Week 8 vs CHI
In Week 7 Edelman put up another decent PPR outing with his 4-44 line on nine targets. The emergence of Brandon LaFell as a reliable WR2, and the increasing health of Rob Gronkowski have caused Edelman's WR1 fantasy glory days to fade somewhat. Nonetheless, we rank him as a low-end WR2 even in standard leagues. Start him as you normally would, especially in PPR.
Week 7 vs New York Jets
After back to back down weeks, Edelman bounced back nicely in Week 6 with a strong 9-91 line. He also added a rushing attempt for 10 yards, and has 5-45 on the ground this year. Edelman's consistency and value may take a small hit with a healthy Gronk back in the fold, but he'll remain Brady's #1 WR target. We rank Edelman as WR17 and WR11 in PPR.
Week 6 at Buffalo
After a weak showing in Week 4 (4-23 on eight targets), Edelman offered up only a 5-35 line in Week 5 on eight targets. His two week combined yardage is less than his lowest yardage total in any of the first three weeks. While we're not sure he returns to his top 10 WR status from the first three weeks, we are expecting better days ahead for Edelman.
This week we rank him as WR22 and WR17 in PPR. Our ROS ranks currently have him at WR24.
Week 5 at Cincinnati
Even the steadiest fantasy performer on the Patriots' offense suffered in Week 4, having only a 4-23 line on eight targets. He played fine, really, but his numbers suffered as the entire offense had a rough outing. While we don't expect Edeman to stay down for long, we do note that this bad outing came against one of the best aFPA matchups for WRs. Meanwhile, Edelman's Week 5 comes against one of the worst aFPA matchups for WRs. As such we're ranking him as a bit of a bounce-back candidate, though not as the same top 10 option he had been ranked at in previous weeks. He is our WR23 on the week and always a solid PPR play.
Week 4 at Kansas City
The fantasy winner on the Patriots team through three weeks is none other than Julian Edelman. Those of you who called that one in the preseason, pat yourself on the back. Simply put, Edelman has just been great so far. In Week 3, he caught 10 of his 13 targets for 84 yards. He also rushed the ball for the third consecutive week, offering an additional 1-5 line on the ground. On the season, Edelman has a 22-260-1 line in the passing game, accounting for over 40% of Brady's yards. He's in the top 10 in the league in all of yards, receptions, and PPR fantasy points. He's 11th in standard leagues, and 13th in targets.
In Week 4, Edelman faces one of the most generous fantasy matchups possible for WRs, via aFPA. KC ranks 3rd most generous in standard leagues, and 4th most generous in PPR leagues. We rank him WR7 and WR6 in PPR. He's a must start in any format until further notice.
Week 3 vs Oakland
Last week Edelman picked up right where he left off after a strong week one showing, totaling a 6-81-1 line.
Through two weeks, Edelman is leading the Patriots' skill players in receptions, yards and (non-Brady) snaps. He has two less targets than Tom Brady's binky, Rob Gronkowski. Both players each have one receiving touchdown. (Oddly, no Patriot player has scored two touchdowns yet. Four players have one.)
If you own Edelman, pat yourself on the back and continue to roll with him every week, especially until Gronkowski returns to a full compliment of snaps. We rank Edleman as WR14, and WR7 in PPR! Start with full confidence.
Week 2 at Minnesota
Edelman appears to have the Patriots #1 WR role on total lockdown, playing 83 of a possible 86 offensive snaps. Only one other WR even topped 60. Not surprisingly then, Edelman led the team in receiving, catching 6 balls for 95 yards. Surprisingly, he also picked up two carries and gained an extra 21 yards on the ground. Edelman owners are feeling great leading into Week 2. Edelman looks to be an every week start in both PPR and standard formats.
We rank him as WR24 and WR19 in PPR.
Week 1 vs Miami
Edelman's preseason usage was promising for his outlook in 2014. However, Gronk playing in week one does hurt his value somewhat. If you drafted Edelman, you're likely starting him this week. Our ranks of WR23 in PPR and WR24 in standard for Edelman confirm his value in your lineup this week. He should see a lot of targets.
Fantasy Upside
Welker finished his last six years with the Patriots catching over 100 balls five times. Julian Edelman filled in that role last year, catching 105 balls. His upside this year primarily involves Edelmen reprising the same role and level of usage he saw last year, when he finished as a top 20 WR in both standard and PPR formats.
Fantasy Downside
If the Patriots pass catching corp is healthier this year than last, especially if the younger WRs continue to develop, Edelman may not be as needed as he was last year. His giant reception total came in part as the team attempted to compensate for game days without some of Amendola, Gronkowski, Vereen, and Dobson. While Ede'man has shown he's a reliable option when given the chance, it's within reason that Belichick will limit Edelman's opportunities this year - relative to last year.
Bottom Line
Edelman sees a significant bump in PPR formats, where we bump him to WR19 from WR32. Edelman's value on draft day just depends on where you can land him. Our own 4for4 ADP has him going in the mid 6th, which is a full 1-2 rounds after many players we project similarly. I like that draft day price a lot. I would be nervous about reaching for Edelman, though, as he does come with some risk in my mind of seeing less targets and usage than last year.
