Week 7 at New England Patriots
Matt Ryan completed 24-of-35 passes for 248 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception in the Falcons’ 20-17 loss to the Dolphins. Ryan’s interception was a back-breaking turnover deep in Miami territory with Atlanta attempting to at least tie the game after blowing a 17-0 halftime lead. Ryan has struggled with turnovers all season and the Falcons offensive line has struggled against stout fronts like Buffalo, Miami, and even Chicago. If Ryan cuts down on the turnovers, the Falcons aren’t too far off from being explosive again offensively. They’re first in yards per drive, third in points per drive, and first in time of possession per drive. But Ryan has thrown 6 interceptions in 170 pass attempts after throwing 7 picks in 534 attempts last year.
Nevertheless, Ryan is our No. 4 ranked QB for Week 7. He has a great matchup versus the Patriots, who rank 31st against fantasy quarterbacks. Consider him a QB1 despite his recent struggles.
Week 6 vs. Miami Dolphins
Matt Ryan completed 24-of-42 passes for 242 yards, a touchdown, and 2 interceptions in a Week 4 loss to the Bills. He also lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown on what was a questionable call. Ryan has now turned the ball over 6 times in his last two games. He nearly led the Falcons to victory against the Bills, despite not having Julio Jones or Mohamed Sanu, but Atlanta’s offense was stopped on a 4th-and-1 deep in Buffalo territory.
As previously mentioned, Ryan has struggled with turnovers this season but remains a weekly QB1. While Sanu is expected to miss another week or two, Ryan should have Jones back this weekend. Ranked as our QB7 for Week 6, view Ryan as a QB1 against the Dolphins.
Week 4 vs. Buffalo Bills
Matt Ryan completed 24-of-35 passes for 294 yards with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in the Falcons' Week 3 victory over the Lions. The three interceptions were ugly, although two of those picks came off the hands of Ryan's receivers. (The other was an egregious pick-six by Glover Quin right before halftime.) It was Ryan's first interception in his last 309 pass attempts and his first three-pick game since November of 215.
Despite leading Atlanta to a 3-0 record to start the season, Ryan is averaging just 18.75 points per game. He also has a difficult matchup on Sunday when the Falcons host a Bills team that ranks as fantasy's No. 5 defense against quarterbacks. Still, Ryan is our QB4 for Week 4 and needs to be in your lineup. A big game is coming sooner or later.
Week 3 at Detroit Lions
Matt Ryan completed 19-of-28 pass attempts for 252 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons' Week 2 win over the Packers. Ryan was more efficient than explosive, but he carved up Green Bay's secondary in the first half. When the Falcons needed a clock-milking drive midway through the fourth quarter, Ryan delivered with a key third-down pass to Mohamed Sanu. Through two weeks, Ryan is averaging just under 19 fantasy points. That number should climb in the upcoming weeks.
The Falcons travel to Detroit to take on the Lions in an intriguing NFC matchup this Sunday. The Lions rank as fantasy's No. 31 defense against quarterbacks, so this is a great matchup for Ryan. Ranked as our QB3, view Ryan as a QB1 for Sunday.
Week 2 vs. Green Bay Packers
Matt Ryan completed 21-of-30 passes for 321 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons' Week 1 win over the Bears. Of those 321 yards, 88 of them came on an Austin Hooper touchdown in which the tight end stiffed-armed a defender and out-raced the defense the rest of the way. The Falcons offense lacked the explosion that made the team dominant during their Super Bowl run a year ago. Then again, it was only one week. With new playcaller Steve Sarkisian taking over for Kyle Shanahan, it could be a few weeks before Atlanta is firing on all cylinders.
The Packers looked improved defensively in their victory over the Seahawks last week, but Ryan remains a must-start on Sunday night when the Falcons open their new stadium. He ranks as our QB4 for Week 2 and will face a Green Bay defense ranked No. 17 against fantasy quarterbacks.
Week 1 at Chicago Bears
Matt Ryan is coming off the first MVP campaign of his career. He threw for 4,944 yards with a career-high 38 touchdowns and a career-low 7 interceptions, while leading the Falcons to the Super Bowl. Ryan will again be surrounded by an outstanding supporting cast, from all-world receiver Julio Jones, to a two-headed monster at running back in Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, to an up-and-coming tight end in Austin Hooper.
Ryan gets a nice matchup in Week 1, as the Falcons will travel to Chicago to take on the rebuilding Bears. Chicago ranks as fantasy's No. 15 defense against quarterbacks, so fire up Ryan as a QB1 on Sunday. He ranks as our No. 3 quarterback for this week and should start the season off with a bang.
Fantasy Upside
Matt Ryan won the first regular season MVP award of his career, nearly led the Falcons to a Super Bowl victory, and finished as fantasy's No. 9 overall player in 2017. After posting career-highs in passing yards (4,944), touchdowns (38) and QB Rating (117), Ryan will once again be at the helm of a dangerous Atlanta offense. Skill position players Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman and promising tight end Austin Hooper all return, as do four starting offensive linemen. Despite a switch in offensive coordinators (Steve Sarkisian takes over for Kyle Shanahan, who was hired to be the head coach in San Francisco), Ryan is poised for another excellent season.
Fantasy Downside
Before 2017, Ryan had never finished above QB7 in fantasy (he finished as QB2 last year). It's noteworthy that Ryan struggled when Shanahan was hired in 2015. It could take a year to get comfortable with Sarkisian, who has never called plays at the NFL level. Jones also underwent surgery on his left foot in March, which is the third known procedure on that foot. If Jones misses any amount of time, Ryan and the Falcons offense will look vastly different.
2017 Bottom Line
Given the switch in offensive coordinators, it's unlikely Ryan will come close to posting the same touchdown numbers he did a season ago. That doesn't mean he'll have a poor season, but regression is coming. After what he and the Falcons accomplished last season in scoring the most points in the NFL (540), Ryan is sure to be over-drafted this fall. His current ADP of 5.06 in 10-team leagues is extreme. He offers better value in the seventh or eighth round.
Super Bowl vs. New England
Matt Ryan completed 27-of-38 passes for 392 yards and four touchdowns in the Falcons' 44-21 victory over the Packers in the NFC Championship Game two weeks ago. In his two postseason appearances this year, Ryan has completed 53-of-75 pass attempts for 730 yards with seven touchdowns and no interceptions. He has been surgical since the playoffs began and has only built on his MVP-caliber regular season. While we have him listed behind Tom Brady for our Super Bowl rankings, Ryan is projected to throw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns against the Patriots. Brady simply has a better matchup versus Atlanta's defense, which is why he is our QB1 for the Super Bowl and Ryan is our QB2.
NFC Championship vs. Green Bay
Matt Ryan completed 26-of-37 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns in the Falcons' 36-20 victory over the Seahawks in the Divisional round last Saturday. Ryan was surgical from the start, hitting eight different receivers and finding Julio Jones, Tevin Coleman and Mohamed Sanu for his three touchdowns. He'll face a Green Bay secondary that has been under siege since Sam Shields was lost for the season in Week 1 due to a concussion. With safety Morgan Burnett also suffering a quad injury last week in Dallas, the Packers will have a difficult time slowing Ryan and the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL this weekend. Outside of Aaron Rodgers, Ryan is as good of a DFS play as any quarterback playing on Championship Sunday. He threw for 288 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions when these two teams met in Week 8 of the regular season.
Divisional Round vs. Seattle
Matt Ryan ranks as our No. 4 quarterback for the Divisional round, behind Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Dak Prescott. Alex Smith and Prescott are the better values if you're playing DFS this week, but Ryan isn't a bad option. The Seahawks haven't been the same defense without free safety Earl Thomas (broken leg) and Ryan threw for 335 yards with three touchdowns and an interception in Seattle Week 6, so he has had recent success against Pete Carroll's team. Ryan is having a MVP-caliber season, but has struggled in the postseason, throwing nine touchdowns and seven interceptions in five games.
