Week 11 vs Chicago Bears
Jared Goff and the Rams returned from their Week 9 bye to face the Steelers and struggled against an ascending Pittsburgh defense. Goff threw for 243 yards along with no touchdowns and two interceptions and finished the week as the fantasy QB26 with 3.7 fantasy points. Goff gets no respite, as he now faces a Bears defense in Week 11 which owns the ninth-best aFPA to quarterbacks.
Goff has ranked outside of the top 24 quarterbacks for two of the past four weeks against the 49ers and Steelers, and his two other starts resulted in QB1 finishes but were against the Bengals and Falcons, who are both bottom-six in aFPA to quarterbacks. With Brandin Cooks already listed as out for this game, Goff will have a hard time returning anything more than mid-range QB2 value against the Bears.
Week 10 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Jared Goff took advantage of a Week 8 matchup with the Bengals, throwing for 372 yards and two touchdowns, making him the week's QB8. Goff entered the Rams' Week 9 bye as the QB14, with the team averaging 287.3 passing yards per game, the fifth-highest mark. Goff's fantasy value has been extremely matchup-dependent, as his four QB1 performances have all come against defenses in the bottom half of Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks.
Goff faces off against a Pittsburgh defense with an aFPA to quarterbacks of 13.1. Only the Patriots, 49ers, and Broncos have allowed a lower mark to the position. Making matters worse, wide receiver Brandin Cooks has already been ruled out for Week 10. While Josh Reynolds is a very capable next-man-up, Cooks owned the highest aDOT among Rams receivers, and the defensive attention he commands will be notably absent. The Rams have an excellent defense of their own, limiting the overall scoring upside for this game. Goff projects as a mid-range QB2 for Week 10, so there should be better starting options at your disposal.
Week 8 vs Cincinnati Bengals
Jared Goff bounced back from a poor Week 6 performance with a strong performance in Week 7 against the Falcons. Goff's 268 passing yards in addition to two passing touchdowns plus a rushing touchdown made him fantasy's QB5 for the week. He spread the ball around very effectively, and four different receivers finished with 50 or more receiving yards.
Goff draws a attractive matchup in Week 8 against a Bengals defense that's allowed 20.0 aFPA to quarterbacks, sixth-most in the league. Three of the past four quarterbacks against the Bengals have finished the week as a fantasy QB1, and the fourth was Gardner Minshew in Week 7 who just barely missed the QB1 mark as the QB13. Goff projects as a top-five fantasy option at the position this week.
Week 7 at Atlanta Falcons
Jared Goff had a terrible Week 6 fantasy performance against San Francisco's excellent pass defense, finishing the week with the fewest fantasy points of any quarterback that was on the field, including Saints backup quarterback/gadget player Taysom Hill. This game pushed him down the QB19 overall, but Goff has also put together a few QB1 performances this season in Weeks 2, 4, and 5.
While it may be difficult to cleanse Goff's Week 6 performance from your brain, it's in your best interest to do so. The Rams visit the Falcons in Week 7, and they will certainly welcome facing a defense whose performance falls on the opposite end of the efficiency spectrum from the 49ers. Atlanta has allowed 23.4 aFPA to opposing quarterbacks, second-most in the NFL, while they've been decent at limiting backs, allowing 24.6 aFPA, 17th-fewest, which should push the Rams toward a pass-heavy attack. With his entire crew of wide receivers healthy, and tight end Gerald Everett flashing upside, Goff should be a safe QB1 for Week 7.
Week 6 vs San Francisco 49ers
Despite a Rams loss to the Seahawks in Week 5, Jared Goff was the 12th-highest scoring fantasy QB for the week, throwing for 395 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Goff is now the QB14 overall, but his early-season performance behind a struggling offensive line is notable. Goff was the fantasy QB4 through Week 5 in 2018 and had thrown 12 touchdowns against six interceptions compared to seven touchdowns against seven interceptions so far in 2019. It's too early to remove him from QB1 consideration quite yet, and the offensive line is bound to improve based on past performance, but there's good reason for concern for his season-long fantasy prospects.
The Rams face the undefeated 49ers in Week 6, and it is no reprieve for the Rams offense. San Francisco has allowed just 11.1 aFPA to quarterbacks, making them the fifth-most stingy defenses against opposing signal-callers. They have yet to allow an opposing offense to score more than two total touchdowns. and they're coming off of a game in which they shut down Cleveland's passing offense completely. If Jared Goff is on your roster, you're probably starting him, but a low-end QB1 finish seems likely to be his absolute ceiling for Week 6.
Week 5 at Seattle Seahawks
Jared Goff had an enticing matchup against the Buccaneers in Week 4, and while he was the QB8 overall for the week, his performance was more of a result of sheer volume than efficiency. Goff had an absurd 68 passing attempts, threw for 517 yards and two touchdowns to go along with three interceptions. Fantasy points don't care where they come from, of course, but fantasy managers should when looking to assess future performance.
The Rams go from facing a Buccaneers defense in Week 4 allowing 21.7 aFPA to quarterbacks, fourth-highest, to a Seahawks defense in Week 5 allowing 19.3 aFPA to the position, ninth-highest. It's not a matchup to avoid, but expecting a repeat of Week 4's passing volume is a fool's errand. Goff is the QB17 through four games, which seems appropriate as he's hard to trust as more than a high-end QB2.
Week 4 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jared Goff has experienced his share of difficulty in 2019, and he currently stands at the fantasy QB19. I expected Goff to finish as a low-end QB1 last week against the Browns, and he finished as the QB12 overall. Goff has been one of the most frequently-pressured quarterbacks in the NFL through three weeks, despite matchups in Weeks 2 and 3 against two of the six worst defenses in terms of Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks.
Goff now faces a Buccanneers team that has an aFPA against quarterbacks of 20.5, and only seven teams are averaging more. It's an extremely inviting matchup, as both of the last two quarterbacks to face the Bucs defense have easily cleared 300 passing yards. Tampa Bay has also been extremely strong against the run, and their -4.2 aFPA to running backs is far and away the best in the NFL. The Rams have an implied team total of 30.5 points against Tampa Bay, tied with the Chargers for the highest of Week 4. Jared Goff and the Rams should be able to take advantage of this matchup, and Goff should be a safe QB1.
Week 3 at Cleveland Browns
Jared Goff improved on his Week 1 numbers, finishing Week 2 as the fantasy QB8. Despite winning both of the Rams' first two games, Goff has yet to throw more than one touchdown in a game or cross 300 yards passing. He's also gone from one of the third-least pressured quarterbacks in 2018 to the fourth-most pressured through two games this season, and while it is a small sample size, it does raise concerns about offensive line changes affecting his fantasy output.
Goff travels to Cleveland in Week 3 to face a talented Browns defense, and he was significantly less productive in away games than at home in 2018, with only 10 of his 32 touchdowns coming on the road. Cleveland allowed the fourth-fewest Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) to opposing quarterbacks in 2018, and added significant offseason defensive talent. Goff looks like a low-end QB1 for Week 3.
Week 2 vs. New Orleans Saints
Jared Goff had a disappointing Week 1 for his fantasy owners, finishing the week as the QB27. He completed only 23 of his 39 attempts for a 59% completion percentage that was seventh-lowest at the position. Carolina's secondary may have taken a step forward, or the result may just have been Week 1 variance.
Goff matches up with the Saints in Week 2, and Vegas projects this as the highest-scoring game Sunday's slate. Deshaun Watson just finished as the #3 fantasy QB against this defense, and 4for4 projects Goff to bounce back with a performance inside the top six quarterbacks for the week.
Week 1 at Carolina Panthers
Jared Goff finished the 2018 season as fantasy's QB7, but he was drafted as the QB10 by offseason ADP. Goff opens the 2019 season with all of his wide receivers healthy and available, and despite losing center John Sullivan and left guard Roger Saffold, he's poised to improve upon his 19.0 fantasy points per game average from 2018.
The Rams match up with the Carolina Panthers in Week 1, who project to have a league-average defense overall, with one of the weaker secondaries among the 32 teams. If Goff is on your redraft roster, you probably drafted him as your QB1, and this is not a matchup that screams "stay away". John Paulson's projected him just outside the top 12 as the QB13.
