Fantasy Upside
Patrick Mahomes finished as the No. 4 QB last season in total points and No. 1 in average points per week (he missed Week 17 for rest). He improved on his 2019 season as he finished with 38 passing touchdowns compared to 26, and had 709 more passing yards. Even his rushing numbers improved with a career-high 308 yards (or 20.5 per game). Mahomes has his top weapons returning in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, and he’ll be playing behind a much improved offensive line in 2021.
Fantasy Downside
While the Chiefs have arguably the best receiving duo in Hill and Kelce, that could also be the team’s downfall. No other player had more than 45 receptions for the Chiefs last season, and only one other player finished with more than 500 yards. One injury to Hill or Kelce could slow Mahomes’ production, especially with the loss of Sammy Watkins in the offseason.
2021 Bottom Line
There isn’t much to dislike about Mahomes in 2021. His ceiling is being the No. 1 scorer among QBs and his floor is similar to what he did in 2019, when he still finished as the No. 8 QB despite missing two games and dealing with injuries. He’s arguably the most talented quarterback in the league in a pass-heavy offense with top-tier playmakers. He should be viewed as the No. 1 QB option heading into this season.
Week 16 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Patrick Mahomes had another dominating game last week, finishing with 254 passing yards with three touchdowns. He also added 37 yards on the ground. Mahomes had a weird two-game stretch where the Chiefs didn't pass much, but since then he's been magic. Since Week 8, Mahomes is averaging 366.1 passing yards, 17.4 rushing yards and 2.9 touchdowns per game. There's not much else to say about him in Week 16 other than he's a must-start QB1. He gets a favorable matchup against the Falcons, who have allowed the second-most passing yards and sixth-most passing TDs (to QBs) in the league.
Week 15 at New Orleans Saints
Patrick Mahomes had a strange game last week as he threw three interceptions, more than he had in the entire season (2) heading into the game. Despite some struggles, Mahomes still had a strong game with 393 passing yards and two touchdowns. He's averaging 384.8 passing yards and 2.8 touchdowns over his last six games. He does get a tough matchup against the Saints this week, who have allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards this season, but Mahomes should be viewed as a matchup-proof QB. He's playing too well to consider benching him. He's a must-start QB1 in Week 15.
Week 14 at Miami Dolphins
Patrick Mahomes nearly had a monster game last week, as he had two touchdowns get called back (one wasn't reviewed, the other had a penalty). He still played well, though, finishing with 318 passing yards, one touchdown, 26 rushing yards and no turnovers. Also, his streak of throwing for 300+ yards while having 40+ pass attempts stays alive. Mahomes gets a pretty tough matchup against the Dolphins this week. Miami has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns and has the fifth-most interceptions in the league. The Dolphins are No. 5 in aFPA to quarterbacks, which causes some concern. But Mahomes has played well in tough matchups before during the season. He's also averaging 383.2 passing yards and three touchdowns per game over his last five games, so it'd be kind of crazy to consider benching him on this hot streak. Mahomes is a must-start QB1 despite the tough matchup.
Week 13 vs. Denver Broncos
Patrick Mahomes has been on an absolute tear lately. Last week he finished with a season-high 462 passing yards with three touchdowns and 28 rushing yards. In his last four games, Mahomes is averaging about 400 passing yards with 14 total touchdowns (3.5 per game) and one interception. As we mentioned last week, when Mahomes gets 40+ pass attempts in a game, it's a good thing as he's topped 300 yards in each of those instances this season. He may fall short of that mark this week, as he faces the Broncos. Mahomes only had 23 pass attempts when he played the Broncos last, resulting in his worst fantasy game of the season. Mahomes had a season-low of 200 yards, and it was the only game this year where Mahomes had one touchdown. To be fair, though, that was a weird game involving two Kansas City defensive/special teams scores. Mahomes should still be viewed as a must-start QB1 in Week 13.
Week 12 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Patrick Mahomes had another strong game last week, finishing with 348 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The good news is Mahomes topped 40 pass attempts for the third game in a row after a two-game stretch where he finished below 30 attempts. Mahomes has hit 300+ yards passing in every game this season where he's reached 40+ pass attempts (six games). In the four games he hasn't, Mahomes is averaging 218 yards. This week he faces a Bucs defense that's allowed the second-most pass attempts in the league. While the Bucs are a tougher defense (due to their 14 interceptions, second-most in the league), there's a clear path to success for Mahomes in Week 12. He should be viewed as a must-start option this week.
Week 11 at Las Vegas Raiders
Before the Chiefs' Week 10 bye, Patrick Mahomes was on fire, scoring nine total touchdowns while averaging 394 passing yards in his previous two games. Mahomes has been dominant in 2020 with 27 total touchdowns (25 passing, 2 rushing) and just one interception. He's also averaging just under 300 passing yards per game and is even adding in an extra 20 rushing yards per game. In short, Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks available in fantasy right now, and it'd be crazy to even consider benching him. He gets a somewhat tough matchup this week against the Raiders, but he should still be viewed as a must-start option in Week 11.
Week 9 vs. Carolina Panthers
As expected, Patrick Mahomes was able to rip apart the Jets defense en route to a remarkable game. Mahomes became just the sixth quarterback in NFL history to put up 400+ yards, 5 touchdowns, zero interceptions and take zero sacks. Mahomes now has four games this season with three or more touchdowns. Mahomes' only "bad" games in 2020 have been because the Chiefs threw the ball less. That may be the case this week as the Panthers have a strong pass defense and a poor run defense. Still, it'd be crazy to bench Mahomes in any matchup. He's still a must-start QB1 despite the less-than-stellar matchup.
Week 8 vs. New York Jets
Patrick Mahomes had his worst game of the season last week, finishing with an even 200 yards and one touchdown. He set a season-low for passing yards, it's his only game without multiple touchdowns and it's only his second game this season without a rushing attempt. He also set a season-low in passing attempts with 23. This is now his third game in his last four games where he's finished below 30 passing attempts. Mahomes isn't playing poorly, the Chiefs have just started to rely more on their rushing attack. That may be the case this week against the Jets as this game has the chance of being a blowout. But this game also has a chance to see Mahomes put up video game numbers. Mahomes is a must-start QB1 this week.
Week 7 at Denver Broncos
Patrick Mahomes finished with a season-low 26 pass attempts last week, leading to one of his worst fantasy games of the season. But a bad game for Mahomes is a good game for most quarterbacks, as he still finished with 261 total yards (36 rushing) and two touchdowns. He's had multiple touchdowns in every game this season, which has provided a nice floor for the top-tier quarterback. He should have another strong performance this week in a favorable matchup against the Broncos (No. 25 aFPA). Mahomes is a must-start QB1 play in Week 7.
