Fantasy Upside
A year ago Ryan dealt with Julio Jones missing 11 games due to a foot injury, Roddy White being hobbled by a high-ankle sprain suffered in preseason, and an offensive line that treated him like a punch bag for opposing defenses for 16 games. And yet, the veteran quarterback still managed to throw for 4,515 yards, 26 touchdowns and finish with a 67.4 completion percentage. If you want to talk about Ryan’s upside, it first starts with the return of Jones, who is a true difference maker that can take the top off a defense at a moment’s notice. If Jones stays healthy for 16 games, there’s no reason why Ryan couldn’t post similar numbers to his 2012 campaign when he threw for a career-high 4,719 yards and 32 touchdowns. White’s impact cannot be overstated either, as he’s been one of Ryan’s security blankets on third downs since the QB entered the league in 2008. Other reasons for optimism when it comes to Ryan’s 2014 fantasy projection: the additions of Jon Asamoah and Jake Matthews to the offensive line, OC Dirk Koetter’s pass-happy philosophy, and a spotty defense that will force the offense to generate points in order to win games. Ryan remains a solid QB1.
Fantasy Downside
The biggest downside to Ryan is the fact that he lost Tony Gonzalez. At 6-foot-8, second-year tight end Levine Toilolo is a nice red zone option but he doesn’t come anywhere close to bringing what Gonzo brought to the Falcons’ passing game in terms of talent and experience. With Gonzalez gone, the Falcons are expected to shift to more three-receiver looks with Harry Douglas joining Jones and White in the starting lineup. But other than Gonzalez’s absence, there’s not much downside to Ryan’s game considering he threw for over 4,500 yards and racked up 26 touchdowns last year with Jones and White battling injuries, as well as playing behind a horrendous offensive line. He’ll never post Peyton Manning numbers but it’s highly unlikely he puts together a dud season.
Bottom Line
Ryan ranks 12th in our preseason projections and his ADP in 10-team standard leagues is 9.05, while his ADP in 12-team leagues is currently 8.01. This is appropriate value for Ryan, who is a solid, low-end QB1 in both standard and PPR formats. As previously mentioned, he’ll never post numbers that rival Manning, Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, but he’s not going to kill your season either. He’s only missed two games through his entire career so he’s durable and if Jones and White stay healthy, Ryan could come close to matching his career year of 2012.
