Week 3 vs Bears
Matt Ryan did everything he could to win in Week 2, throwing four touchdown passes. Too bad his defense and special teams didn't save him. Now Atlanta is 0-2 and almost facing a must-win in Week 3 against the Bears. He also might not have Julio Jones at full strength, as he is dealing with a strained hamstring that he aggravated against the Cowboys. Fortunately, Ryan has gotten big games already from Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage through two weeks and the Bears are in the middle of the pack early on in terms of passing yards allowed, having faced Matthew Stafford and Daniel Jones. Ryan checks in at No. 9 in our Week 3 QB ranks.
Week 2 vs Cowboys
Fantasy owners were certainly happy with Matt Ryan's Week 1 performance, as he threw for 450 yards and two touchdowns against the Seahawks, though Atlanta was forced to throw more after trailing for much of the game, being down as much as 31-12 in the fourth quarter.
Sunday, he faces a Cowboys defense that is now without LB Leighton Vander Esch for an extended period of time and allowed 275 passing yards from Jared Goff. Ryan should carry the momentum he built in Week 1 into Week 2 and we have him as a top-8 option for this week.
Matt Ryan begins his 13th NFL season against a team that has given him fits over the past few seasons. Ryan missed last season's meeting but in two of the three meetings prior to 2019, Ryan threw for less than 200 yards but did toss two touchdown passes in Week 11 of the 2017 season. And now he's up against a Seahawks defense that added safety Jamal Adams as they try to build Legion of Boom 2.0. All that said, this is still a strong offense on paper and Ryan should be viewed as a low-end QB1 for Week 1. Keep in mind, Matt Schaub rang up 460 yards and a touchdown on Seattle last season.
Fantasy Upside
Matt Ryan has seemed to consistently fly under the radar over the years in fantasy circles, even with a pair of top-two fantasy quarterback finishes over the past four seasons. Then we add in this fantasy nugget from John Paulsen: "Over the last eight years, Ryan has finished seventh or better in even years and 11th or worse in odd years." And as it is, this is an odd-numbered year and Ryan has arguably the best wide-receiver duo to throw to with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley (though Buccaneers fans might argue differently). Even at 35 years old, Ryan can still sling the football. Ryan also now has Hayden Hurst at tight end and Todd Gurley in the backfield. Atlanta also has its offensive line intact from 2019, which will be very important in this strange, unprecedented season.
Fantasy Downside
As with all quarterbacks 35 years or older, there's always the concern for the start of a decline in play. Some argue Ryan did decline in 2019. He missed Week 8 of last season with an ankle sprain but still came back to finish 11th in total fantasy scoring among quarterbacks.
2020 Bottom Line
2020 is certainly a key season for everyone with the Atlanta Falcons, particularly the coaching staff and head coach Dan Quinn. There is definitely a lot of pressure on this team to bounce back from a 7-9 finish and to continue the momentum they created in the second half of the season, where they won six out of eight. That starts with Ryan. And if John's notes hold true, Ryan should have another fine even-numbered season and be a quality fallback option after the pairing of Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.
Week 17 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In Week 16, Ryan was 32/45 for 384 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and finished as the QB14.
The Falcons are out of the playoff picture but they were essentially out of the picture after a 1-7 start to their season. Monitor Week 17 news closely, but the Falcons are planning on playing their starters at the time of writing this blurb. It is unknown how long the starters will play but the starters could play the majority of the game if it stays competitive. This matchup has one of the highest over/unders (48) of the week. Tampa Bay is a mediocre defense against quarterbacks and ranked sixteenth best, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Ryan ranked as a mid QB1.
Week 16 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
In Week 15, Ryan was 25/39 for 210 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions, had five rushing attempts for 27 yards and finished as the QB9.
The Falcons are implied for 27 points, which, at the time of writing this breakdown, is the second-highest team total of the week. Jacksonville is a mediocre defense against quarterbacks and ranked nineteenth best, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Ryan ranked as a low-end QB1. Since his seven-point performance in Week 12 against Tampa Bay, Ryan has scored at least 16 points in his last three games. He is in play for championship teams who do not have the luxury of starting Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, or Deshaun Watson.
Week 15 at San Francisco 49ers
In Week 14, Ryan was 20/34 for 313 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions and finished as the QB10.
The Falcons are only implied for 18 points on the road against a stingy San Francisco defense. The 49ers are the fourth-best against quarterbacks, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Ryan ranked as a low-end QB2. Ryan’s matchup is less than ideal and better streaming options should be available for semifinal matchups.
Week 14 vs. Carolina Panthers
Ryan is a three-point home favorite against the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are ninth-best against quarterbacks, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. The over/under is 47 points, which is tied for the third-highest total this week. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Ryan ranked as fringe QB1. Ryan has been hit or miss but could benefit from the return of Julio Jones and Austin Hooper.
Week 13 vs. New Orleans Saints
In Week 12, Ryan was 23/46 for 271 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception and finished as the QB23. He was a consensus top-five quarterback heading into a perfect matchup at home against Tampa Bay but was a huge disappointment.
Ryan is a seven-point underdog at home on Thanksgiving night against the Saints. The Saints’ defense is fourteenth best against quarterbacks, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. The over/under opened at 50 points but has been bet down to 48.5. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Ryan ranked as fringe QB1. Ryan burned fantasy owners last week but he could bounce back with a low-end QB1 performance this week.
Week 12 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
On the road against the Carolina Panthers, Ryan was 21/31 for 311 yards, one touchdown, and finished as the QB14.
Ryan has a great home matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are one of the biggest pass funnels in the entire league. Their defense is dead last against quarterbacks but the best against running backs, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. The over/under opened at 53 points but has been bet down to 51. The total has come down two points but it is still this week’s highest mark. 4for4 rankings expert John Paulsen has Ryan ranked as the QB2. Ryan is a safe start across all league formats.
