Week 7 vs. New York Giants
Matt Ryan completed 31-of-41 passes for 354 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions in the Falcons’ Week 6 win over the Bucs. Showing no signs of being hampered by the foot injury he suffered in Pittsburgh the week prior, Ryan shredded an overmatched Tampa Bay defense (costing DC Mike Smith his job in the process). It was the fourth time this season that Ryan has thrown for multiple touchdown passes and the fourth consecutive game without an interception. A weekly QB1, Ryan will have another golden matchup on Monday night when the Falcons host the Giants. Ranked as our QB2, start Ryan in all formats.
Week 6 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matt Ryan completed 26-of-38 passes for 285 yards with one touchdown and zero interceptions in the Falcons’ Week 5 loss to the Steelers. He also lost a fumble in the second half that Pittsburgh returned for a touchdown. Ryan was sacked six times and had zero time to find open receivers. He was relegated to checking down to tight end Austin Hooper, which is problematic for an offense that has Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley at its disposal. He did hit Mohamed Sanu for a 40-plus yard touchdown in the second quarter, but that was the only highlight of the day for Ryan and the Falcons. Adding injury to insult, Ryan suffered a foot injury, although he should be fine for Week 6. Expect a bounce-back for Ryan and the Falcons, who return home to face a bad Tampa Bay defense. Ranked as our QB4 for Week 6, Ryan has a great matchup on Sunday.
Week 5 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Matt Ryan completed 29-of-39 passes for 419 yards and three touchdowns in the Falcons’ Week 4 loss to the Bengals. Ryan was once again sensational but he couldn’t outscore his own defense for a second straight week. In fact, he left fantasy points on the table by overthrowing an open Logan Paulsen in the end zone on the Falcons’ last drive, a play that proved costly when Atlanta’s defense allowed Cincinnati to score with under a minute remaining in the game. Ryan now has 793 passing yards and eight touchdowns in his last two games. A positive touchdown regression candidate coming into the season, Ryan is back to being an every-week QB1. Next up for the Falcons is a date with the Steelers on Sunday, and given how Pittsburgh’s defense has looked to this point, Ryan should have another solid fantasy day. He’s our QB4 for Week 5.
Week 4 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Matt Ryan completed 26-of-35 passes for five touchdowns and also added 12 yards on four carries in the Falcons’ Week 3 loss to the Saints. In what lived up to its shootout potential, the two teams combined to score 80 points. Ryan put on a show, throwing three of his five touchdown passes to rookie Calvin Ridley, who finished with 146 yards on seven catches. A positive touchdown regression candidate coming into the season, Ryan now has nine total touchdowns the past two weeks. Moving forward, he and the Atlanta offense will need to out-pace the Falcons defense, which is incredibly banged-up. Ryan and Co. will be playing in plenty of upcoming shootouts and he is ranked as our No. 6 QB for Sunday’s meeting with the Bengals. He’s a viable streaming option in Week 4.
Week 3 vs. New Orleans Saints
Matt Ryan rebounded nicely from his poor performance versus the Eagles in Week 1 by completing 23-of-28 passes for 272 yards with two touchdowns, one interception and two additional scores on the ground in a win over the Panthers. His first rushing score came on a goal-line sneak while the second was a gutsy run when he left the pocket on a broken pass play, sprinted towards the end zone and did a half-helicopter while three defenders smashed into him. With one bad and one good game under his belt, Ryan will be a back-end QB1 when the Falcons host the Saints on Sunday. He’s our No. 10 ranked QB for Week 3.
Week 2 vs. Carolina Panthers
Matt Ryan completed 21-of-42 passes for 251 yards with zero touchdowns and an interception in the Falcons’ Week 1 loss to the Eagles. For a player making top quarterback money, it was a forgettable night for Ryan, who was abysmal in the red zone, both to start the game, and end it as the Eagles hung on for an 18-12 victory. Part of the problem was Steve Sarkisian’s playcalling. If you go back and watch the sequence of events leading up to the Falcons’ failed possession at the end of the game, Sarkisian repeatedly called for four verticals into the end zone. That’s it. No crossing routes, no deception, no creatively. Sarkisian essentially learned nothing in the seven months from when the Falcons’ season ended in Philadelphia a year ago in the exact same manner.
Regardless, Ryan wasn’t good. He lacked arm strength on deep throws and seemed to be more concerned about throwing more interceptions than making a play in the red zone. Ranked as our No. 14 QB, we would avoid Ryan in his matchup with the Panthers on Sunday. If you're looking for streaming replacements, Alex Smith and Tyrod Taylor are better options than Ryan.
Week 1 at Philadelphia Eagles
Matt Ryan finished his preseason throwing for 145 yards and a touchdown on 20 attempts. Both Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman were held out of exhibition play so there’s not much to glean from Ryan’s preseason. That said, he should be an excellent bounce-back candidate after regressing a year ago following his 2016 MVP performance.
Ryan is not recommended for his Week 1 matchup with the Eagles on Thursday night. He completed 61.1 percent of his passes against Philadelphia in the playoffs last year, but he finished with a paltry 5.83 yards per attempt and he was harassed by an excellent Eagles pass rush. Ranked as our No. 17 QB for Week 1, avoid Ryan this week. If you need a signal-caller, Andy Dalton (at Indianapolis), Marcus Mariota (at Miami), Alex Smith (at Arizona) and Blake Bortles (at NY Giants) are all rated higher in our rankings this week.
Fantasy Upside
One year removed from winning league MVP and finishing as fantasy's QB2, Matt Ryan saw a regression in 2017, dropping to QB15. Everyone remembers Ryan's career-season in 2016 but few recall when the Atlanta signal-caller struggled in his first season under Kyle Shanahan, finishing the 2015 season with just 21 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.
Steve Sarkisian took a lot of heat for Atlanta's offensive performance in 2016 but a regression was bound to happen. He attempted to utilize the same offensive concepts that Shanahan used in 2016 but mostly failed. The Falcons did show improvement offensively in the second half of the season, however, and Sarkisian says he's more comfortable in year two. Assuming Julio Jones' contract dispute doesn't carry into the regular season, Ryan will once again have one of the best supporting casts in football. The team even added outstanding route runner Calvin Ridley in the first round of the draft to complement Jones, Muhammad Sanu, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, and tight end Austin Hooper. Ryan and Sark should make a better pairing in 2018 and thus, Ryan should see a bump in production from a year ago.
Fantasy Downside
Ryan and the Falcons suffered a significant regression in 2017, with the biggest problems coming in the red zone. Atlanta dropped from first in points per game at 33.8 to 15th in 2017 at 22.1. Ryan also saw his touchdown rate drop from 7.1 percent to 3.8 percent. While the players are culpable for that regression, Sarkisian was at the root of the team's red zone woes. Despite fans' pleas to get Jones the ball more inside the 20, one could argue Sark relied too heavily on passes to wide receivers. If Sarkisian doesn't improve his playcalling inside the red area, it won't matter how many weapons Ryan has around him, his fantasy production will remain tempered.
2018 Bottom Line
Ryan suffered a regression in 2016 but it's not as if his production completely fell off the map. His completion rate (64.7%) and yards per pass attempt (7.7) were in line with his career numbers. If his touchdown rate jumps back to his career norm of 4.6 percent, then he'll be well worth a selection on draft night. In fact, given his current ADP of 12.05 in 10-team leagues, Ryan is a great value pick heading into fantasy drafts this season. Much like his MVP season in 2016, he's a positive regression candidate for 2018.
Divisional Round at Philadelphia Eagles
Matt Ryan completed 21-of-30 passes for 218 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons’ Wild Card victory over the Rams. Ryan’s lone touchdown pass was a perfectly-timed and positioned pop-up to Julio Jones as his back foot was sliding backward on wet grass. Ryan didn’t post eye-popping numbers but he was extremely efficient despite being under siege by Aaron Donald all night.
The Falcons will head to Philadelphia this Saturday afternoon to take on an Eagles defense that ranks fifth against fantasy quarterbacks. Atlanta is likely to have a similar game plan this week to the one it put together last week: run the ball and use the short passing game as an extension of the run. Tom Brady, Case Keenum, and Ben Roethlisberger are better options in DFS than Ryan, who is our No. 4 ranked QB for the Divisional Round. That said, while his ceiling might not be very high, Ryan’s floor isn’t low.
Wild Card Round at Los Angeles Rams
Matt Ryan completed 28-of-45 passes for 317 yards and 1 touchdown while also adding 3 rushes for 14 yards in the Falcons' Week 17 win over the Panthers. The victory propelled Atlanta into the playoffs, where the team will face the Rams in the Wild Card round. After finishing as fantasy's No. 2-rated quarterback in 2016, Ryan dropped all the way to fantasy's QB15 in 2017. It didn't help that his receivers dropped 4.7% of their targets this season, which ranked 28th in the league.
Ryan ranks as our No. 6 QB in the Wild Card round. Much like during the regular season, he's not an awful play but he offers limited upside. Cam Newton, Drew Brees, Jared Goff, Alex Smith and even Blake Bortes are better fantasy starts this weekend.
