Week 10 at Steelers
Jared Goff has been one of the worst quarterbacks in fantasy football, with four finishes of QB27 or lower in his last six games. He's only averaging 249.4 passing yards per game at 6.5 yards per attempt with eight touchdowns and six interceptions. The only way I'd consider starting him is if I was desperate in a SuperFlex league.
Goff goes up against a Steelers defense that ranks 14th in aFPA to quarterbacks, making this a tough matchup. It's hard to see Goff putting together a strong performance in a poor game environment with a 42.5-point total. The only path for that to happen is if the Lions are forced to play catch-up, but we saw them fall flat in that situation against the Eagles in Week 8.
Week 8 vs. Eagles
Goff played a bit better against the Rams, completing 22-of-36 passes for 268 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions, but there's still no way we can trust him as a fantasy option aside from SuperFlex leagues. He's currently QB28 in fantasy points per game. Goff would need to rack up production in garbage time in order to be fantasy-relevant.
He goes up against an Eagles defense that ranks 5th in aFPA to quarterbacks, so this is a tough matchup. The Eagles are a run-funnel defense, so there's a better chance that the Lions try to attack this team on the ground, resulting in limited volume for Goff. I wouldn't even start Goff as a DFS tournament punt play.
Week 7 at Rams
Jared Goff is only worth starting if you're desperate in SuperFlex leagues, as he's been one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Goff turned in another dud against the Bengals, throwing for only 202 yards (4.8 yards per attempt) with one interception. The Lions' offense hasn't scored 20+ points since Week 1. Head coach Dan Campbell publicly called out Goff for his performance.
This is a tough matchup against a Rams defense that ranks eighth in aFPA to quarterbacks. You're likely going to see Goff under duress while facing pressure from Aaron Donald and company, resulting in several dump-offs and intermediate passes. If Goff keeps playing this poorly, we could see him benched at some point.
Week 6 vs. Bengals
Goff has finished as QB33, QB22, and QB30 in the last three weeks, demonstrating how low his weekly floor can be. This has been against the Ravens, Bears, and Vikings, so it's not like he was facing a slew of tough matchups. The Lions' offense is struggling right now, averaging only 16.75 points in their last four games.
Goff goes up against a Bengals defense that ranks 26th in aFPA to quarterbacks, so perhaps this can be an opportunity for him to break out of this slump. Goff will need tight end T.J. Hockenson to be healthy for this game, as the third-year tight end is currently banged up with a knee injury. It's hard to count on Goff as anything more than a desperation play in SuperFlex formats.
Week 5 at Vikings
Goff has had a quietly solid fantasy season, ranking as QB3, QB15, QB30, and QB22 so far this season, establishing himself as a potential streamer in the right matchup. He's averaging 40.25 pass attempts, giving him enough volume to make an impact. We can project this to continue with the Lions likely to continue to be forced into pass-heavy game scripts while playing from behind.
Goff goes up against a Vikings defense that ranks 12th in aFPA this season. This defense is allowing 8.7 yards per attempt (29th). The game has a 49-point total, so this is a projected shootout. This is the spot where Goff is a viable streamer. He should be able to provide solid production against an exploitable Vikings defense.
Week 4 at Bears
Goff continues to see volume, averaging 41 pass attempts per game, which allows him to be a sneaky streamer with the Lions often playing from behind. Goff is currently the QB14 on the season, which is surprising considering how late he was going in drafts. He's playing behind a strong offensive line which is helping him maintain some fantasy value as a weekly streamer.
Goff goes up against a Bears defense that ranks 13th in aFPA this season, making this a tough matchup, especially since it's on the road. This game also has a 42-point total, which is tied for the lowest on the slate. This makes it difficult to rely on Goff as a streamer, especially since quarterback is such a deep position. I'd look elsewhere if I was desperate at quarterback this week.
Week 3 vs. Ravens
Goff has gotten off to a surprising start this season and it's mostly due to the volume, as the veteran quarterback has averaged 46.5 pass attempts per game this season. This has allowed Goff to finish as QB3 and QB15 in the first two weeks. We can likely expect this high pass rate to continue throughout the season because the Lions will be playing from behind often as one of the worst teams in football. Goff will need to air it out to keep up with his porous defense.
Goff takes on the Ravens this week, a defense that has struggled against the pass so far, allowing 8.94 yards per attempt, which ranks 25th in the NFL. While one of the games was against Patrick Mahomes, they did allow 435 yards to Derek Carr. The Lions are going to have a tough time stopping this Ravens offense, so we're likely going to see Goff air it out once again. This puts him in play as a potential streamer if you're playing in a deeper format.
Week 2 at Packers
Goff was gifted with the perfect game-script in Week 1 against the 49ers, forced into catch-up mode with his team down multiple touchdowns. Goff performed well from a fantasy standpoint, completing 38-of-57 passes for 338 yards with three touchdowns and one interception, finishing as QB3 for the week. There's a good chance that we can see a similar game script with the Lions as 11-point road underdogs to the rival Packers.
The Packers are coming off an embarrassing 38-3 road loss to the Saints, so you can bet that they'll come out firing here on Monday Night in a smash spot for a bounce-back. This defense ranked 6th in aFPA allowed to quarterbacks last season, so there's a good chance that they put forth a better effort than what we saw last week, where they gave up five touchdowns on only 20 pass attempts to Jameis Winston. It's tough to recommend Goff as a streamer here because this defense is better than it showed last week.
Week 1 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Jared Goff is in a really tough spot in his Lions’ debut against a 49ers defense that allowed 6.57 yards per attempt (3rd) along with the fourth-fewest aFPA to quarterbacks last season. While the team lost defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, they get back elite pass-rusher Nick Bosa and should be among the top units in the NFL. Goff has one of the worst wide receiving corps in the NFL with veteran Tyrell Williams and rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown, so it’s going to be tough against this defense.
The Lions are 7.5-point underdogs with an 18.75-point implied team total, making Goff an easy avoid this week. He’s only startable in 2QB or SuperFlex formats, where you’re just looking to use another starting quarterback. Goff will likely be forced to check it down to tight end T.J. Hockenson as well as running backs D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams in order to move the ball against this stingy defense. That means few big plays and scoring opportunities. Goff is one of the worst fantasy quarterbacks this week.
Fantasy Upside
Jared Goff completed 370-of-552 (67%) passes for 3,952 yards (7.2 Y/A), 20 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions as well as 99 rushing yards on and four touchdowns on 99 attempts (1.9 Y/A). While he’ll no longer be in a quarterback-friendly scheme with Sean McVay, Goff now joins a Lions team with a porous defense. It’s likely that Goff will have to air it out in order to keep pace, especially since the Lions project to be playing from behind often as one of the worst teams in the NFL. Goff finished as QB22 in fantasy points per game last season, but this projected uptick in volume could help him ascend to the Top-18. We also have to consider that Goff will be playing behind one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. The Lions added blue-chip tackle prospect Penei Sewell in the first round to pair with tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow. This could help create a consistently clean pocket for Goff. Having said that, this is a quarterback with a narrow range of outcomes with limited upside due to his uninspiring supporting cast and inferior offensive scheme.
Fantasy Downside
While tight end T.J. Hockenson and running back D’Andre Swift are certified studs on upward trajectories, the wide receiver room consists of journeymen Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman as well as fourth-round rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Lions did not do enough to address the losses of free agent wide receivers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. It’s going to be difficult for this team to make big plays downfield, which makes it likely that we could see Goff become a checkdown machine, peppering targets towards Hockenson and Swift. At the same time, the high volume should allow Goff to come relatively close to his current ADP. This isn’t a player who is at risk of losing his starting role, as the team’s backup quarterback is David Blough.
2021 Bottom Line
Goff is currently being drafted as QB31 (208.6 ADP) in Underdog fantasy leagues, which makes him a solid value at this price. While the Lions' offense will be inefficient, there will likely be enough passing volume for Goff to outperform his draft cost. At the same time, this isn’t a quarterback with a high ceiling. Goff is strictly a floor pick to help balance your roster, working well if you take a shot on an upside rookie quarterback who might not start until later in the season, such as Justin Fields and Trey Lance.
