Week 10 vs. Seattle
Julian Edelman is coming off of a 4-37-1 line on eight targets in a 41-25 win against the Bills in Week 8 before the bye. Edelman has not shown huge TD upside but remains a huge part of this Patriots passing game, as he has a 25.93 percent target share in his last four games (top-15 in the league). He should be a safe volume play week-to-week. He has a tough matchup against the Seahawks this week who are near the top of WR aFPA. Having Tom Brady back is a huge boost to this passing game overall and this they are again heavily favored.
Week 8 at Buffalo
Julian Edelman is coming off of a 9-60 line on 11 targets against the Steelers last week in a 27-16 win, a season-high in catches. Edelman leads the Patriots in target market share (22.13%) through the past six weeks, and has a 24.03 percent target share in his last four games (top-20 in the league). Edelman may not have huge touchdown upside, but he should be a safe volume play from week-to-week. He has a tough matchup against Nickell Robey-Coleman this week and is in an average matchup against the Bills, as they are right in the middle of teams in WR aFPA. Having Tom Brady back is a huge boost to this passing game overall, and the Patriots are again heavily-favored this week.
Week 7 at Pittsburgh
Julian Edelman is coming off of a 4-30 line on seven targets against the Bengals in a 35-17 win last week. Edelman leads the Patriots in Target Market Share (22.13%) through the past six weeks. He averaged 7.0 catches and 75 yards per game over the past two seasons on just over ten targets per game. Edelman may not have huge touchdown upside, but he should be a safe volume play week-to-week. It's an average matchup against the Steelers in Week 7, as they are allowing the second-most receptions in the league through six weeks and are right in the middle of teams in WR aFPA. You should keep an eye on Edelman's foot injury that had him find the injury report last week. Edelman has had foot injuries in the past, so until we know more, proceed with caution.
Week 6 vs. Cincinnati
Julian Edelman is coming off of a 5-35 line on 10 target in a 33-13 win against the Browns in Week 5. Edelman leads the Patriots in target market share (23.2%) through the past four weeks. He averaged 7.0 catches and 75 yards per game over the past two seasons on just over ten targets per game. Edelman may not have huge touchdown upside, but he should be a safe volume play week-to-week. In an average matchup against the Bengals in Week 6 (who are right in the middle of teams in WR aFPA), you should keep an eye on his foot injury that had him find the injury report last week. Edelman has had foot injuries in the past, so until we know more, proceed with caution. Having Tom Brady back is a huge boost to this passing game overall, and the Patriots are again heavily-favored and are playing at home.
Julian Edelman (foot) is coming off of a 1-66 line on 4 targets in a 0-16 shutout loss to the Bills in Week 4. Edelman leads the Patriots in Target Market Share (24.56%). He averaged 7.0 catches and 75 yards per game over the past two seasons on just over ten targets per game. In a average matchup against the Browns in Week 5 (who are right in the middle of teams in WR aFPA) you should keep an eye on his foot injury that had him find the injury report on Thursday. Edelman has had foot injuries in the past so until we know more, proceed with caution. That said he finally gets Tom Brady back this week in a game they are heavily favorited.
Week 4 vs. Buffalo
Julian Edelman (foot) is coming off of a 4- 38 line where the Patriots only took to the air 19 times with Jacoby Brissett at QB. Edelman leads the Patriots with a 27.59-percent target share, though Rob Gronkowki has cut into Edelman’s production in the past (which is a concern if he has a bigger role in Week 4). Despite the decent matchup against the Bills in Week 4, it is still tough to trust this passing game without Tom Brady
Week 3 vs. Houston
Julian Edelman (foot) is coming off of a 7-76 line on 11 targets in a 31-24 win against the Dolphins in Week 2. With Gronkowski out the first two weeks, Edelman has led the Patriots with a 26.47 percent target share. Gronk has cut into Edelman’s production in the past, so that is a concern if he plays in Week 3. Edelman averaged 7.0 catches and 75 yards per game over the past two seasons on just over ten targets per game. In a tough matchup against the Texans team in Week 3 (who are one of our below average teams in WR aFPA), it is tough to trust this passing game with a third-string quarterback.
Week 2 vs. Miami
Julian Edelman (foot) is coming off of a 7-66 line on 7 targets and 16 yards on three rushes in a 23-21 win against the Cardinals in Week 1. He is coming off surgery in the offseason, but seems to be back to full speed as he is again a key member of the short-intermediate passing game in New England. He averaged 7.0 catches and 75 yards per game over the past two seasons on just over ten targets per game. With Gronkowski out, Edelman led the team with a 22.22 percent target share. There is always the fear that if Gronk returns in Week 2 he could eat into Edelman’s production, as he historically has. In a strong matchup against the Dolphins in Week 2 (who are one of our above average teams in WR aFPA) Edelman could put up a similar stat line that Doug Baldwin did last week 9-92-1.
Week 1 at Arizona
Julian Edelman (foot) is coming off surgery in the offseason but seems to be back to full speed as he is not listed on the injury report. He averaged 7.0 catches and 75 yards per game over the past two seasons on just over ten targets per game. Edelman received 19.3 percent of the Patriots total targets in the red zone in 2015. In a poor matchup against the Cardinals (who are one of our below average teams in WR aFPA) could see time against stud cornerback Patrick Peterson, Edelman will be a low-end WR2.
Fantasy Upside
Julian Edelman is a mainstay for Tom Brady and the Patriots up-tempo, pass-happy offense. He is a key member of the short-intermediate game and a security blanket who has averaged 7.0 catches and 75 yards per game over the past two seasons on just over ten targets per game.
Fantasy Downside
Edelman has battled injuries, in particular foot problems in which he had a second surgery on in the offseason. He also will have to deal with the four-game suspension of Tom Brady and could lose targets to newly acquired tight end Martellus Bennett.
2016 Bottom Line
When healthy Edelman is a low end WR1 in PPR formats but health has been an issue. He could provide good value at his current ADP but the intermediate targets in this offense suddenly have a lot of mouths to feed.
