Week 7 at New York Jets
Josh Allen had his worst performance of the season completing only 52% of his passes for 122 passing yards. He did still throw two touchdowns, but also another pick which makes three over the past two games after throwing only one in his first four games. He did rush for 42 yards which is his highest total since Week 1, but he also did not score a rushing touchdown for the second straight game
Next up is another meeting with the Jets who are ranked 14th in aFPA to quarterbacks. In the first meeting this season, Allen threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns. He also rushed for a season-high 57 yards and scored a rushing touchdown.
Despite a two-game losing streak, Allen will be just fine. Start him as a top 5 fantasy quarterback against a Jets team that is a mess right now. Allen will get back to the numbers we have gotten used to seeing.
Week 6 vs. Kansas City
Josh Allen came back down to earth a little on Tuesday. He threw multiple interceptions in a game for the first time this season and completed a season-low 64% of his passes. Still not awful NFL numbers as he did throw two more touchdown passes, but just wasn't the huge fantasy numbers we have gotten from Allen the first four games. Not to worry though. Allen will bounce back.
And it could easily happen this Monday. Allen faces Kansas City who is ranked 11th in aFPA to quarterbacks. However, we just watched the Chiefs get lit up by Derek Carr. Allen will also need some help from the running game which has been subpar this season and he still has shined.
Allen is a great start against KC at home and is ranked a top-five fantasy quarterback. We expect this game to be a shootout which means huge numbers for both QBs. Start Allen in all leagues and formats.
Week 5 at Tennessee
Josh Allen was held under 300 passing yards for the first time this season but still threw two touchdown passes and ran for one more. The consistency is very encouraging this season as he has been very accurate with his middle to long range targets which is exemplified by his 71% completion rate. The ability to run the ball has not been sacrificed through four weeks either.
Allen will face the Titans who 28th in aFPA to quarterbacks. There has been chaos in the Tennessee camp because of COVID-19 and the game already has been moved to Tuesday night. If there are more positives from the Titans, the game could be in jeopardy. Have another quarterback ready Sunday morning to make a decision.
Otherwise, Allen is a top-five fantasy quarterback for Week 5. The matchup plus the way he has been playing puts him a good spot to keep succeeding. Start him but keep an eye on the Bills situation with the Titans.
Week 4 at Las Vegas
Now there is MVP talk for Josh Allen. Who would have predicted that? Allen had another strong game in Week 3 and has completed 71% of his passes for 1,038 yards, 10 touchdowns and only one interception so far this season. He has also rushed for two touchdowns. The numbers are a fantasy owners dream. And there is no reason to think he cannot keep this pace.
The Bills will hit the road and visit the Raiders who are 7th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Las Vegas was very good in their home opener and the trip for Buffalo might be a factor. However, even with a tough matchup, we are siding with the hot hand.
Start Allen in all leagues and formats as a solid QB1. Although it might be hard for him to throw for four touchdowns again this week, he will be good enough to help your fantasy team.
Week 3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
It was another strong game for Josh Allen and some people are now proclaiming him an MVP candidate. He threw for 415 yards and 4 touchdowns. Only downside was the 16 yards rushing which was way below his average. But there is little doubt that he has elevated his play in his third season.
Allen will face a very good Rams defense that is ranked eighth in aFPA to quarterbacks. He didn't see very good defenses in the first two games but this will be a much bigger challenge, especially with the pass rush and Aaron Donald on the other side of the ball.
Allen has become a legit QB1 this season and probably was a steal in your draft. Even with a pretty tough matchup, he is still a top-10 fantasy quarterback for Week 3. Start him in all leagues and formats as we expect 250 passing yards and at least two touchdowns.
Week 2 vs Miami
The first thing that stood out from Buffalo's win last week was that Josh Allen threw 46 passes, a career-high. And this was not a game the Bills were playing catch-up. Allen is turning into one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. Of course, his rushing numbers continue to be a reason why. He ran for 57 yards and a touchdown. Add that to the 312 passing yards and 2 touchdowns and you can see why is now a major fantasy quarterback.
Allen will face the Dolphins who are ranked 27th in aFPA to quarterbacks. He was very successful against Miami last year accounting for 6 total touchdowns in the two meetings.
It appears Allen will be a QB1 most of this season and if the passing game clicks like it did last week, he could be a top-5 fantasy quarterback this season. Start Allen in all leagues and formats for Week 2 against the 'Fins. Expect a big offensive game for the Buffalo offense with Allen leading the way.
Week 1 vs. New York Jets
Josh Allen begins his third season the same way he began his second season - against division rival New York. Allen has not fared well against the Jets with two full games where he threw only one touchdown pass and four interceptions. He did run for two touchdowns to help his fantasy numbers.
In 2020, Allen now has another weapon in the passing game in Stefon Diggs. And the Jets defense lost two of their best players this offseason in Jamal Adams and C.J. Mosley. New York was 21st in aFPA to quarterbacks last season so this looks to have the potential for a good start for Allen for the 2020 season.
Start Allen in all leagues and formats as a solid QB1 on Sunday. This could be a breakout season for him and we will see if that starts right away in Week 1. His passing numbers should rise and if he keeps efficiently running the football, we should see what many are predicting - a star quarterback in Buffalo.
Fantasy Upside
Josh Allen improved from his rookie season to his second season in many ways. His completion percentage went from 52.8% to 58.8%. His passing yardage went from 2,074 to 3,089. His passing touchdowns doubled from 10 to 20 and his interception total dropped from 12 to 9. We can expect him to raise those numbers more, especially with the addition of WR Stefon Diggs. But the key to Allen's fantasy value is his rushing numbers. Allen ran for 510 yards and nine touchdowns in 2019. That rushing total was third in the NFL for quarterbacks behind Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray.
Fantasy Downside
Allen's passing numbers are far from elite. He ranked 30th in passing yards per game and his passer rating ranked 24th. And since his rushing stats are what elevates him in the fantasy quarterback rankings, the fact he averaged 6.8 carries per game plus he was sacked 38 times (10th in NFL) puts him at a higher risk for injury. The Buffalo offense also still lacks in high-impact skill players, even with the acquisition of Diggs.
2020 Bottom Line
Allen has solidified himself as the second-best fantasy quarterback option (behind Jackson) from the 2018 NFL Draft. We expect more improvement in his third season and his passing numbers to rise above 3,700 yards. The touchdown and interception rate and rushing totals should stay the same and if that's the case, it pushes Allen into a QB1 ranking for the 2020 season. Allen's ADP suggests he is being taken as the seventh quarterback on average which coincides with his value as the seventh-ranked quarterback ahead of veterans like Matt Ryan, Tom Brady and Drew Brees.
Week 16 at New England
Despite another win, Josh Allen put up weak fantasy numbers for the second straight week. He did throw a touchdown pass and ran for a touchdown, but that was really the only positive. He ended up throwing for 139 yards which was a season-low.
Allen will have an even tougher matchup against the Patriots this week. New England is ranked 1st in aFPA to quarterbacks. In the first meeting this season, Allen threw three interceptions against the Pats.
Buffalo has been conservative and New England's defense has been very good. That combination keeps Allen on the bench for Week 16 as a low-end QB2.
Week 15 at Pittsburgh
Josh Allen only completed 43% of his passes in the loss to the Ravens. He ended up with a season-low 146 yards passing and lost a fumble, He did throw one touchdown pass. Allen's numbers have been lower against better defenses so keep that in mind.
The Steelers are the next opponent and Pittsburgh is ranked third in aFPA to quarterbacks. This is a prime-time game on Sunday night on the road, so the conservative game plan should remain,
Keep Allen on the bench for Week15 as he only ranks a QB2 against the Steelers.
