Week 1 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Patrick Mahomes amazed everyone last season, throwing for 50 touchdowns (rushing for two more) on his way to an MVP award. Nothing major has changed on offense from last season to this year, unless you count the absence of Kareem Hunt, so Mahomes should be in line for another huge year. He may not replicate what he did in 2018, but it wouldn't be too surprising to see him come close.
He gets a tough first matchup against the Jaguars, who allowed the second-fewest passing yards and passing touchdowns in the league last season. Mahomes had his worst game of the season against Jacksonville last year, finishing with no passing touchdowns and two interceptions. But he didn't exactly struggle, as he did have 313 yards in the contest. Even though it's not a great matchup, Mahomes is still a must-start QB1 choice.
Fantasy Upside
The upside on Patrick Mahomes is pretty obvious. He finished last season with the most fantasy points by a quarterback ever (while also finishing first overall in all positions in 2019). He had a ridiculous year, throwing for over 5,000 yards with 50 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions. He threw for over 300 yards in 10 games while also having 10 games of 3+ passing touchdowns. He even had seven games with more than four passing touchdowns.
Fantasy Downside
The big question mark facing Mahomes and the Chiefs this season is the status of Tyreek Hill. He will likely face some sort of suspension from the league, and his absence would greatly impact Mahomes’ value. Even with Hill facing no punishment, there’s a likely chance we see some sort of regression from Mahomes. It’s incredibly difficult to keep up the same production he had in 2018. But if Hill misses time, there will no doubt be a regression. Hill is key to what the Chiefs do on offense as only one other receiver on the team had over 500 receiving yards in 2018.
2019 Bottom Line
Even if Hill misses time, Mahomes should be fine. It would hurt his value, no doubt, but Mahomes is too good to fall off by the absence of one player. He should be viewed as the top quarterback option this season. He was so consistently productive a season ago, that it’s hard to see him taking a hard fall in 2019.
Week 19 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Patrick Mahomes finished the season with 50 touchdown passes to just 12 interceptions while also adding two scores on the ground. He was the top fantasy football scorer on the season and there's no reason why he'd slow down now that the playoffs are here.
He doesn't get a great matchup this week against the Colts, who held quarterbacks to one or no passing touchdowns in each of the last six games. Indy held opposing QBs to under 10 fantasy points in three of the last five regular season games.
But this is Mahomes we're talking about, and it's hard to see him have a complete dud of a game. His floor is so high that he's the top QB choice this week vs. Indy.
Week 17 vs. Oakland Raiders
Patrick Mahomes has slowed down a tad from his earlier season production, but he's still been pretty amazing. He finished with his 10th game with three touchdowns or more last week while compiling over 300 total yards (33 yards on the ground) for the 12th time.
He gets a great matchup this week against the Raiders a team he had 347 yards and four touchdowns against earlier in the year. Kansas City will play their starters in this one, so Mahomes should be viewed as a must-start QB1.
Week 16 at Seattle Seahawks
Patrick Mahomes had a season-low 243 yards last week, although he played pretty well in the game while finishing with two scores. Mahomes has now had two of his four worst games in back-to-back weeks, but they weren't even that bad, which means Mahomes' floor is the ceiling for most QBs.
He does get a somewhat tough matchup this week against the Seahawks, but there's no real reason to worry. Even when Mahomes is bad, he's good. He's a must-start QB1 option against Seattle.
Week 15 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Even though it was a bad matchup last week, Patrick Mahomes went off for 377 passing yards. He finished with two scores and an interception as well. This was one of Mahomes' worst fantasy outputs this season, which really just speaks to how incredible he's been in 2018 when that's considered his floor.
Mahomes gets another unfavorable matchup this week against the Chargers. L.A. has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs. But as we saw last week, Mahomes is basically matchup proof. He proved that in Week 1 against the Chargers when he finished with four scores. And with no Spencer Ware this week (likely), the Chiefs will rely even more on Mahomes to make plays. He's a must-start QB1.
Week 14 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Patrick Mahomes fell just shy of 300 passing yards (295), but he led the team in rushing with 52 yards on the ground. Oh, and he had four touchdown passes. That's now his SEVENTH game with four touchdown passes or more, which is a ridiculous stat.
He does get a tough matchup this week against the Ravens who are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs. Baltimore has allowed just one touchdown or less in seven games, and are giving up the second-fewest pass yards per game (194) in the league. Expect Mahomes' numbers to drop a bit, but he should still be viewed as a QB1 based on the season he's had.
Week 13 at Oakland Raiders
Patrick Mahomes had a bye week to recover from his absolutely insane game against the Rams where he finished with 478 yards and six touchdowns. He did have a season-high three interceptions as well, but I'm sure fantasy owners were willing to forgive him for that. Mahomes now has at least 300 yards in every game but two, and has at least three touchdowns in every game but three.
He gets a good matchup this week against the Raiders, and there's really no reason to doubt Mahomes at this point. He's a must-start QB1 option.
Week 11 at Los Angeles Rams
As expected, Patrick Mahomes' numbers dropped a bit last week. His streak of eight 300-yard passing games came to an end as he finished with 249 yards. He had two scores in the game and added 21 yards on the ground, so even when he plays "bad" he's still really good.
He gets a favorable matchup this week against the Rams in what could be a very high-scoring game. These are two of the best offenses in football with defenses that have given up some big plays. With what we've seen out of Mahomes this season, it'd be insane to view him as anything other than a must-start QB1.
Week 10 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Patrick Mahomes continued his ridiculous season with another absurd stat line, finishing with 375 yards and three touchdowns (with one interception). He now has 300+ yards in eight straight games, and 3+ touchdowns in all but two games this season.
He does get a tough matchup this week against the Cardinals, however. Arizona has allowed a league-low eight touchdowns on the season, and has only allowed two games with multiple passing touchdowns. We saw Mahomes "struggle" earlier in the year against a tough Jaguars defense where he failed to score through the air (he did get a rushing score). Mahomes is obviously still a QB1, but don't be surprised to see a dip in production.
