Week 14 at Miami Dolphins
The New England Patriots head to Miami with a top five implied team total, facing a defense that ranks just 29th in total defense this season. New England struggled at Hard Rock Stadium surprisingly, but this Dolphins defensive unit doesn't have the pieces it had last year. Miami ranks just 21st in aFPA to WRs, and that was before top cornerback Xavien Howard was ruled out of this game. Julian Edelman makes for a solid start too, as Miami slot corner Bobby McCain has not played well. Fire up Edelman as a WR2.
Week 13 vs. Minnesota Vikings
The New England Patriots have a healthy implied team total of 27 points this week in a game hovering around an over/under of 50. Minnesota ranks top five in aFPA to WRs. Rob Gronkowski's return last week put a dent into Edelman's targets, only getting a season-low five of them. He still scored though, which is always a good bet for Edelman in this offense. However, that decrease in targets moves him down our rankings this week to a low-end WR2 with so many options now back in this offense, instead of the high-end WR2 he was before. The tough match-up is also a factor for Week 13.
Week 12 at New York Jets
The Patriots come off the bye week motivated to not lose consecutive games, and their implied team total reflects that. New England is tied for the second most expected points on the Sunday-Monday slate at 28.5 points. Plus, the Jets are just 24th in aFPA to WRs. Plus, Julian Edelman is second in the league over the past month with 10.7 targets per game. Only Stefon Diggs has been targeted more. This is a chance for Edelman to explode when matched up against Buster Skrine in the slot, who has been one of the worst slot corners in the league this year. The match-up and targets make Edelman a sure-fire WR2 with WR1 upside.
Week 10 at Green Bay Packers
The Patriots only have the eighth-highest implied team total of the Sunday slate at 26.5 points, a departure from their usual spot near the top of that weekly list. Perhaps some respect from the oddsmakers against this Titans defense, but Tennessee is only 28th in aFPA to WRs. Coming off suspension, Julian Edelman hasn't missed a beat. Almost nine targets per game and double-digit fantasy points every week locks Edelman into WR2 territory.
Week 8 vs. Green Bay Packers
In a showdown between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers in Week 9, expect a lot of points. New England has a monster implied team total of 31.5 points, highest of the week. Julian Edelman exploded last week and gets a match-up now against the Packers, who are ranked just 27th in aFPA to WRs. At 8.5 targets per game with heavy red zone use, Edelman is a top-20 WR.
Week 8 at Buffalo Bills
The Patriots head to Buffalo Monday night to face a Bills team they've averaged 33.7 points against in their last three meetings. New England has also scored at least 38 points in each of its last four games and has a Week 8 implied team total of 29 points. Sony Michel will not play this week, which means the Patriots could be even more pass happy. That can only benefit Edelman, who will avoid the Bills top corner in the slot. Edelman's eight targets per game since returning are a clear indication as well that he's a solid WR2 for Week 8.
Week 6 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Patriots have the highest implied team total of Week 6 at 31.5 points. The Chiefs are bottom half in the league in aFPA to WRs. Julian Edelman immediately saw nine targets in his return from suspension on a short week last Thursday night. He will provide WR2 numbers in PPR moving forward. Even in standard, he should be no worse than a FLEX/WR3 most weeks, including Week 6.
Week 5 vs. Indianapolis Colts (TNF)
The Patriots have the highest implied team total for Week 5 at 31 points, coming off a dominant performance against the Dolphins. Indy ranks just 13th in aFPA against WRs, but the Colts offense may have trouble moving the ball with a banged up O-Line and down its best pass-catcher in T.Y. Hilton. That could lead to even more possessions for the Patriots offense. What do we do with Julian Edelman coming back from suspension on a short week? Consider him a flex option in PPR with upside, given the short week. If you have better options, do not feel forced to start Edelman.
Fantasy Upside
Looking at our season-long projection for Edelman, he would be a top-20 WR in terms of PPR fantasy points per game. And it's not as if you would get zero points from your WR2 spot during the four weeks he's suspended, as you'd just start a different WR based on matchups.
Fantasy Downside
Edelman is coming off a torn ACL, and it's unclear if he'll still be as effective as he was before the injury at age 32. Plus, the suspension for four games makes for a headache for a time period that is almost a third of your fantasy regular season.
2018 Bottom Line
Our ranking for Edelman is based on his season-long stats over 12 games. At face value, his ADP is absurd based on him being ranked outside our top-40 WRs. However, he's top-20 in projected fantasy points per game, which would make his seventh-round ADP a bargain once Edelman returns. How confident are you that you can manage the suspension?
2017 Bottom Line
Julian Edelman has a torn ACL and is out for the 2017 season.
