Week 6 at Houston Texans
Yes, Josh Allen is a rookie. Yes, he will have games where he struggles. But the numbers last week were really bad. He only threw 19 passes and ended up throwing for 82 yards. The bright spot was a rushing touchdown. Overall, he is only completing 53% of his passes and has thrown only two touchdowns passes while throwing five picks.
Allen will face a Texans defense that is ranked 28th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Even with the good matchup, Allen ranks third lowest starting quarterback for Week 6. Allen continues to be a poor fantasy choice to be on your roster in 2018. Keep him on the waiver wire.
Week 5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Josh Allen looked like a rookie last Sunday, turning the ball over three times and throwing for only 151 yards on 33 attempts. It was his worst outing so far.
The Bills will face a Titans defense ranked 16th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Buffalo will be back home and that should make it more comfortable for Allen, but he is still far away from being fantasy relevant. Keep Allen on the waiver wire for Week 5. He remains in the bottom of the QB fantasy rankings.
Week 4 at Green Bay Packers
Last week showed that you never know what you are going to get in the NFL. Josh Allen was solid as the Bills pulled the biggest upset in decades (from a point spread view). He completed 68 percent of his passes for 196 yards and a touchdown—most importantly, he didn't turn it over. He was also playing without his best offensive weapon (LeSean McCoy) which made it even more impressive.
There will probably be no sneaking up on the Packers this week. Allen has a good matchup against a defense ranked 30th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Despite last week's performance and the positive matchup, Allen isn't quite ready for fantasy attention with those numbers. Keep him on the waiver wire for Week 4.
Week 3 at Minnesota Vikings
Josh Allen will make his second career start this Sunday and first on the road. His first start had some bright spots, but he definitely will struggle because Buffalo's offense isn't very good. He threw for 245 yards and one touchdown in Week 2 but was also picked off twice and sacked five times.
Allen will face a very good Minnesota defense ranked second in aFPA to quarterbacks. It won't help to play in a very loud stadium with a below-average offensive line. Buffalo's offense is the second-worst in the NFL after two weeks and we don't expect it to get much better. Keep Allen on the waiver wire as he rates as the lowest starting quarterback in fantasy for Week 3.
Week 2 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Josh Allen will get his first career start after the Nathan Peterman Show was canceled. After Peterman was benched last week, Allen made his NFL debut, going 6-for-15 with 74 yards. He was sacked three times.
Allen will face a very tough Chargers defense that is one of the better units against the pass. The Bills offense will struggle and Allen will go through growing pains. Eventually, he might settle in, but most likely in 2019. Keep Allen on the waiver wire.
Fantasy Upside
Josh Allen enters the NFL with a chance to be the starting quarterback in Week 1. He will compete with A.J. McCarron for the starting job. At 6-foot-5, Allen is a physical specimen with a cannon for an arm. There is no doubt he is the quarterback of the future, but when that tenure begins is still to be determined.
Fantasy Downside
There were a lot of questions about Allen coming out of college. HIs completion rate was very low and he did not play in a big-time college program (Wyoming). There are some questions on how quickly he can adjust to the mental part of the NFL game. There is also a chance he is not the starter Week 1, and if McCarron has success, he could be an observer his first season.
2018 Bottom Line
Allen should not be considered a QB1 or QB2. Even if he is the starter, there are too many risks to expect him to help you this season. However, he could be a sleeper so keep an eye on him if he does get the starting job. Right now, he ranks third in our fantasy rankings for rookie quarterbacks and 32nd overall. Most likely, he will be a waiver pickup if he starts to perform.
