Week 6 vs. Denver Broncos
Patrick Mahomes got back on track with another solid outing in Week 5, finishing with 281 yards with two touchdowns and no turnovers. Although for the first time this season, Mahomes finished with no rush yards. Mahomes hasn't been completely lights out this season like in past years. In fact he's averaging a career-low 257.4 yards per game so far. But he's scored multiple touchdowns in all but one game and is QB6 so far, so we doubt fantasy owners are complaining too much. This week he draws a matchup against the Broncos who notably gave up 70 points to the Dolphins this season. Denver is 31st in aFPA to QBs, so Mahomes is certainly in a good position. In fact, the only negative about Mahomes this week is that the Chiefs may score too many points leading to him exiting early or running more often. Having said all of that, Mahomes is a clear must-start QB in Week 6.
Week 5 at Minnesota Vikings
Patrick Mahomes had his worst game of the season in Week 4 as he finished with a season-low 203 yards with just one touchdown and two interceptions. It's the first time he's finished without multiple touchdowns in a game this season. On the plus side, though, Mahomes ran for 51 yards in the game and he's now up to 154 rush yards on the season. At this rate, he's on pace for over 650 rushing yards which would crush his previous career high of 381. As for Week 5, though, Mahomes draws a good matchup vs. the Vikings (19th aFPA). Minnesota has given up six passing touchdowns to QBs this season with only one interception. Mahomes should be viewed as a must-start QB1 in Week 5.
Week 4 at New York Jets
Patrick Mahomes lit up the scoreboard in Week 3 as he finished with 272 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He even added 28 yards on the ground as well. It was an impressive showing considering Mahomes only played on 73% of the offensive snaps after exiting early due to a blowout. Mahomes has now scored multiple touchdowns in every game this season while averaging 267.7 pass yards and 34.3 rush yards. This week he faces a talented Jets defense, but not a shutdown defense. Mahomes should continue to put up big numbers as he should be viewed as a must-start option at QB in Week 4.
Week 3 vs Chicago Bears
Patrick Mahomes had a typical Mahomes stat line in Week 2 as he threw for 305 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He also ran for 30 yards, which is notable considering he ran for 45 yards in Week 1. His 75 rush yards so far this season places third among quarterbacks behind only Daniel Jones and Lamar Jackson. Mahomes gets a favorable matchup this week against the Bears where he should be able to continue his high level of production. He should be viewed as a must-start QB in Week 3.
Week 2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Patrick Mahomes himself looked fine in Week 1, but the Chiefs' hodgepodge group of WRs may be an issue. Mahomes was 2-12 with an INT when targeting wide receivers in the second half of Week 1. Overall, though, he had a decent game, finishing with 226 pass yards, two touchdowns and an INT. He also ran for 45 yards. He gets a favorable matchup this week against the Jaguars, who gave up the 6th-most pass yards last season. While Week 1's issues with the wide receivers are a slight concern, this is still Patrick Mahomes we're talking about. Plus, he should get top target Travis Kelce back this week, which will be a huge boost. Mahomes should be viewed as a must-start option at QB.
Week 1 vs. Detroit Lions
Patrick Mahomes begins the 2023 season vs. a preseason favorite in the Lions. Despite a successful season last year from Detroit, the Lions defense actually gave up the most fantasy points to the quarterback position. So Mahomes managers are likely in for a solid Week 1 performance from last year's MVP winner. However, his top target in Travis Kelce could be out with a knee injury. And the story of the Chiefs this offseason has been their revamped wide receiver room which saw departures from JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman. If Kelce is inactive, then that's obviously not good. But Mahomes will find a way to make do. He's an easy must-start QB1 to start the season.
Fantasy Upside
Patrick Mahomes is coming off of an MVP season where he finished with a career-high 5,250 passing yards with 41 passing touchdowns, 358 yards yards and four rushing touchdowns. He’s finished as QB4, QB4 and QB1 in each of the past three seasons. Even more impressive is Mahomes completed his MVP campaign last season following the loss of Pro Bowl WR Tyreek Hill. Mahomes is clearly one of the best quarterbacks in the league right now, and he’s set up to have another successful season in 2023.
Fantasy Downside
While Mahomes showed he was fine without Hill last season, it is still worth noting that this Chiefs offense is yet again undergoing another big change. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman each left in free agency, and the team brought in second-round rookie WR Rashee Rice. Mahomes is also slightly turnover prone with 13 interceptions in 2021 and 12 INTs in 2022.
2023 Bottom Line
While the Chiefs’ new-look WR room is a little interesting, it’s not that concerning. Mahomes averaged over 300 pass yards per game last season and threw for multiple touchdowns in 12 of his 17 games. He’s a good bet to once again lead the league in passing yards, and should be viewed as a top-three option at his position.
Week 17 vs. Denver Broncos
Patrick Mahomes had another solid outing last week, throwing for 224 yards with two touchdowns while adding a third touchdown on the ground. Mahomes now has nine games this season (out of 15) with at least three total touchdowns. And one of those games came against the Broncos, which is Mahomes' opponent for Week 17. Denver also forced Mahomes into three interceptions that game, but it was still a good game for Mahomes who had 352 yards as well. Denver is a tough matchup, but Mahomes is matchup proof and he proved that against Denver earlier in the year. He should be viewed as a must-start QB for Week 17.
Week 16 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Four weeks in a row, Patrick Mahomes has faced teams in the top 10 of fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. In those games he's averaged over 300 pass yards with 2.25 total touchdowns. There's not much that can stop Mahomes, who has now topped 300 passing yards in eight of last nine games, and in five of those games he's finished with three total touchdowns or more. In other words, Mahomes is an easy must-start option at QB as he gets an OK matchup vs. the Seahawks (15th aFPA) in Week 16.
Week 15 at Houston Texans
Patrick Mahomes had an odd stat line last week as he threw for 352 yards with three touchdowns, but he also had three interceptions. Aside from the turnovers, it was overall a nice outing from Mahomes, especially considering the tough matchup against the Broncos. Things don't get much easier for Mahomes this week as he faces a Texans defense that's given up the second-fewest average fantasy points to quarterbacks. Although that's a little misleading considering the Texans have given up the most points to running backs, and are often trailing in games leading to teams passing the ball less against them (they have the fourth-fewest pass attempts given up in the league). In short, Mahomes should be fine in Week 15 and should still be viewed as a must-start option at QB.
