Fantasy Upside
Jared Goff finished the 2018 season as the QB7 in fantasy scoring, yet his current ADP makes him the 11th QB off the board in the eighth round. Cooper Kupp was tied with Robert Woods for the team lead in targets in the seven games he played at full health, so Goff's numbers represent nine games without one of his top receiving options. Goff has increased his yardage and touchdown totals in each of his first three seasons, and there's reason to expect that trend to continue into his fourth season.
Fantasy Downside
Goff has benefitted from playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, but the Rams lost LG Roger Saffold and C John Sullivan to free agency, creating the possibility of a step back for the O-line. Furthermore, if Cooper Kupp's presence is key to Goff hitting his fantasy ceiling, Kupp's proclivity to injury remains in question. Kupp suffered a concussion and a sprained MCL in 2018 before a torn ACL ended his season prematurely, and he'll enter the 2019 season only nine months removed from ACL surgery.
2019 Bottom Line
The Rams retain both of their elite offensive tackles, and McVay's creative playcalling should help mitigate the transition to new faces on the interior of the line. Goff is a value at his late-eighth to early-ninth round ADP, and if his receiving corps can stay healthy, the potential is there for him to put up top-five numbers at the position.
Week 19 vs. Dallas Cowboys
In his third NFL season, Jared Goff completed 364-of-561 pass attempts for 4,688 yards with 32 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. While the 12 picks were five more than Goff threw in 2017, the signal-caller set new career-highs in passing yards, touchdowns, completion percentage and QB rating. That said, Goff struggled following the Rams’ bye week and shootout victory over the Chiefs. Part of that was due to the defenses that L.A. faced, but Goff’s production and efficiency have also taken a hit since Cooper Kupp suffered a season-ending injury. As for his matchup with the Cowboys, Dallas ranks 10th against fantasy quarterbacks this season. Goff is projected to score 18.6 points per game, which ranks fourth behind Patrick Mahomes (23.3), Drew Brees (21.4) and Andrew Luck (20.7). Defenses like Chicago and Atlanta (Divisional round playoffs last year) with athletic linebackers have given Sean McVay’s offense issues in the past and Dallas has one of the most athletic linebacking corps in the league. While the Rams employed one of the most dangerous offenses in the league again this year, we would temper our expectations for Goff on Saturday night when the Rams host the Cowboys. He is our QB4 for the Divisional Round.
Week 17 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Jared Goff completed 19-of-24 passes for 216 yards and a touchdown while also adding six yards and a second touchdown on two carries in the Rams’ Week 16 win over the Cardinals. Without Todd Gurley, who missed the game due to injury, Goff got off to a rocky start when he fumbled on the team’s opening drive. After that, he settled in and produced his best game in the past three weeks. With the Rams needing another win to lock up a first-round bye, Goff is a low-end QB1 on Sunday when L.A. hosts the 49ers. He ranks as our QB9 for Week 17.
Week 16 at Arizona Cardinals
Jared Goff completed 35-of-53 passes for 339 yards with two touchdowns and a fumble/interception in the Rams’ Week 15 loss to the Eagles. His numbers were good from a fantasy perspective, but the third-year quarterback did not play well for a third-straight week. Up until the fourth quarter with the Rams in catch-up mode, Goff struggled to move the offense against a banged-up Philadelphia secondary. He tends to crumble in the face of pressure and despite facing an Arizona defense that just allowed 40 points to the Falcons in Week 15 (well, 34…Josh Rosen threw a pick-six in the loss), Goff isn’t recommended for Week 16. The Cardinals rank ninth against fantasy quarterbacks in 2018 and with Goff struggling in his past three games, we would avoid him this weekend. Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Mitch Trubisky are ranked higher if you’re looking for a QB for your fantasy playoffs.
Week 15 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Jared Goff completed just 20-of-44 passes for 180 yards and four interceptions in the Rams’ Week 14 loss to the Bears. Goff wasn’t great in Detroit two weeks ago and he was downright awful against the Bears on Sunday night. The California kid looked like he wanted nothing to do with the cold weather in Chicago but fortunately for him and his fantasy owners, he should rebound this weekend when the Rams host the banged-up Eagles. Philadelphia ranks No. 20 against fantasy quarterbacks this season and just surrendered 455 yards and three touchdowns to Dak Prescott last week in Dallas. Ranked as our QB2, start Goff with confidence in Week 15.
Week 14 at Chicago Bears
Jared Goff completed 17-of-33 passes for 207 yards with a touchdown and an interception while losing two yards on two rushing attempts in Week 13’s win over the Lions. He also lost a fumble and struggled for most of the game after roasting the Chiefs in Week 11. Perhaps the bye week hampered Goff and the Rams offense but they have no time to dwell on the performance with the Bears on deck. There are a couple of things working against L.A. in Week 14. For starters, Chicago’s defense is having an excellent season and has the athletic defenders to slow down L.A.’s offense. Secondly, the game will be played in the elements on Sunday night where it’s likely to be freezing cold in Chicago. Lastly, the Rams will be traveling for a second straight week and could struggle against a motivated Bears team that has its sights on winning the NFC North. Ranked as QB10 for Week 14, view Goff as a low-end QB1 for Sunday night. Jameis Winston and Mitch Trubisky are better options, although we won’t blame you for riding Goff given how great he has been this season.
Week 13 at Detroit Lions
Jared Goff completed 31-of-49 passes for 413 yards and four touchdowns in the Rams’ Week 11 win over the Chiefs. Not having injured slot receiver Cooper Kupp didn’t slow down Goff, who also scored a fifth touchdown on the ground from seven yards out. His four passing scores went to Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds and two to tight end Gerald Everett. Believe it or not, Goff left some fantasy production on the field, missing a couple of wide-open receivers. Coming off their bye, the Rams travel to Detroit on Sunday to play a Lions team that ranks as the No. 19 defense against fantasy quarterbacks this season. Ranked as our QB3 for Week 13, keep Goff in your lineup.
Week 11 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Jared Goff completed 28-of-39 passes for 318 yards and two touchdowns in the Rams’ 36-31 win over the Seahawks in Week 10. Goff lost Cooper Kupp to a torn ACL so that will be an interesting development to watch moving forward as Josh Reynolds takes over in the slot. That said, the Rams host the Chiefs on Monday night with the betting total sitting in the mid-60s so there’s no reason to sit Goff against the No. 27 fantasy defense versus quarterbacks. Ranked as our QB4 for Week 11, start Goff on Monday night.
Week 10 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Jared Goff completed 28-of-40 passes for 391 yards with three touchdowns and an interception in the Rams’ loss to the Saints in Week 9. The game lived up to its high-scoring hype, as Goff and Drew Brees put on a show. Outside of the interception, which was more of an athletic play by Alex Anzalone than a poor throw, Goff was exceptional. The Rams stalled on their final two offensive plays and the Saints capitalized to win the game, but this matchup may have been a preview of this year’s NFC Championship Game. Goff has a tough matchup against the Seahawks, who rank fourth against fantasy quarterbacks this season, but he remains a QB1. He completed 23-of-32 passes for 321 yards with one touchdown and two picks versus Seattle in Week 5. He ranks as our QB4 for Week 10.
Week 9 at New Orleans Saints
Jared Goff completed 19-of-35 passes for 295 yards and three touchdowns in the Rams’ Week 8 win over the Packers. Green Bay did a nice job harassing Goff into his errant throws in the first half, but the Rams offense came alive after the break. L.A. travels to New Orleans on Sunday to take on the Saints and the betting total for this game is sitting at 59.5. That’s a massive total for an NFL game, which indicates that oddsmakers are expecting a shootout at the Superdome. Ranked as our QB5 for Week 9, Goff makes for a solid QB1 when he takes on a New Orleans defense that ranks No. 31 against fantasy quarterbacks this season.
