Week 6 at Buffalo Bills
Patrick Mahomes topped 300 yards for the third time this season last week, and also had his third 3+ touchdown game. He's also added some nice additional points through scrambling, averaging 32.25 yards in his last four games. Expect Mahomes to keep up his high level of production in Week 6 in a favorable matchup against Buffalo. The Bills are No. 30 in aFPA quarterbacks, so there's no obvious signs of a down game. We're expecting another 300-yard, multi-touchdown performance from Mahomes. He's a must-start option in Week 6.
Week 5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Patrick Mahomes performed well last week considering he had a season-low 29 pass attempts. Despite not throwing as much, Mahomes still finished with 236 yards and two touchdowns while adding 28 yards on the ground. He's now scored at least twice in every game this season. This week he'll draw a tough matchup against the Raiders who are seventh in aFPA to quarterbacks. The Raiders have only given up five passing touchdowns to quarterbacks in four games despite playing some strong QBs in Drew Brees, Cam Newton and Josh Allen. Still, Mahomes is matchup proof for the most part, and should be viewed as a must-start QB1 on a weekly basis.
Week 4 vs. Patriots
Patrick Mahomes showed why he's one of fantasy's best quarterbacks last week with a dominating performance against a good Ravens defense. Mahomes finished with 385 yards and four touchdowns in the air while adding 26 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He's now scored 10 total touchdowns through three games, and has topped 300 passing yards in consecutive weeks. He gets another bad matchup this week against the Patriots, but as he proved last week, Mahomes is mostly matchup proof. Trust him as your QB1 in Week 4.
Week 3 at Baltimore Ravens
Patrick Mahomes had a solid Week 2 performance in a tough matchup against the Chargers. Mahomes finished with 302 yards and two touchdowns while adding 54 yards on the ground. He hasn't quite been the dominant player we've seen in the past, but he's still been a top-10 fantasy QB so far in 2020. He'll draw a tough matchup against the Ravens in Week 3, but the matchup shouldn't concern fantasy owners. Mahomes is too dominant to rest, and should be viewed as a must-start QB1.
Week 2 at Los Angeles Chargers
As expected, Patrick Mahomes started 2020 with a solid game, finishing with 211 passing yards and three touchdowns. Things could get a little more complicated this week as Mahomes gets a tough matchup against the Chargers. Mahomes struggled against Los Angeles last season with two of his three worst passer rating games against the Chargers. He finished under 200 passing yards in both games, only scored once in each game and threw an interception in each game. But even though Mahomes didn't dominate against the Chargers in 2019, he's still a strong QB1 play this week. His ceiling is so high on any given week that it'd be ridiculous to even consider benching him. Just know that you may not get extremely high production from Mahomes this week.
Week 1 vs. Houston Texans
Patrick Mahomes wasn't as dominant in 2020 as he was in 2019, most noticeably his drop from 50 passing touchdowns to 26. But he dealt with injuries, and was without Tyreek Hill for four games. He was dominant in the postseason, finishing with over 300 total yards in all three games while scoring 12 touchdowns in that span. One of those postseason games was against the Texans, who Mahomes faces in Week 1. Against Houston, Mahomes finished with 321 passing yards, 53 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns. Mahomes is an elite option and should be viewed as a must-start quarterback in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Patrick Mahomes was still dominant in his second season, proving his first season as a full-time starter wasn’t a fluke. He finished as the No. 8 overall QB despite missing two games, and only playing 20 snaps in one. His fantasy points per game average was second in the league (behind Lamar Jackson) if you exclude the game he barely played in Week 7. He had nine games with three total touchdowns or more last season (including postseason). He also cut down on his turnovers, going from 12 in 2018 to just 5 in 2019.
It’s hard to find that high level of consistency anywhere else among quarterbacks.
Fantasy Downside
Mahomes regressed in year two from his first full season as starter. Most notably were his touchdowns, which went from 50 to 26. He also dropped about 30 average yards per game. Mahomes had a hot-and-cold 2019 on a game-to-game basis as he had seven games with one passing touchdown or less.
2020 Bottom Line
Mahomes had a worse 2019 than many projected, but he was still one of the best fantasy quarterbacks you can have. He had to deal with his No. 1 target (Tyreek Hill) missing four games, a knee injury and a hand injury all last season. With another year of development and strong weapons around him, Mahomes should improve his overall fantasy numbers in 2020. He should be viewed as one of the top scoring threats this season.
Week 17 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Patrick Mahomes had a solid game last week, finishing with 251 passing yards and three touchdowns (one rushing, two passing). It's his sixth game this season with three or more touchdowns. He hasn't been quite as dominant as his 2018 season, but Mahomes has still been a productive QB1 in 2019. He does get a tough matchup this week against the Chargers, a team he struggled against earlier in the year (182 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). Even though it's a bad matchup, Mahomes should still be viewed as a must-start QB1 given his ridiculous ceiling.
Week 16 at Chicago Bears
After a stretch of bad games, Patrick Mahomes looked more like his 2018 self last week, finishing with 340 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. It was just his second game with multiple passing touchdowns since Week 6. His numbers could drop a bit this week as he gets a tough matchup against the Bears who have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to QBs. But Mahomes is too talented to even consider sitting him unless you have another elite option. Mahomes should be viewed as a must-start QB1 in Week 16.
Week 15 vs. Denver Broncos
Patrick Mahomes wasn't dominant last week, but that was to be expected with such a tough matchup. He's been on a bit of a cold streak lately, scoring just one passing touchdown in each of his last three games while averaging 213 yards in that span (also, two of his three interceptions on the season came in these games). His struggles could continue again this week in another tough matchup against the Broncos. Denver is allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game. Still, Mahomes' ceiling is so high that he needs to be viewed as a must-start QB1.
