Super Bowl vs. Atlanta
Julian Edelman continued his dominance last week with a 8-118-1 line on 10 targets in a 36-17 win against the Steelers in the AFC Championship Game. His 29.3-percent target market share was second in the NFL this season and ranks fourth in yards after the catch (three yards per target). Edelman has a good overall matchup this week in regards to WR aFPA and will run the majority of his routes against Brian Poole in the slot.
AFC Championship vs. Pittsburgh
Julian Edelman is coming off of an explosive 8-137-0 line on 13 targets in a 34-16 win against the Texans in the Division Round. His 35.38 percent target share over the last four games is nearly ten percent larger than that of any other wide receiver on the slate. Edelman has a good overall matchup this week against a Steelers' defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest average fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season, but will see William Gay on the majority of his routes out of the slot. However, it’s a very poor matchup against the Steelers in regards to WR aFPA.
Divisional Round vs Houston
Julian Edelman is coming off of an explosive 8-151-1 line on 13 targets in a 35-14 win against the Dolphins in Week 17. His 36.64 percent target share over the last four games is more than six percent larger than any other wide receiver on the slate. His matchup isn’t fantastic against Kareem Jackson in the slot, but it is the most favorable in comparison to his teammates. There are game flow concerns, but if the Patriots get up big Edelman will likely be a big part of it. However, it’s a very poor matchup against the Texans in regards WR aFPA.
Week 17 at Miami
Julian Edelman is coming off of a 4-89-0 line on eight targets in a 41-3 win against the Jets in Week 16. Edelman is second in the league in target share and owns a massive 32.87 target market share over his past four games. It’s a very favorable matchup against the Dolphins in regards to WR aFPA. Edelman will be a mid-ranged WR1 in Week 17 against the Dolphins.
Week 16 vs. New York Jets
Julian Edelman is coming off of a 6-75-0 line on 12 targets in a 16-3 win against the Broncos in Week 15. Edelman is second in the league in target share and owns a massive 30.49 target market share over his past four games. It’s an above average matchup against the Jets in regards WR aFPA this week. Edelman will be a low-end WR1 in Week 16.
Week 15 at Denver
Julian Edelman is coming off of a 7-73-0 line on a massive 15 targets in a 30-23 win against the Ravens in Week 14. He is leading the league in target share since Week 9, but he is likely to run the majority of his routes against Chris Harris Jr. in the slot this week. It’s an extremely tough matchup against the Broncos in Week 15 in regards WR aFPA. Edelman will be a mid-ranged WR2 in Week 15.
Week 14 vs. Baltimore
Julian Edelman is coming off of a 8-101-0 line on a massive 12 targets in a 26-10 win against the Rams in Week 13. He has a 29.52 percent target market share over his past four games, securely leading the team. He has an above-average matchup against the Ravens in Week 14 in regards WR aFPA, and the Patriots are again heavily-favored at home. Edelman will be a low-end WR1 in Week 14
Week 13 vs. Los Angeles
Julian Edelman is coming off of a 8-83-0 line on a massive 11 targets in a 22-17 comeback win against the Jets in Week 12. He is third in the NFL in target market share over his last four games (29.41 percent), trailing just Mike Evans and Antonio Brown. He has an above-average matchup against the Rams in Week 13 in regards WR aFPA and they are again heavily-favored, but this time at home. Edelman will be a mid-range WR2.
Week 12 at New York Jets
Julian Edelman is coming off of a 8-77-1 line on a massive 17 targets in a 30-17 win against the 49ers in Week 11. Edelman has actually had incredibly steady volume this season: He has seen at least six targets in every game but one this year — coming in for seventh in the NFL in target share (27.8 percent). He has an average matchup against the Jets in Week 12 in regards WR aFPA, and the Patriots are again heavily favored on the road. Edelman will be a low-end WR1 this week.
Week 11 at San Francisco
Julian Edelman is coming off of a 7-99 line on nine targets in a 31-24 loss against the Seahawks in Week 10. Edelman has actually had incredibly steady volume this season: He has seen at least six targets in every game, but one this year — 13th in the NFL in target share (26.89 percent) in the last four games by the way. He’s scored just one touchdown this year, a number that could be more likely to see positive regression with Gronkowski likely out. He has a favorable matchup against the 49ers in Week 11 in regards WR aFPA and the Patriots are again heavily favored.
