Since breaking out as a star in 2016, wide receiver Davante Adams has put up three half-PPR fantasy WR1 seasons in five years and been no lower than the WR24 despite playing only 12 games that year. He has averaged 16.1 fantasy points per game in that span – the second-most among the 116 pass-catchers to see 200 or more targets since 2016. No other high-volume wide receiver has earned a target on their routes run more frequently over the last three years than Adams, and his 2020 masterclass was the pinnacle of his fantasy dominance. Among all skill position players with 50 or more targets last season, Adams was targeted the second-most on his routes and posted 0.70 fantasy points per route run – essentially 33% more fantasy-efficient than the next best player.
Adams holds a good-not-great adjusted catch rate (percent of catchable targets caught), which ranks 15th among 39 players to see at least 200 targets since 2018. His game's only other mortal facets are a middling 21st average depth of target (aDOT) and 11th-lowest juke rate (missed and broken tackles per reception) among these same receivers. Perhaps Adams’ team-leading 27.8% team target share since 2018 drops some later in the season if the team is unable to reach an extension with their star wideout and wants to get the rest of the pass-catching corps some experience.
2021 Bottom Line
Adams is the axis around which the Packers’ passing game revolves, and thus is all but locked-in to post his fourth fantasy WR1 campaign in six years in 2021. With star passer Aaron Rodgers back in the fold, expect the NFL’s top passing-game duo to light the league on fire yet again. Our models have Adams as the presumptive WR1, just ahead of Tyreek Hill. He is currently being drafted just behind Hill, as the WR2 and the 12th overall player by ADP. Adams is the perfect target for a fantasy manager stuck on the turn who is looking to pair an elite RB and WR, or as the cornerstone of a Zero RB draft strategy.