against a tough Jaguars defense. He actually played fairly well, finishing with 313 yards. But he had no passing TDs, and two interceptions (he did have a rushing TD). He now has four straight games with 300 passing yards, though, so he should be fine.
This week he could get into an offensive showdown against the Patriots as these two teams are in the top 10 for points per game this season. New England has allowed two 300-yard games so far, which means Mahomes should have no problems continuing his success. Start him with confidence as a strong QB1.
Week 5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
This week presents an interesting challenge for Patrick Mahomes owners. He's been the second overall scorer in fantasy this season, but he goes up against the toughest secondary in the NFL. The Jaguars have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs, the third-fewest yards per attempt (5.8), the fewest yards per game (164), and the fewest touchdowns (3).
It's certainly not a good matchup on paper, but it's also very difficult to bench someone who has been so dominant all season. Expect a down game from Mahomes this week, but he still has QB1 value.
Week 4 at Denver Broncos
Another week, another big game for Patrick Mahomes. He put up 314 yards and scored three touchdowns in what was statistically his worst game of the season. So when the bar is that high, you know you're having a good year. He set the NFL record for most touchdowns through the first three games (13) and he doesn't appear to be slowing down.
He gets a decent matchup this week against the Broncos. Denver is allowing the seventh-highest yards per attempt mark (8.2) this season, which bodes well for Mahomes' strong arm. Expect another big game from the young QB. We like him as a must-start QB option.
Week 3 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Patrick Mahomes has been the star of the NFL season so far, setting a record for most touchdowns through the first two games (10). Last week was just an insane performance as he completed 23-of-28 passes for 326 yards, 6 TDs and zero interceptions. Now, fantasy owners want to know: Will it continue?
We don't see an immediate reason why it has to end. We don't see him scoring six times each game, but he does get a favorable matchup this week against the 49ers. San Francisco has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, so Mahomes should keep up his hot streak. We like him a lot this week. He's a must-start option.
Week 2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Patrick Mahomes looked incredible in his first game, finishing with 256 yards on just 15 completions (over 17 yards per completion). He added four scores and zero turnovers, while also rushing for 21 yards. Granted, he did so against a banged-up Chargers defense, but he certainly delivered last week.
He'll look to keep up his high production in Week 2 against the Steelers, who played fairly well against the pass in Week 1 vs. the Browns. But there's certainly nothing to be afraid of when it comes to Pittsburgh. We like Mahomes as one of the top QBs this week in fantasy.
Week 1 at Los Angeles Chargers
Patrick Mahomes begins 2018 as the Chiefs starting quarterback. While we like his potential for the season, he gets a rough start in Week 1. The Chargers have a strong defense, especially in their secondary, which will make it difficult for Mahomes.
He has weapons like Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins, who can break a big play at any moment, so there's always a possibility for some scoring. Overall, though, Mahomes will likely struggle this week. He's a good QB for 2018, but maybe just not right now in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Alex Smith is gone, which means Patrick Mahomes will take over as Kansas City’s starter this season. The second-year quarterback has a strong arm and plenty of talent around him. The supporting cast of Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Kareem Hunt helped Smith become the fourth-highest scoring QB in fantasy last season. And the Chiefs even added speedster Sammy Watkins to the mix, which should make for a solid offensive group.
Fantasy Downside
While Mahomes isn’t technically a rookie, we can sort of view him as one since he doesn’t have a full season of playing under his belt. Rookie QBs have a hard time producing at a high level, as 34 out of 48 first-round QBs drafted since 2000 have failed to rank above 15 in total fantasy points. Obviously, Mahomes factors into that stat, so the numbers aren’t perfect, but it just gives you an idea of what to expect from a first-year QB.
2018 Bottom Line
There’s a lot to be excited about with Mahomes. He’s a great talent, who has even better talent around him, and a solid coaching staff with Andy Reid leading the way. He’s available in the later rounds, making him a solid sleeper choice for those wanting to wait on a quarterback. Mahomes has a very high ceiling in 2018, but it’s also important to not let your expectations run wild.
