Week 5 at Washington
Goff had a forgettable performance last week against the lowly Giants defense as he finished the game with 25-of-32 passing along with 200 yards and one touchdown. If it wasn’t for Cooper Kupp breaking off a 55-yard catch-and-run touchdown in the fourth quarter, Goff’s day would have been a really bad one. With the season a quarter way done, Goff has been an average QB who has been playing with above average receivers, and his production shows it. Going up against Washington this week, he’ll face the 19th ranked aFPA defense against QBs, so Goff might have some appeal as a QB2 streamer in the league’s first week of byes.
Week 3 at Buffalo
Jared Goff had quite the showing last week against the Eagles as he went 20-of-27 for 267 yards and three touchdowns. Goff looked every bit as good as he did in his breakout in 2018 as his ability to make the right reads paid dividends. Goff has looked good this season against some not so great defenses in Dallas and Philly, however the Buffalo Bills one of the leagues best defenses with arguably the best cornerback in the league in Tre’Davious White.
The Rams offensive line will be tested in this one and so again will Goff’s decision-making. Don’t expect another three-score performance from Goff as he’s firmly on the QB2 picture in this one.
Week 2 at Philadelphia
In throwing the ball 31 times in the season opener against Dallas, all Goff had to show for it was 275 yards with one interception and no touchdowns. Even though the Rams’ only touchdowns came on the ground, the high-tempo offense and diverse looks all around the field should give Goff owners optimism moving forward. The Philadelphia defense still might be without key members of their defensive line, which might benefit the Rams and their play speed, giving Goff plenty of opportunities for short and intermediate passes. Goff is looking like a QB2 in this one as the lack of downfield throws limit his big-play potential.
Week 1 vs. Dallas
Amid a turbulent 2019 season, Jared Goff as well as the Rams offense got back on track following their BYE week after moving away from their usual three-WR set to deploy heavier 12-personnel. During that stretch, Goff threw the ball a season-high 51 times in a Week 15 game against the Dallas Cowboys, yet he still threw for under 300 yards as well as two scores and one interception. A fierce Dallas front-seven might spell doom for the Rams offensive line and Goff’s frequent fumbling issues and keep Goff as a firm QB2 in this one.
Fantasy Upside
Last season was a far cry for Jared Goff’s 2018 season where he looked to be one of the brightest young QBs in the NFL. After a flurry of injuries to his receiving group and having to deal with one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, Goff finished the season as a high-end QB2. There is plenty of reason for optimism for Goff in 2020 as WR Cooper Kupp will finally have a clean bill of health—and TE Tyler Higbee has seemingly had a late-season breakout last year. Alongside WR Robert Woods and capable slot WR Josh Reynolds, Goff has plenty of weapons and one of the best offensive minds in head coach Sean McVay to recapture some of his 2018 form.
Fantasy Downside
Even though Goff had adequate skill players to succeed last season, he could not survive the poor offensive line play. With defenders consistently harassing the pocket, Goff threw for a career-high 16 interceptions and had 10 fumbles. With the Rams inability to bolster their offensive line in the off-season, there is potential for this o-line to get worse. Goff will also be without his top deep-play specialist in Brandin Cooks after his trade to the Rams this off-season, potentially capping his big-play opportunities.
2020 Bottom Line
Goff proved last season that he does not have the requisite talent to survive poor offensive line play, which will be the biggest narrative in the 2020 season. We have Goff ranked 19th amongst quarterbacks and his current ADP in 12-team leagues currently has him going in the early 12th round. McVay’s switch to a two-tight end late last season seemed to quell some offensive line play as well as improve Goff’s performance. If the team can grow on this, Goff might be able to overcome his current QB2 ADP.
Week 17 vs Arizona Cardinals
Jared Goff enters the final week of the 2019 NFL season as the fantasy QB16, which would be a disappointing outcome for time travelers from preseason fantasy drafts visiting the future. Goff essentially operated as a high-end QB2, with QB1 weeks sprinkled in primarily against poor passing defenses.
The Cardinals visit Los Angeles for the week, and Goff will face off against the welcoming Arizona pass defense. Well, perhaps he'll see limited snaps with nothing on the line for the Rams, or perhaps he won't line up for any snaps at all if the team elects to start Blake Bortles. Goff probably won't have a large enough snap share to be startable in Week 17, but if the unlikely occurs and he plays a significant portion of the offensive snaps, his matchup with an Arizona defense and its 28th-ranked quarterback aFPA is attractive. You're better off targeting a quarterback playing for a team in playoff contention.
Week 15 at Dallas Cowboys
Jared Goff had a useful high-end QB2 fantasy performance in Week 14 against a Seahawks defense that ranks 17th in aFPA to quarterbacks, and he finished coincidentally as the QB17. Goff threw for 293 yards and two touchdowns but also threw two interceptions. Goff leaned heavily on both tight end Tyler Higbee with 11 targets and wide receiver Robert Woods with nine targets.
Goff's fantasy success has correlated heavily with how the opposing team ranks in aFPA allowed to quarterbacks, and that trend continued last week. The Rams face off against the Cowboys in Week 15, who rank 19th in aFPA to quarterbacks, slightly lower than the Seahawks, so expecting another high-end QB2 performance from Goff seems reasonable. The Cowboys defense is dealing with a number of injuries of varying severity, which improves Goff's prospects somewhat, but if you've made it to Week 15 in redraft playoffs, you almost certainly have a better option.
Week 14 at Seattle Seahawks
Jared Goff finally broke free from a three-week string of fantasy performances outside of the top 24 quarterbacks, finishing as the QB4 in Week 13 against a weak Cardinals pass defense. Goff's success is somewhat predictable, as he's faced six defenses with a top-10 aFPA to quarterbacks, and he's had a weekly finish outside of the top-24 quarterbacks in five of those six games. In four of the five games in which he's faced a defense among the bottom ten teams in quarterback aFPA, he's finished as a QB1.
The Seahawks, Goff's Week 14 opponent, rank 14th in aFPA to quarterbacks, though they appear to have improved defensively over the past few weeks. Goff faced the Seahawks in Week 5 and managed a QB12 finish for the week, which might represent his ceiling this week. A more reasonable expectation would for high-end QB2 scoring, and for week one of most fantasy playoffs, his a risky start.
Week 13 at Arizona Cardinals
Jared Goff put forth yet another disappointing fantasy performance in Week 12 with 212 passing yards and two interceptions, which led to his ranking as QB27 for the week. It was his third straight game without throwing a touchdown, and not coincidentally also his third straight game against a defense in the top ten in aFPA to quarterbacks. Outside of 2QB and superflex leagues, Goff has fallen off the radar as a viable fantasy starter.
Week 13 presents an oasis in the desert for Goff and the Rams, as they face a Cardinals defense allowing the highest aFPA in the league to opposing quarterbacks. While the matchup alone makes Goff enticing, the offensive struggles of the Rams make it difficult to project him as a QB1. This is probably the last week Goff should be anywhere near your starting lineup, as his next three matchups against the Seahawks, Cowboys, and 49ers all feature defenses among the top-12 in aFPA to quarterbacks.
Week 12 vs Baltimore Ravens
Jared Goff and the Rams' offense predictably struggled against the Bears defense in Week 11 with just 173 passing yards and an interception and ranked as the QB27 for the week after finishing as the QB26 for the week prior. Goff has seen pressure on more total dropbacks than all but four other quarterbacks, and he ranks as the fantasy QB21 through Week 11.
Goff gets no respite in Week 12, as he'll line up against a Baltimore defense that has improved significantly after some early-season inconsistency. The Ravens blitz more frequently than any other team, and their 12.9 aFPA to quarterbacks is the sixth-lowest figure. The addition of Marcus Peters has helped to turn a good secondary into a great one, while the Ravens have allowed a 20th-ranked aFPA to running backs. Goff is a shaky start at best as a low-end QB2.
