Should the Rodgers holdout last into the regular season, Jordan Love would take over an offense with a top-10 offensive line by Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate. This is a huge boon to a quarterback prospect who, per PFF College, had an 89th percentile rate of “big-time throws” – a quantification of highlight-reel plays. When his Utah State receivers got separation, Love was one of the best passers in the FBS; with wide receiver Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, this ability should play up well. His huge size, arm strength, and general athleticism (64th percentile SPARQ-x score) suggest a high fantasy potential if he has developed properly since becoming a first-round draftee last year.
Love has yet to play a down against an NFL defense – even in the preseason – thanks to Rodgers’ stranglehold on the Packers’ starting job and the COVID-19 pandemic throwing the 2020 season into turmoil. When he last saw game action, he was playing against Group of Five competition and still made questionable decisions with tight-window throws and passes under duress. Love’s total collegiate resumé suggests his 2018 breakout season may have been more fluke than “step forward”; he completed just 61% of his college passes and averaged under 8.0 yards per attempt. Love struggled in offseason activities in his rookie year and appears to be struggling with accuracy and consistency again.
Love is worthwhile as a fantasy QB2 flier if drafting with a “Late-Round QB” strategy or in deeper leagues, but he shouldn’t be relied on for any fantasy production in 2021. If Rodgers suits up for the season, Love becomes nothing more than medium-upside, low-floor waiver fodder. If Rodgers holds out or retires, Love becomes an intriguing matchup option at best.