Week 6 vs. New York Giants
It was not a good day for the Bills in London, but Josh Allen still had strong numbers. He threw for a season-high 359 yards and added two touchdowns. He didn't have great rushing numbers but did score a rushing touchdown. He did throw his fifth interception of the season.
Allen will face the Giants on Sunday who are ranked 17th in aFPA to quarterbacks. He has continued to put up very good fantasy numbers since Week 1 and we don't expect that to change this week.
Start Allen as the top fantasy quarterback for Week 6. The Giants are a mess right now and the Bills will be on a mission after losing last week. Expect plenty of points by Buffalo and the fantasy stats that usually accompany it.
Week 5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
Since Week 1, Josh Allen has been the best quarterback in the NFL and the No. 1 fantasy quarterback as well. Last week, he threw for 320 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He added a rushing touchdown. Allen now how has 8 touchdown passes, 2 rushing touchdowns and 1 interception the last three games while averaging 37 points per game.
The Bills face the Jaguars who are ranked 14th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Allen should keep it rolling in London against a team whose pass defense is average.
Start Allen as a top-five fantasy quarterback for Week 5. Nobody is playing as good as him right now and there is no reason to think he will not continue to put up big numbers.
Week 4 vs. Miami Dolphins
Josh Allen had a decent game last week throwing for 218 yards and a touchdown. He rushed a season-high 46 yards and his first touchdown on the ground this season. Allen has stayed away from the turnovers that plagued him Week 1 and although he is not playing at the highest level, his numbers are acceptable at this point.
Allen faces the Dolphins who are ranked 6th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Last season, he threw for 400 and 302 yards in the two regular season games against the Fins and added six touchdown passes. In the playoffs, he threw for 352 yards and three more touchdowns.
Start Allen as one of the top fantasy quarterbacks for Week 4. We like his history against Miami and he has played good the last two weeks so that poor performance in the opener hasn't phased him.
Week 3 at Washington Commanders
Josh Allen bounced back with a good outing last Sunday against the Raiders. He completed 84% of his passes for 274 yards and three touchdown passes. The better news was zero turnovers. The only negative was that he only rushed for seven yards, which is low for Allen.
Next up is the surprising Commanders. Washington's defense has been better this season and will be a formidable challenge for Buffalo on the road.
Once again, Allen ranks as a top-five fantasy quarterback and should be in your starting lineup. We don't expect as many passing yards as last week, but we do expect the rushing yards to go back over 30 yards.
Week 2 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
It was a nightmare opener for Josh Allen. Four turnovers and a loss to a division rival without their starting quarterback is not how Bills fans envisioned Monday night. Allen threw for 236 yards and a touchdown and added 36 yards rushing, but it was an ugly night and if your league punishes players for turnovers, then it was an extremely bad start for Allen.
Next up is the Raiders. This is a good matchup for a bounce back game at home for Allen against a Vegas defense that is not well-regarded. Lots of potential for a big game for the Buffalo offense.
Start Allen as a top fantasy quarterback for Week 2. We are expecting a minimum of 250 yards this week and more than one touchdown. We also don't expect four turnovers although considering Allen's history, it's not out of the question.
Week 1 at New York Jets
Josh Allen struggled against the Jets in the two meetings in 2022. He threw for 205 yards in the first meeting and a season-low 147 yards in the second. Allen threw only one touchdown and two interceptions in the two games, but he did bail out fantasy managers with three rushing touchdowns.
The Jets defense will be one of the best in the league in 2023. These two teams will play twice in what should be intense and competitive situations. Despite Allen's stat sheet from last season, he still is one of the best fantasy quarterbacks entering the year and has the ability to have a big game no matter the opponent.
Start Allen as a top-5 fantasy quarterback for Week 1. Buffalo will still have one of the best offenses in the NFL and that means the Bills will put up numbers in the majority of games this season.
Fantasy Upside
Josh Allen continued his strong fantasy standing as the second-highest scoring fantasy QB in 2022. His numbers remain consistent throwing for over 4,000 yards in each of the past three seasons. Allen also has thrown a minimum of 35 touchdown passes per season over that span. He also remains an asset in the running game with over 700 yards in each of the past two seasons.
Fantasy Downside
The turnovers remain the biggest issue surrounding Allen. He gave away the ball 19 times last season and some of those were in key situations. Part of that stems by the way he plays so you take the good with the bad. There is some talent around Allen as far as skill players are concerned, but at times he had to rely too much on Stefon Diggs and other players did not step up.
2023 Bottom Line
Allen remains one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL as he is in his prime. The biggest decision is when to take him and do you take him ahead of Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts. However, those three are at the top of the rankings and really you can't go wrong with any one of them. Officially, we have him third right now and going in the mid-to-late second round.
Week 17 at Cincinnati Bengals
Despite a huge win for the Bills, Josh Allen's fantasy numbers were modest. He threw for only 172 yard, though he did have two touchdown passes. He also threw two interceptions. Once again, his rushing numbers helped boost his fantasy day. He rushed for 41 yards and a touchdown.
Allen faces the Bengals who are ranked 22nd in aFPA to quarterbacks. That ranking is misleading because Cincy has played much better defense over the last two months.
Start Allen as one of the top fantasy quarterbacks for Week 17 as he continues to put up fantasy numbers, even when he doesn't play his best on the field. We expect a shootout with AFC seeding on the line.
Week 16 at Chicago Bears
After some average fantasy outings in recent weeks, Josh Allen played like the best quarterback in the league last week. He threw for 304 yards, 4 touchdown passes, and ran for 77 yards. It doesn't get much better than that and shows why Allen is always ranked in the top five each week.
Allen has a road matchup in Chicago who is ranked 26th in aFPA to quarterbacks. The winter weather shouldn't affect these two teams who are used to it so we expect Allen to take advantage of this favorable matchup.
Start Allen as one of the top fantasy quarterbacks for Week 16 as he and Patrick Mahomes are the two quarterbacks in the NFL you can count on every week.
Week 15 vs. Miami Dolphins
Josh Allen had a season-low 147 passing yards but made up for it with a decent rushing performance for 47 yards and a touchdown. He also had one passing touchdown. Allen has stayed away from the turnovers for the most part, but he also has had issues with pressure as the Bills offensive line hasn't been sharp over the past month.
Allen faces the Dolphins who are ranked 25th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Miami won the first meeting of the season in South Florida where Allen threw for 400 yards and two touchdowns. The X factor here is weather as Buffalo will be cold and windy.
Start Allen as a top-five fantasy quarterback for Week 15. Even with the weather, the matchup is very favorable against the Dolphins and we saw what Allen did to them the first meeting.
