Fantasy Upside
Most people do not remember how good of a season Matt Ryan had in 2018. This is probably because we tend to have short memories and they are filled with Patrick Mahomes throwing bombs to Tyreek Hill and finishing the season with an astounding 50 passing touchdowns. Ryan quietly finished behind Mahomes as the QB2 and his end of the year statistics were very similar to when he won the MVP in 2016. In his MVP campaign, Ryan had 4,944 yards, 38 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a completion percentage of 69.9%. In 2018, Ryan finished with 4,924 yards, 35 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a completion percentage of 69.4%. You might want to read those numbers again because they are almost identical.
Ryan will not have to compete against Mother Nature very often because the Falcons play 13 out of 16 games indoors and they start the season with nine straight indoor games. According to our Strength of Schedule metric, Ryan also benefits from only having to play against three top ten defenses, Minnesota, Arizona, and Jacksonville. However, Arizona might not be a top ten defense when they face off against the Falcons because they will be without their top cornerback, Patrick Peterson, who was suspended for the first six games of the season.
Another positive note is Ryan will be reuniting with old offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. Prior to joining the Tampa Bay coaching staff, Koetter was the coordinator with Matt Ryan for three straight seasons, 2012-2014. The Falcons also addressed their offensive line issues by using both first-round draft picks to select offensive linemen, Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary. Starting running back, Devonta Freeman is back after suffering multiple injuries last year and Ryan’s receiving group, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu, and Austin Hooper, is the exact same.
Fantasy Downside
It is safe to expect some negative regression in total passing attempts under new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. Under former offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, Atlanta passed the ball in 2018 at the third-highest rate, 65%, in the entire league, second to only Green Bay and Pittsburgh, both at 67%. Some of this can be credited to Sarkisian’s style, especially in the red zone, but the offense frequently found themselves in shootouts because their defense was littered with injuries and gave up a lot of points. CB Ricardo Allen missed 13 games, safety Keanu Neal missed 15 games, and LB Deion Jones missed 10 games. Expect the defense to be healthier this season. This will take pressure off the offense and could result in some less passing opportunities for Ryan.
2019 Bottom Line
Ryan has the potential to finish consecutive seasons as a top-five fantasy quarterback. The team added talent to the offensive line via the NFL draft and Ryan’s receiving group, Jones, Ridley, Sanu, and Hooper is the exact same as last year. He will also face the thirteenth easiest quarterback schedule, according to 4for4's schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed.
Week 17 at Tampa Bay Bucs
Matt Ryan completed 15-of-26 passes for 239 yards and three touchdowns in the Falcons’ Week 16 win over the Panthers. Ryan lost a fumble with Atlanta deep in Carolina territory in the first half but was otherwise flawless while picking apart a horrible Panthers secondary. He found Julio Jones in the back of the end zone for his first score, then hit Calvin Ridley for a 75-yard touchdown right after halftime. His third score came from 44 yards out when he found a wide-open Mohamed Sanu on a busted coverage. Even the Falcons are out of playoff contention, they’ve won their last two games and could finish 2018 on a high note when they visit the Bucs on Sunday. Ranked as QB5 for Week 17, Ryan should put together another solid performance against a Tampa Bay defense that has struggled for most of the season.
Week 16 at Carolina Panthers
Matt Ryan completed 22-of-36 for 231 yards and two touchdowns, adding three rushes for 18 yards and an additional score in the Falcons’ Week 15 win over the Cardinals. It could have been a bigger day for Ryan, at least from a completion and yardage standpoint, but his receivers dropped a handful of passes in the second half. Despite Atlanta’s down season in 2018, Ryan has proven to be a fantasy value most weeks. He gets a great matchup on Sunday in Charlotte when the Falcons visit a Panthers team that ranks 22nd against fantasy quarterbacks this season. Ranked as our QB7 for Week 16, Ryan is a good start for Sunday.
Week 15 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Matt Ryan completed 28-of-42 passes for 262 yards with three touchdowns and an interception in the Falcons’ Week 14 loss to the Packers. Ryan’s fantasy line was good because of the three touchdowns, but he was not. He threw a pick-six in the first half and neither he nor the Falcons recovered. Atlanta’s offensive line has struggled mightily over the past month and with no running game, Ryan is under constant pressure. That said, he has also missed open receivers, especially on deep throws. Over their past five games, the Falcons have scored 20 points or fewer in all five contests. A bounce-back this Sunday isn’t guaranteed, as Atlanta will host an Arizona defense that ranks No. 7 against fantasy quarterback’s this season. Ranked as our QB13 for Week 15, Ryan is nothing more than a low-end starter. If Dak Prescott or Kirk Cousins are still available, those are two QBs ranked higher than Ryan this week.
Week 14 at Green Bay Packers
Matt Ryan completed 16-of-26 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons’ 26-16 loss to the Ravens. The game was a total disaster for Atlanta’s offense, which was kept off the field for most of the second half and was held in check for most of the game. Ryan and the passing game continues to be handcuffed by horrendous offensive line play. With no running game to help take some pressure off the passing game, Ryan has turned into a bullseye in the Falcons’ current four-game losing streak. Ranked as our QB12 for Week 14, Ryan is a low-end QB1 but we wouldn’t recommend him against the Packers. In the last four weeks, Atlanta has been held to 16, 17, 19 and 16 points. This offense is a mess. If you’re looking for a better quarterback option, see if Jameis Winston or Mitch Trubisky is still on your waiver wire.
Week 13 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Matt Ryan completed 35-of-47 passes for 377 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the Falcons’ Week 12 loss to the Saints. Ryan also lost a fumble in the first quarter when Atlanta was knocking on the door of a score. He was abused all night by his own offensive line, which has fallen apart due to injuries at the guard position and ineffective play from right tackle Ryan Schrader. As the announcers pointed out throughout the night, Ryan was locking on receivers like a rookie but in some respects, he needed to make pre-snap decisions because he had zero time to throw. He took a beating but kept competing. The Falcons are reshuffling their offensive line this week, but Ryan is likely to take another beating on Sunday when Atlanta hosts Baltimore. The Ravens are the No. 4 defense against fantasy quarterbacks this season and Ryan is our QB15 for Week 13. We would avoid him if you have better options, including Baltimore’s very own Lamar Jackson.
Week 12 at New Orleans Saints
Matt Ryan completed 24-of-34 passes for 291 yards and one touchdown with one interception. The pick was the fault of rookie receiver Calvin Ridley, who had the ball skip off his hands and into the waiting arms of Dallas linebacker Leighton Vander Esch. The 291 yards broke a four-game streak in which Ryan threw for over 300 yards. Atlanta’s offensive line isn’t what it was two years ago, which has led to Ryan being harassed weekly. That said, the Falcons have no running game or defense, making Ryan a weekly QB1. He threw for 374 yards and five touchdowns versus the Saints in Week 3 and will face New Orleans defense again on Thanksgiving night. Ranked as our QB4 for Week 12, Ryan is a solid start this Thursday.
Week 11 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Matt Ryan completed 38-of-52 passes for 330 yards and two touchdowns in the Falcons’ 28-16 loss to the Browns in Week 10. Ryan could have had an even bigger day but the Falcons had issues inside the red zone, which hasn’t been a problem area since Week 1. On the season, Ryan is the No. 2 quarterback in fantasy and ranks 21st overall. Ranked as our QB6 for Week 11, keep Ryan in your starting lineup for when the Falcons host the Cowboys. Dallas can get after the quarterback but not many teams have slowed down Atlanta on its home turf.
Week 10 at Cleveland Browns
Matt Ryan completed 26-of-38 passes for 350 yards and four touchdowns in the Falcons’ Week 9 win against the Redskins. Through nine weeks, Ryan is now QB2 for the season. If Atlanta weren’t 4-4 because of an injury-ravaged defense, Ryan would likely be in the MVP discussion. For fantasy purposes, he’ll be a QB1 again on Sunday when the Falcons travel to Cleveland to play a Browns defense that ranks No. 2 against fantasy quarterbacks this season but has also surrendered 38, 26, 33 and 37 points over its last four games.
Week 9 at Washington Redskins
Matt Ryan completed 31-of-39 passes for 379 yards and one touchdown in the Falcons’ Week 7 win over the Giants. Ryan was harassed into three first-half sacks but he was still outstanding throughout the game. Everyone remembers the dud he posted in Philly Week 1 of the season but Ryan has otherwise put together an excellent season and is on pace to throw for over 5,000 yards. The Falcons travel to D.C. on Sunday to take on an underrated Redskins defense that ranks 14th against fantasy quarterbacks this season. Ranked as our QB11 for Week 9, view Ryan as a low-end QB1.
