Week 3 at Indianapolis Colts
Patrick Mahomes didn't have quite the same performance in Week 2 compared to Week 1, but he played well with 235 pass yards, two touchdowns, and no turnovers. He gets a favorable matchup this week against the Colts, who have struggled to contain Davis Mills and Trevor Lawrence through the first two weeks. If Lawrence can finish 25-of-30 passing against the Colts, then Mahomes should have no problems at all. He should continue to be viewed as a must-start QB1 in Week 3.
Week 2 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
No Tyreek Hill, no problem for Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs QB looked like his usual self in Week 1, finishing with 360 yards and five touchdowns with no turnovers. He faces a good Chargers defense in Week 2, but Los Angeles gave up nearly 300 yards and two touchdowns to Derek Carr last week. Mahomes also had success against the Chargers last season with three touchdowns in each of his outings against them, throwing for 260 yards and 410 yards. Long story short, Mahomes should continue to be viewed as a must-start option at QB in Week 2.
Week 1 at Arizona Cardinals
The Chiefs had a lot of turnover this offseason, most notably the loss of WR Tyreek Hill. But Kansas City added a few intriguing weapons such as JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and rookie Skyy Moore. While Mahomes lost his No. 1 option, he gained a more balanced attack, which we saw a lot of in the preseason as Mahomes spread the ball around a lot. Mahomes should still be viewed as an elite option heading into 2022, and that includes in his first matchup vs. the Cardinals. Arizona was a bit of a tough matchup last season, giving up the 8th-fewest average fantasy points to QBs, but you didn't draft Mahomes to bench him in Week 1. He should be viewed as a must-start option.
2022 Fantasy Upside
Patrick Mahomes has been dominant since taking over as the Chiefs starting quarterback in 2018. In the four seasons he’s played, Mahomes has finished as QB1, QB8, QB4 and QB4. Since 2018, Mahomes has the most 300-yard passing games (31), 3-TD passing games (28) and 4-TD passing games (13). For reference, Mahomes has started 63 games in that span, so nearly half of his games have been 300-yard performances. And that’s not even adding in his rushing ability. He has the 7th-most rush yards by a quarterback since 2018, including a career-high 381 yards last season. He still has a strong supporting cast heading into 2022 that includes Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman and 2nd-round rookie Skyy Moore. Even the Chiefs' offensive line is among the best in the league with 4for4’s Justin Edwards listing them at No. 2. Mahomes turns 27 in September, which is typically the age when we see quarterbacks at their peak.
2022 Fantasy Downside
The Chiefs lost a big weapon this offseason with WR Tyreek Hill being traded to the Dolphins. In fact, the Chiefs have a lot of change when it comes to Mahomes’ weapons. Our top three projected WRs for Kansas City this season (Smith-Schuster, Valdes Scantling, Moore) are all new additions. So there could be a bit of a learning curve for Mahomes as he gets adjusted to his new teammates. Mahomes’ other top option, Kelce, also regressed a bit last season and will turn 33 this year, which is when we start to see tight ends decline. We also saw Mahomes become a bit more turnover prone in 2021, throwing a career-high 13 interceptions after throwing a combined 11 interceptions in the two seasons prior.
2022 Bottom Line
The loss of Hill will likely make a dent in Mahomes’ overall production, but it’s hard to see the Chiefs quarterback completely fall off this season. He still has a strong supporting cast around him, and he’s arguably the most talented quarterback in the league. We’re projecting fewer passing yards and passing touchdowns for Mahomes this year, but not much. He should still be viewed as a top five option at quarterback, and has the potential to finish as QB1. There’s a lot different with the Chiefs this season, but Mahomes is still an elite option.
Week 17 at Cincinnati Bengals
Patrick Mahomes is starting to get back on track. After a dip in production throughout most of the season, Mahomes has now delivered three consecutive games with multiple touchdowns while averaging 308.7 pass yards in that stretch. And in better news, he'll be back at full force this week as Travis Kelce returns to the lineup and Tyreek Hill has an extra week to recover from COVID. He faces the Bengals, who on the season have been tough on QBs, but over the past four weeks have given up the 7th-most average fantasy points to quarterbacks. With Mahomes on a hot streak against a struggling defense, we'd feel confident starting the Chiefs QB in Week 17. He'll be a must-start option.
Week 16 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Patrick Mahomes looked much better last week, finishing with 410 pass yards, three touchdowns and 32 rush yards. He did have turnovers, but the rest of his production made up for that. Unfortunately, Mahomes may be in a tough spot this week. His top two playmakers, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, could both be out. Both have been placed on the team's COVID/Reserve list, although there's a chance one or both could be removed from the list by the time the game starts.
On top of that, Mahomes draws a tough Steelers matchup. Pittsburgh has given up the 10th-fewest average fantasy points to quarterbacks. Mahomes should still be viewed as a top 10 QB this week, no matter what happens. He'll be a top-five option if Hill and Kelce are able to go. But it's certainly worth monitoring whether those two remain on the COVID list or not.
Week 15 at Los Angeles Chargers
Patrick Mahomes played well last week, even if it wasn't a monster performance. He finished with 258 yards, two touchdowns and no turnovers while also adding 20 yards on the ground. The Chiefs ended up not relying on Mahomes much in the game as he threw a season-low 24 pass attempts. In fact, it's tied for the third-lowest pass attempts by Mahomes in a game in his career. And it also makes it back-to-back weeks he's finished below 30 pass attempts, something he's done just 12 times total in his career. It's been an odd season for Mahomes. He started the year with 14 passing touchdowns in his first four games. But in the nine games since, he's thrown for 13 touchdowns. Not only are the touchdowns down, but he's tied his career-high in interceptions for the season (12) and there are still four games to go.
This week he faces the Chargers, a team he had some success against earlier in the year (Week 3). In that game, he threw for 260 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. If he's able to match that or come close, he'll be a solid start in fantasy for Week 15. We have him as a top-five option at QB for the week.
Week 14 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Patrick Mahomes' struggling season continued last week as he finished with 184 yards, no passing touchdowns and an interception. Thankfully for fantasy owners, Mahomes did score on the ground. Mahomes' low production was both a result of bad play and limited opportunities. Mahomes finished with 29 pass attempts, which is his lowest this season. It's been a frustrating year for Mahomes owners as the Chiefs QB has now finished with one touchdown or less in five of the last six games. And he's averaged just 218.2 pass yards in those five games. The good news is during that six-game stretch, Mahomes had one game with 406 pass yards and five touchdowns. And that game was against the Raiders, his opponent this week. Mahomes' struggles are real, but he also has arguably the highest ceiling of any QB on a given week. He should still be viewed as a top 10, near top 5 QB in Week 14.
Week 13 vs. Denver Broncos
The "Patrick Mahomes is back" narrative was short-lived as Mahomes struggled ahead of the Chiefs' bye. He finished with just 260 yards with no touchdowns and two turnovers. He's now finished with one touchdown or less in four of his last five games while averaging 226.75 pass yards in those four games. If Mahomes threw for 226 yards in a game, it'd be the 10th-lowest game of his career, which puts into perspective how crazy this slump really is. And there's a chance this slump continues into Week 13 as Mahomes gets a tough matchup vs. the Broncos, who have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. But even though Mahomes has struggled and has a bad matchup, he's also someone who threw for 400+ yards and five touchdowns just two games ago. He should still be viewed as a must-start option in Week 13.
Week 11 vs. Dallas Cowboys
So much for a slump. Patrick Mahomes returned in a big way last week, finishing with 406 pass yards, five pass touchdowns and no turnovers. It's a sharp turnaround from his previous three games where he averaged 215.7 pass yards with two total touchdowns and three turnovers. It was also a reminder that even though Mahomes was in a slump, he's still worthy of starting because his ceiling is so insanely high. That'll be the case again this week as he gets a tough matchup against the Cowboys. Dallas is 9th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs, but we wouldn't worry about that. Mahomes should be viewed as a must-start QB1 in Week 11.
