Week 6 at Seattle
Matt Ryan completed 15-of-28 attempts for 267 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons’ Week 5 win over the Broncos. Ryan repeatedly took advantage of Tevin Coleman lining up in the slot against slow-footed linebackers who couldn’t keep pace with the speedy running back. It wasn’t a perfect day for Ryan, as he missed Julio Jones for what would have been a couple of long passing plays, but Denver’s defense has certainly made opposing quarterbacks look worse.
Unfortunately for owners that were hoping to stick Ryan back in their lineup this week, the Falcons travel to Seattle this Sunday to take on the Seahawks. Seattle owns the No. 8 fantasy defense versus quarterbacks this season, so it’ll be difficult for Ryan to move the ball through the air. If Dak Prescott, Marcus Mariota, Tyrod Taylor or even Brian Hoyer are available, consider one of those streaming options for this weekend, as they all rank higher than Ryan (our QB19 for Week 6).
Week 5 at Denver
Matt Ryan was sensational in the Falcons' Week 4 win over the Panthers, completing 28-of-37 passes for 503 yards, with four touchdowns and just one interception. He now leads the league in passing with 1,473 yards, is tied for the league-lead in touchdowns with Ben Roethlisberger at 11, has the highest QB rating in the NFL at 126.3, and is completing just over 72-percent of his passes. If he's not an early-season MVP candidate, who is?
That said, Ryan owners face a dilemma this week because the Falcons travel to Denver to take on the Broncos, who own fantasy's No. 2-ranked defense versus quarterbacks. Ryan ranks as our QB21 and owners need to look for alternatives. Some names to consider: Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, Brian Hoyer and Trevor Siemian (assuming he practices in full on Friday. The Falcons also visit the Seahawks in Week 6, so Ryan could be a poor option for the next two weeks.
Week 4 vs. Carolina
Matt Ryan completed 20-of-30 passes for 240 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in the Falcons’ 45-32 thrashing of the Saints on Monday Night Football. For the second straight week, Ryan executed Kyle Shanahan’s no-huddle attack to near-perfection, leading the Falcons to scores on six consecutive drives after a three-and-out to start the game.
Through three weeks, Ryan has thrown for 970 yards with seven touchdowns to just one interception while leading Atlanta to a 2-1 record. He draws a tough matchup on Sunday, however, as the Falcons will host their NFC South rivals the Panthers at the Georgia Dome. Ryan ranks as our QB15 for Week 4 so if Dak Prescott or Kirk Cousins are available on your waiver wire, you might want to consider one of those QBs as a potential streaming option for Sunday. Ryan is also dealing with a thumb injury suffered against the Saints, although he does expect to play this weekend.
Week 3 at New Orleans
Matt Ryan completed 26-of-34 passes for 396 yards with three touchdowns and an interception in the Falcons’ Week 2 win against the Raiders. Through two games Ryan has completed 53-of-73 passes (72.6 percent) for 730 yards with five touchdowns to just one interception, which was a poor pass thrown behind Jacob Tamme in the end zone last Sunday at Oakland. The Falcons are in New Orleans on Monday night taking on a Saints team that owns fantasy’s last-ranked defense versus quarterbacks.
In what should be a shootout between the division rivals, Ryan ranks as our QB5 for Week 3 and makes for an excellent streaming option.
Week 2 at Oakland
Matt Ryan completed 27-of-39 passes for 334 yards and two touchdowns in the Falcons’ Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers. It was a solid season-opener for Ryan, who struggled with turnovers and red zone production in Kyle Shanahan’s system last year. Atlanta’s offense was 1-for-4 inside the red zone so Ryan and Co. are still leaving meat on the bone, but the two touchdowns helped fantasy owners that streamed the Falcon QB last week.
In Week 2, Ryan faces an Oakland defense that improved on paper this offseason but surrendered 423 passing yards and four touchdowns to Drew Brees last week. Ranked as our QB19 for Week 2, Ryan is a decent streaming option for owners that waited to nab Tyrod Taylor (vs. Jets on Thursday) or Jay Cutler (vs. Philadelphia) late in their drafts.
Week 1 vs. Tampa Bay
Matt Ryan threw for 4,591 yards and completed 66.3 percent of his passes while operating Kyle Shanahan's offense in 2015. While the yardage and completion numbers were impressive, Ryan finished with just 21 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, 11 of which came at home. Ryan reportedly worked with trainers Tom House and Adam Dedeaux on his deep ball this offseason, which is encouraging. We'll see if Ryan can cut down on the turnovers while adding more explosive passing plays in the second year of Shanahan's offense. As for Week 1, Ryan ranks as our QB15. He threw for 666 yards, with three touchdowns and two interceptions in two games against Tampa Bay last season. He's a decent streaming option if you took Tom Brady late in your draft and you're looking for a starter for Sunday.
Fantasy Upside
Despite throwing just 21 touchdown passes last season (the second-lowest output since his 16-TD season as a rookie in 2008) to finish as fantasy’s QB19, all of the elements are there for Matt Ryan to have a bounce back campaign. The Falcons still boast one of the top receivers in the NFL in Julio Jones and invested a lot of money in free agent Mohamad Sanu, who at the very least will be an upgrade on Roddy White. Ryan clearly struggled with some of the complexities of Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but should have a better grasp of the system in his second year (especially after organizing a players-only passing camp with 26 of his teammates in Florida back in March). Plus, it wasn’t all bad last season. Ryan still managed to complete 66.3 percent of his passes while throwing for 4,591 yards. He also remains durable, having played 16 games every year outside of 2009 when he missed two games due to turf toe, and Atlanta’s offensive line received a major boost when the team signed center Alex Mack in free agency. The Falcons had a revolving door at the center position last year, so Mack will provide a major upgrade.
Fantasy Downside
Ryan’s numbers last year speak for themselves. He finished with as many turnovers (21) as touchdown passes and was dreadful in the red zone, where the Falcons ranked 18th after finishing sixth in red zone scoring in 2014. The question fantasy owners have to ask themselves if they’re considering Ryan as a value pick in the later rounds is whether or not he’s a fit for Shanahan’s offense. Ryan admitted in January that Shanahan’s system was “too much” for him at times last season, indicating that he wasn’t always comfortable running the offense. We’re talking about an eight-year NFL veteran that graduated from Boston College and who learned two different offenses before Shanahan arrived in 2015. Why did he struggle so much with the system? Maybe the offense was overly complicated for Ryan last season. Maybe Shanahan wasn’t flexible as a play-caller. Or maybe Ryan’s strengths as a signal-caller don’t match what Shanahan asks from his quarterbacks. Either way, way draft Ryan if there’s a possibility he’s not in the most optimal position to succeed?
2016 Bottom Line
With the addition of Sanu and the potential emergence of slot receiver Justin Hardy, Ryan should post more than 21 touchdowns this season. But the yardage number is likely to hover around the same 4,591 that he posted a year ago. Over the past three seasons, Ryan has finished as fantasy’s QB15, QB7 and QB19. It’s reasonable to conclude that he peaked in 2012 and while he’s still a good quarterback, it’s unlikely at 31 that he’s going to post eye-popping numbers playing in Shanahan’s offense. Ryan currently ranks as our QB19 and has an ADP of 12.09 in 10-team leagues (15.01 in 12-team leagues). Keep him in mind as a reliable streaming option for bye weeks, but there will be better options that offer higher upsides for you on draft night.
Week 17 vs. New Orleans
Matt Ryan completed 23-of-30 passes for 306 yards with one touchdown, plus rushed six times for one yard in the Falcons' upset win over the Panthers. While he's had better statistical games this season, this was Ryan's best performance in 2015. He picked up a huge first down on Atlanta's opening offensive possession in the first quarter by faking out linebacker Thomas Davis, then took a big hit near the goal line. Television cameras showed Ryan grimacing in pain throughout the game but he never missed a snap and guided the Falcons to a huge upset. While he did show up on the team's injury report with a hip injury, Ryan was a full participant in practice on Wednesday and Thursday. He has a great matchup versus a Saints defense that ranks dead last against fantasy quarterbacks this season. Ryan is our QB6 for Week 17 and will be a great play in both standard and DFS leagues this weekend.
Week 16 vs. Carolina
Matt Ryan completed 22-of-35 passes for 246 yards with one touchdown and an interception in the Falcons Week 15 win over the Jaguars. The interception came on a tipped pass and subsequently led to the game-tying touchdown for Jacksonville. But Ryan showed plenty of grit in the fourth quarter while converting multiple third-downs with passes to receivers Justin Hardy and Roddy White. Atlanta eventually kicked a field goal to take a six-point lead and held on for its first victory over a month. Despite his performance, Ryan remains off the fantasy radar. He ranks as our QB7 for Week 16 and although Drew Brees and Eli Manning lit the Panthers up in two of the past three weeks, Carolina also shut out Atlanta in Week 14. Avoid Ryan for Sunday's matchup.
Week 15 at Jacksonville
Matt Ryan completed 22-of-34 passes for 224 yards and an interception in the Falcons 38-0 loss to the Panthers in Week 14. Ryan's downward spiral continues, as he was benched midway through the fourth quarter. He doesn't look comfortable running Kyle Shanahan's offense and despite having Julio Jones as his top receiver, the reality is Ryan needs another target. With defenses keying on Jones and taking away Devonta Freeman in the running game, the Falcons have crumbled. If Ryan had another weapon, perhaps defenses wouldn't be having so much success slowing down Atlanta's offense. But that's also an excuse. The bottom line is that Ryan is having one of his worst seasons as a pro and fantasy owners should stay far away from him in all formats. He ranks as our QB16 for Week 15 at Jacksonville.
