Fantasy Upside
It was a break-through season for Josh Allen who now is considered one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in the NFL. The Bills upgraded the offensive weapons around him going into 2020 including the acquisition of receivers Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley. This enabled Allen to throw for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdown passes. He increased his passing yards by almost 1,500 yards from 2019. And although his rushing yards have steadily declined over the past two seasons, he is still a threat, especially in the red zone where he has 17 rushing touchdowns over the past two years.
Fantasy Downside
The big question is will there be some decline in Allen's numbers. The rest of the league has a good idea of who he is and what he is capable of and that will make NFL defensive coordinators focus even more on him. Also, can Buffalo get more out of their running backs in the running game? They don't have a premier back and even though Zack Moss and Devin Singletary were serviceable, will that hurt Allen's effectiveness with an average running game.
2021 Bottom Line
If you had Allen on your roster last season, you probably got him at great value in your draft. That will not happen in 2021 as he is the consensus No. 2 fantasy quarterback and his ADP has him going in the late third or early fourth round. The rushing numbers are key in keeping him at the top of the fantasy rankings as long as he keeps scoring touchdowns. Some might even venture to grab him earlier as the Bills offense should be better overall this season which could mean even better overall fantasy numbers for Allen.
Week 17 vs. Miami
The Bills are playing for the No. 2 seed in the AFC so it appears Josh Allen will at least start. Last week, he continued his hot streak with 320 passing yards and four touchdown passes. Buffalo's offense with the exception of the first half of the Steelers game, has been on fire.
The Dolphins are up next and are ranked 11th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Miami is playing for their playoff lives so expect everyone who is healthy to be on the defensive side of the ball on Sunday for Miami. Allen threw for 415 yards and four touchdowns when they played the 'Fins back in Week 2.
Start Allen, but understand he might only play a half. He still rates a QB1 for Week 17 and the way he has been playing, a half might be enough. Head coach Sean McDermott says he has a plan but isn't revealing it.
Week 16 at New England
Josh Allen had one of the best fantasy outings of the season for any quarterback throwing for 359 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran for 33 yards and another two touchdowns. Allen is playing just as well as anybody in the league at this point and has become a very reliable fantasy quarterback.
Allen will face the Patriots who are ranked seventh in aFPA to quarterbacks. In the first meeting this season, Allen only threw for 154 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception. However, both teams are playing at different levels right now and New England lost their best cornerback Stephon Gilmore to injury.
Start Allen in all leagues and formats for Week 16 as a solid QB1. Don't expect numbers like last week, but definitely better numbers than the first meeting between the two teams.
Week 15 at Denver
Josh Allen had a strong performance, especially in the second half, against the Steelers. He threw for 238 yards, two touchdowns and an interception while also running for 28 yards. That's decent numbers against a very good defense and a victory for the Bills.
Allen will face another tough pass defense, this time on the road. The Broncos are ranked sixth in aFPA to quarterbacks. It will be interesting to see how he handles this game after the emotional win.
Start Allen despite the tough matchup. He ranks a solid QB1 for Week 15. He has proven he can handle big-time defenses this season and should still put up good numbers in Denver.
Week 14 vs. Pittsburgh
Josh Allen had one of his best games of the season throwing for 375 yards and four touchdowns. After a mid-season slump, Allen seems to have figured out the issues that were limiting the Bills' passing game. It was also the first time he didn't throw a pick in the last three games.
Allen will face the Steelers who are ranked third in aFPA to quarterbacks. The Steelers pass rush has been very good, but Allen's ability to escape the pocket should counter that.
Start Allen as a QB1 against Pittsburgh on Sunday night. This is a chance for Allen to make his mark on national TV and we expect him to take advantage of it.
Week 13 vs. San Francisco
Josh Allen looked like the 2019 version of himself with a very efficient game that wasn't great for fantasy owners who have been used to top 10 numbers. He only threw for 157 yards and one touchdown. He also threw his fourth interception in the last four games. One thing that did stay the same is he ran for 32 yards and a touchdown. And he did get his team a win.
Allen will face the Niners on Monday Night Football in Arizona. San Francisco is ranked sixth in aFPA to quarterbacks and is coming off a big division win. The 49ers have been up and down on defense and lose a home game with Santa Clara booting them out of Levi Stadium.
Start Allen despite the tough matchup as a top-five fantasy quarterback. The Bills offense has been good most of the time this season and even though Allen has turned the ball over lately, we expect a good outing for Week 13.
Week 12 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
It was a mixed result for Josh Allen in a loss to Arizona before the bye week. He threw his first multi-interception game since Week 5. He has slowed down over the last month with only five passing touchdowns in the past four games. Don't panic just yet as Allen still has two rushing touchdowns over that stretch and also a receiving touchdown.
Allen will face the Chargers who are 26th in aFPA to quarterbacks. This is a good chance for Allen to get back on track with a favorable matchup coming off the bye week.
Start Allen as a top 5 fantasy quarterback for Week 12. There should be a lot of points scored in Buffalo on Sunday and the Bills are rested and ready to continue their march to the AFC East title.
Week 10 at Arizona
The numbers last week for Josh Allen weren't just his best of the season. They were one of the best fantasy performances of 2020. Allen completed 82% of his passes for 415 yards and three touchdown passes while he ran for another touchdown in a shootout win over Seattle. He broke a two-game streak of not throwing a touchdown pass.
Allen has another great matchup facing the Cardinals who are 26th in aFPA to quarterbacks. This game will be on the road in the desert so we don't expect him to put up last week's numbers but should have a big game.
Start Allen in all leagues and formats as he ranks a top 5 fantasy quarterback for Week 10. This should be another shootout with two of the top young quarterbacks in the NFL.
Week 9 vs. Seattle
Josh Allen had his worst performance of the season and has been trending down the past month. He threw for only115 yards and zero touchdown passes. He did score a rushing touchdown. Allen now has back-to-back games without a touchdown pass. It's not time to panic yet, but if the trend continues, Allen's stock will drop.
This week, Allen faces the Seahawks who are dead last in aFPA to quarterbacks. This is the perfect opportunity and matchup for a bounce-back game. The Bills offense still might have some issues with personnel but they have proven they can be good with Allen being the driving force.
Week 8 vs. Patriots
After a sub-par week for Josh Allen in Week 6, his numbers bounced back - sort of. He completed almost 70% of his passes, threw for 307 yards and ran for 61 yards. However, one thing missing. Touchdowns. And not just for Allen. The entire Bills offense relied on field goals to defeat New York. So after the fast start to the season, Allen has cooled down a little bit.
Allen will face the Patriots who have struggled against in the past. He averaged only 180 passing yards in the two meetings last season, threw two touchdown passes and three interceptions. New England is ranked No. 1 in aFPA to quarterbacks this season although it seems the Pats defense has been off somewhat overall.
Start Allen as QB1 for Week 8. Even though he is ranked a little lower than he has been the past several weeks, he is still going to put up decent numbers even with the unfavorable matchup.
