Scott Smith’s Top Plays for UFC 297: Strickland vs Du Plessis
We follow up a successful start to the year with a UFC trip to Canada for a fight card featuring a pair of titles on the line. Sean Strickland takes on Dricus Du Plessis in a much-anticipated fight for the middleweight title. Raquel Pennington and Mayra Bueno Silva look to win the women’s bantamweight title that has been dominated by Amanda Nunes for so long. The rest of the card features a number of Canadian fighters looking to showcase their skills. Let’s take a look at the best plays for UFC 297.
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UFC 297 Best Bets
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Gillian Robertson to win by (t)ko of submission (+100, DraftKings)
Fight Breakdown: Gillian Robertson vs Polyana Viana
Plyana Viana is a finish-or-bust fighter. Viana is a grappler with dangerous submissions who struggles to force fights to the ground. She will often jump guard if she needs to and has a tendency to be overly comfortable fighting off her back. If things aren’t going her way, Viana often fades and does not have sustainable volume or output over three rounds.
Gillian Robertson has the most finishes in women’s flyweight history. The credentials of her grappling have set that record. Robertson takes pride in her jiu-jitsu, and it's often her easiest path to victory. Robertson has trouble against more physical strikers that can defend takedowns. Both of these women will be similar in size, and the grappling exchanges should be where the more technical action happens in this fight. I edge Robertson in the grappling exchanges and think she should be able to advance her position to set up a submission or stabilize top control and do some damage on the ground with strikes. I also think she will have the better conditioning over the course of 15 minutes.
Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1 unit.
Brad Katona to win (-205 DraftKings)
Fight Breakdown: Brad Katona vs Garret Armfield
Garrett Armfield is 1-1 in the UFC with a submission loss to David Onama and a win over Toshiomi Kazama. His loss to Onama is nothing to be ashamed of, but one thing that was exposed in that fight was the grappling of Armfield. The win over Kazama doesn’t hold much weight as Kazama is 0-2 in the UFC with a suspect record on the Asian regional circuit. Kazama will likely be cut soon, proving that he isn’t UFC caliber. Armfield has shown to be a technical striker with decent power. He is at his best when coming forward and working behind his jab. If he is to keep this fight competitive, he will have to do so with his striking.
Brad Katona will look to keep the momentum rolling after winning the Ultimate Fighter for the second time. During that time, Katona has shown a bit of an evolution in his game. He has shown to be a more durable, higher-output fighter. In his most recent fights, he has shown the ability to dig deep and do what needs to be done to win. The striking in this fight figures to be competitive, but Katona will have the wrestling and cardio advantages. Katona figures to have more paths to victory as the more well-rounded and experienced fighter. While I expect Katona to win this fight via decision, I think the grappling skillset is far enough in Katona’s advantage that he could possibly get a submission as well. My projections give Katona a 68% chance of winning this fight, which makes anything under -225 a value.
Risk: 2.05 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Playable down to -225)
DFS Cash Game Plays For UFC Vegas 84
Our strategy for MMA DFS cash games revolves around creating lineups that are projected to get at least four wins on fight night. Targeting fighters in 5-round fights give us more scoring upside, and both fighters are usually featured in our lineups. Scoring favors grappling-heavy fighters with takedowns and control time being heavily targeted in our lineup construction. Finish rate and stylistic matchups are other considerations when searching for a winning combination on fight night.
Premium Plays ($9000 and Above)
Mike Mallott $9300 - Mallott is the face of Canadian MMA, and he gets a showcase fight here against a veteran top-15 gatekeeper in the form of Neil Magny. Mallott sports the second-highest finish rate on this card and bested 100 DFS points in all three of his UFC fights. Magny is long and can grapple, but Mallott will be more dangerous and a threat to finish here.
Gillian Robertson $9100 - As noted above, Robertson has trouble with bigger girls that can strike and defend takedowns. That isn’t the case here in this fight. Viana has eight submission wins, but those are against low-level women’s fighters. Robertson is a veteran in the game and will be the better grappler. With Viana’s propensity to be comfortable fighting off her back, I expect Robertson to win this fight on the ground, whether it be by submission or ground and pound.
Midrange Plays ($8000 - $8900)
Brad Katona $8800 - Brad Katona has had a bit of a renaissance in his latest run. He performed great on TUF31 and has shown an urgency to fight with higher output. In his last fight against Cody Gibson, he showed the grit and durability to dig deep. My model gives Katona the highest projection to win on this card. His output over three rounds, along with his upside to score and possibly finish with his grappling, should give him a solid scoring outcome as a safer play in this price range.
Movsar Evloev $8700 - Evloev will have a big step up in competition here against Arnold Allen. Evloev is 7-0 in the UFC but has yet to finish a fight. His bread and butter is his wrestling, and he consistently scores high in DFS because of it. One of his issues is his control. He often allows his opponents to scramble back to standing, which resets the process where he again takes down his opponents. Over his last four fights, Evloev has averaged 119 DFS points. He will have a tougher test here against Arnold but must be considered for lineups.
Value Plays ($7900 and Below)
Jimmy Flick $7900 - This is a matchup of two lowlevel UFC fighters with the loser probably getting a pink slip. Flick has flirted with retirement and personal issues but looks to have put those issues behind him for the time being. He is coming into this fight in the best shape of his career against a fighter that is vulnerable to submissions. Flick is the underdog but this is a winnable matchup against Gordon, who missed weight. Flick likely won’t be highly owned and there is some danger to owning him as we have seen him simply be overwhelmed in fights. This week however he will be live for a submission win albeit with some danger attached. He is a boom or bust play as the winners of fights Flick and Gordon have been in usually end up in optimal lineups.
Sam Patterson $7800 - Patterson got starched in his UFC debut at 155-pounds. He didn’t show much in that early first round knockout and is now moving up to welterweight. This is more a bet against his opponent in Yohan Lainesse that has a ton of holes in his game. Patterson is the more well rounded technical striker, the better grappler and has shown better conditioning. Patterson still needs to answer questions as to who he is as a fighter at the UFC level, but we know what Lainesse is at this level. My model likes him to win this fight 50.73% of the time against Lainesse.
Raquel Pennington $7600 - Experience, longevity, and conditioning are all in the favor of Pennington in this fight. Silva will be the bigger and more dangerous fighter, and a win over a common opponent in Holly Holm will favor Silva, but my model projects Pennington to win this fight 52% of the time. That is the best projection for any of the viable underdogs on this card. You can play her as a punt play or pair her with Silva as a 5-round fight that projects to go deep.
Sean Woodson $7200 - Most analysts are on Jourdain, and I do favor him for the win. Woodson, however, has a huge size and reach advantage that will cause problems in this fight. Not only does Woodson use his length well for striking purposes, but he also makes it tough to get leverage on takedown attempts. Woodson has the upside at a low price to score a finish with his striking, but this is also a fight that I project to go deep, giving Woodson a decent floor at this price point that will allow owners to get more premium plays into lineups. Jourdain will have to figure out a way to get around the length of Woodson, and that fact is being undervalued here.
Swing Fight
Sean Strickland $8200 vs Dricus Du Plessis $8000 - There are many arguments to be had for both guys winning this fight. Du Plessis has an 86% finish rate and is powerful and durable. His fight against Robert Whitaker put to rest any doubts people had about Du Plessis being a legit title contender. Strickland has shown lapses in judgment, as was the case in the way he decided to strike with Poatan. I think this fight does not make it to the judges, which makes having the winning side of this fight a great piece to have in lineups. Du Plessis has the power advantage and will have a bit higher upside for the early finish. Strickland has the cardio and output advantage and will be a better bet to get a finish late. The answer comes down to conditioning. We haven’t seen Dricus go as deep in fights as Strickland, but we have also never seen Strickland’s cardio tested with heavy grappling. I lean toward Strickland winning the fight with his conditioning, but my model projects Du Plessis to win and gets the advantage due to his finishing prowess.
Cash Game Lineup:
Brad Katona $8800
Movsar Evloev $8700
Mayra BuenaSilva $8600
Sean Strickland $8200
Sam Patterson $7800
Raquel Pennington $7600
UFC 297 Projections and Fight Picks
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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