Week 16 vs Buffalo Bills
Julian Edelman's long string of consecutive double-digit-target games was finally broken last week, as Edelman played through a knee injury that clearly limited him. He was targeted just five times in a game in which the Patriots ran the ball on 51% of their offensive snaps, their second-highest total of the season. Edelman finished as the WR90, a nightmare scenario for fantasy owners in the playoffs after he finished each of the previous six games among the top-24 fantasy wide receivers.
Edelman has continued to appear hampered by his injury in practices this week and will face off against a Bills defense allowing the 16th-lowest aFPA to wide receivers. Normally, this would be a matchup that Edelman could overcome, given that star Bills cornerback Tre'Davious White rarely covers the slot, though Edelman was held to 30 yards on four receptions in their Week 4 matchup on seven targets. If you've got a lesser-owned or rookie late-season star on your roster like Courtland Sutton, Terry McLaurin, or James Washington, I wouldn't fault you for starting them over Edelman to avoid the potential for getting burned by him playing at far less than 100%.
Week 15 at Cincinnati Bengals
Julian Edelman has become a machine from Week 6 onward, earning double-digit targets in each of the last eight consecutive games, and finishing is a top-20 fantasy wide receiver each week. He's done so despite facing three different defenses in that span ranked among the top ten in aFPA to wide receivers.
Edelman faces a Bengals defense that ranks 21st in aFPA to wide receivers. Over the last five games, here are the weekly fantasy points they've allowed to the opposing team's highest-scoring wide receiver in 0.5 PPR scoring formats:
Week 10 - 16.0
Week 11 - 10.2
Week 12 - 17.3
Week 13 - 13.6
Week 14 - 9.6
Only one of the above wide receivers was targeted more than five times. If Edelman is on your fantasy team, you're starting him confidently as a WR1.
Week 14 vs Kansas City Chiefs
The Patriots' Week 13 game against the Texans was Julian Edelman's seventh straight game with ten or more targets. He remains the second-most targeted wide receiver behind Michael Thomas, and his WR9 finish last week bumped him up to the WR8 for the season. Edelman is Brady's most reliable target, and despite a nagging shoulder injury, that should translate into massive fantasy value in these next few playoff weeks. Edelman also leads all NFL wide receivers with 18 red-zone targets, and his touchdown total of five is the only thing that's keeping out of the top five fantasy scorers at the position.
Edelman's target volume makes him virtually matchup proof, which is valuable this week against a Chiefs defense that ranks fourth in aFPA to wide receivers. The defensive back duo of Tyrann Mathieu and Kendall Fuller cover the slot for Kansas City, but neither is skilled enough to win the majority of their snaps against Edelman. If Kansas City finds offensive success against the Patriots defense, the Patriots will have to lean on the passing game more heavily, and Edelman will continue to earn regular red-zone targets. Start him confidently as a WR1.
Week 13 at Houston Texans
Following a 12-target game in Week 12 that led to a WR18 finish, Julian Edelman has double-digit targets in six straight games and now ranks as the number ten fantasy wide receiver overall. Michael Thomas is the only wide receiver to garner more total targets than Edelman after 11 games played. Whether or not Edelman fits the expected mold for a WR1, he is one, and he's been one without a heavy reliance on touchdowns.
Edelman will see primary coverage from Vernon Hargreaves when he lines up in the slot, and it's a sizeable mismatch in Edelman's favor. Hargreaves has allowed 1.54 yards per snap in coverage, which is tied for the sixth-highest number among all starting cornerbacks. The Texans are allowing the sixth-highest aFPA to wide receivers, and only five teams have allowed more than Houston's 14 touchdowns to receivers. Edelman should continue to fulfill his role as a number one wide receiver for your fantasy team.
Week 12 vs Dallas Cowboys
As the New England offense went in Week 11, so did Julian Edelman's fantasy production, as he was held without a touchdown and just 53 total yards. A WR15 weekly finish dropped his season-long ranking to the WR13. Edelman was targeted ten times, making it five straight games in which he's drawn double-digit target, and his 100 targets through Week 11 is the fourth-most in the league.
Edelman is virtually guaranteed to continue his streak of 10-plus target games in Week 12 with Sanu expected to be inactive. Edelman is Brady's most experienced and familiar receiving option by far, though he should also draw extra defensive attention from a Cowboys defense allowing the seventh-lowest aFPA to wide receivers. Edelman's target volume coupled with his league-leading 18 red-zone targets makes him a WR1 start against the Cowboys.
Week 11 at Philadephia Eagles
It appears as though a Week 10 bye was just what Julian Edelman needed, as he was removed from the Patriots' injury report on Wednesday. Edelman was heavily targeted in Week 9 against the Ravens and turned 11 targets into ten receptions for 89 yards and a finish as the WR23 for the week. Edelman was surprisingly out-targeted and out-produced by the recently acquired Mohamed Sanu, but Edelman still managed a 100% snap share. Edelman was also targeted five times in the red zone, increasing his total to a league-leading 17 targets inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Following a Week 10 bye, Edelman ranks as the WR10 overall.
In his previous game, Edelman faced one of the top secondaries in the NFL in Baltimore, and he faces an Eagles secondary in Week 11 that should be far more forgiving. Philadelphia has allowed the 7th-most aFPA to wide receivers, while also possessing one of the most effective defensive lines with regards to rushing the passer. The Patriots should rely heavily on quickly-developing routes from its wide receivers to mitigate Philadelphia's pass rush, and that's exactly where Edelman tends to feast. Edelman has received double-digit targets in each of his last three games, and there's no reason to expect that streak to be broken against the Eagles. Alongside his massive red zone target volume, Edelman projects as a solid WR1.
Week 9 at Baltimore Ravens
Julian Edelman is New England's clear-cut number one wide receiver, and his 96% snap share in Week 8 matched a season-high. Clearly fully recovered from his chest injury, Edelman turned 11 targets into eight receptions for 78 yards and two touchdowns, which made him the fantasy WR4 for the week. He's now the WR7 overall despite having scored only four touchdowns on 79 total targets, sixth-most among wide recievers, and 13 red-zone targets, tied for the most in the league.
Edelman faces a Ravens defense allowing 36.8 aFPA to wide receivers, 12th-most . Edelman draws primary coverage from slot cornerback Marlon Humphrey, who's allowing 18.40 yards per reception, ninth-most among cornerbacks. Edelman should see enough target volume alone to make him a safe WR1 for the week, and his continued heavy red zone usage makes him a likely touchdown candidate as well.
Week 8 vs Cleveland Browns
New England's wide receiver group has had a volatile identity in the 2019 season's first half, but Julian Edelman has been a constantly strong fantasy performer. His 86% snap share leads Patriots wide receivers, his PPR points per snap are also best in the crew at 0.25, and his 15.0% target share is #1 in the group. A lack of touchdowns has tempered his overall fantasy standing and last week's seven-reception zero-touchdown outing was good for Week 8's WR27 and an overall WR13 ranking.
Edelman draws a matchup with a Browns secondary that hasn't lived up to preseason expectations, as their 37.9 aFPA to wide receivers (eighth-most) attests. Edelman's eight red-zone targets trail only James White among Patriots receiving options, and like White, Edelman remains a strong positive touchdown regression candidate. He's a high-floor WR1 start for Week 8.
Week 7 at New York Jets
Julian Edelman led all Patriots wide receivers in snap share in Week 6 at 89% and turned 15 targets in a favorable matchup with the New York Giants into nine receptions for 113 yards, good for a WR10 fantasy ranking for the week. Edelman is averaging 9.3 targets per game, and he's the WR14 overall through Week 6.
Edelman draws primary coverage from Jets cornerback Brian Poole in Week 7, and while Poole as performed well so far, he's not a reason to fade Edelman. Edelman has demonstrated the ability to create separation from nearly anyone covering him, as his 10th-most 2.04 average yards of target separation indicates. Edelman's target volume gives him one of the highest floors among all wide receivers, and his 56 total targets tie him for fifth among all wide receivers. He's an easy start as a WR1 as usual.
Week 6 vs New York Giants
Julian Edelman put together an impressive performance in Week 5, considering the fact that if I had suffered a similar chest injury, I would be incapacitated on the couch for two weeks incapable of communication beyond moans and eye movements. For his part, Edelman turned a 92% snap share and nine targets into eight receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown, making him the WR10 for Week 5 and elevating him to the fantasy WR17 overall.
Edelman draws a wildly enticing matchup with Grant Haley in Week 6, who has been one of the least-effective cornerbacks in the NFL in coverage. Vegas gives New England an implied team total of 31 points, and New York's secondary has struggled overall to stop the pass, allowing 42.0 aFPA to wide receivers, the sixth-highest average in the league. Another week removed from his injury and a key cog in the Patriots' projected pass-heavy game plan, Edelman is a borderline WR1 start this week.
