Fantasy Upside
Julian Edelman put up a very solid 92-972-4 line last season in just 14 games. He caught at least four passes in 13 of those games and had at least six catches in 9 games. That type of production offers a steady floor in PPR leagues, where he finished as WR17 last year. While his 5-35-0 lines (Wk 5 v CIN) may not help people in standard leagues much, Edelman did go over 80 yards in 8 of his 14 games. Edelman was even WR27 in standard leagues last year and returns to an identical offense and surrounding cast as last year.
Fantasy Downside
Edelman will likely be catching passes from inexperienced QB Jimmy Garoppolo for a few games at the start of the season, which does add some uncertainty to his 2015 outlook. While the Patriots WR depth chart doesn't have any safe bets at the moment, it is not impossible that a WR project buried on the depth chart takes a step forward and offers Edelman some competition for snaps.
Bottom Line
Edelman makes for a reasonable pick at his 5th round ADP due to his rapport with Tom Brady and high floor in PPR formats.
Week 20 vs Colts
With the Patriots focusing on attacking the Ravens' secondary last week, every starting WR enjoyed a fine day. Edelman put up a very nice and Edelman-esque 8-74-0 line. He even added a long 51 yard TD pass in this one, on a fun trick play late in the second quarter. The Colts have a much softer aFPA matchup to WRs in standard scoring, ranking 20th, than in PPR scoring, where they rank 13th. Edelman's fantasy days are often enjoyed more by his PPR owners, than standard ones, but we have him Edelman as a fringe "WR1" this weekend, regardless of format.
Week 19 vs Ravens
Edelman's strong 2014 campaign (92-972-4) came to a quiet close, missing Weeks 16 and 17 due to a concussion. He's put in overtime this week with Brady, to re-establish any lost chemistry over that time. You'll want to double-check his status, but he is expected to play this weekend. Baltimore's secondary doesn't pose any particular problems for wideouts since the loss of Jimmy Smith, earlier int he season. We have Edelman as WR7 on the weekend.
Week 16 at Jets
Edelman scored in his second straight game, putting up a 7-88-1 line on 10 targets. This marks the fifth consecutive week that Edelman has led Patriots WRs in targets. This week, Senior Editor John Paulsen wrote in "Thinking Outside the Box" that "Julian Edelman is the #12 PPR WR since Week 9, and that includes his bye. #10 PPG over that span."
This week we have him as a solid WR2 in either scoring format.
UPDATE: Edelman will not play in Week 16.
Week 15 vs Miami
A long 69 yard TD padded Edelman's Week 14 stats. In all, he had a very nice 8-141-1. It was a performance enjoyed by owners in standard scoring leagues, as well as PPR. Joking aside, Edelman has led the Patriots WRs in targets four consecutive games, and has been a solid real-life option in more games than not this season. This weekend we rank him as a mid-range WR3, with his normal PPR bump into the low-end WR2 range.
Week 14 at Chargers
Edelman put up a 7-48-0 line in Week 13, which was enjoyed more by owners in PPR leagues. In standard scoring leagues, Edelman's general lack of yardage, coupled with his lack of TDs, make him a boom/bust play. His reception totals help him offer a nice floor in PPR leagues, though. This week we rank him as a high-end WR4, or low-end WR3, depending on your league size. He gets a massive PPR bump this week, all the way into the fringe WR2 conversation.
Week 13 at Green Bay
Edelman put up another nice line in PPR leagues in Week 12, with a solid 11-89 line on 15 targets. With Rob Gronkowski healthy and Brandon LaFell's emergence, Edelman hasn't been as needed of late. He's capable of putting up solid numbers any week, but his consistency has taken a hit. We rank him as a mid-to-high end WR3, depending on your league size, with his usual PPR bump into the WR2 conversation.
Week 12 vs Detroit
In Week 11, the Patriots passing game took a back seat to the rushing game. Even Edelman got involved in that action, rushing twice for 31 yards. He added 5-50 in the passing game, on eight targets. His total of 81 yards in a game where the WRs largely weren't needed is reasonably encouraging for owners. Nontheless, Edelman has become a bit more boom/busy in fantasy, and is hard to trust in your lineups.
This week we rank him as a low-end WR3 or mid-range WR4, depending on your league size. He's more startable in PPR leagues, with a bump to the WR2/3 conversation.
Week 5 at IND
Edelman started the season white-hot, as one of Brady's only reliable targets in the passing game. With Rob Gronkowski now healthy, and Brandon LaFell humming along nicely, Edleman's numbers have become more boom/bust in nature. Over his last four games, he has averaged a very nice 9-90-.5 in his two best games, but only a 2.5-29-0 line in the other two.
The Colts may be generous to QBs in fantasy, but they offer a bottom ten aFPA matchup for WRs. Given his recent inconsistency as well, we are cautiously ranking Edelman as a low-end WR3, with a PPR bump into the mid-range or high-end WR3 conversation, depending on your league size. He makes for a fine start in deeper leagues, but is a bench candidate in shallower formats.
Week 9 vs Denver
Edelman spent more time on the bench than usual in Week 8 and posted only a 1-14 line on four targets. We can only surmise his benching was some Belichick-style punishment for having two drops in the game, but the Patriots are rarely forthcoming about such things. Regardless, Edelman is now tied for the third most drops in the NFL this season, with six in all. After posting WR1 numbers through the first weeks, the health of Rob Gronkowski and emergence of Brandon LaFell have really hurt his numbers. In the last five weeks he's only topped 50 yards once, and his 4-40 type lines look much less appealing in non-PPR formats.
We are projecting a bounceback from last week's abysmal showing, but we're only projecting him as a mid to low-end WR3 in standard, with his usual PPR value bump.
