2021 Fantasy Upside
It's only taken two seasons for A.J. Brown to establish himself as one of the premier wide receivers in the NFL. Brown suffered an injury scare early last season but fought through his knee issues to finish seventh amongst wide receivers in fantasy points per game (17.2). The beautiful thing about Brown's fantasy profile is that he does not rely on volume to produce. Brown finished 30th in targets and 27th in receptions amongst wide receivers last season but managed to finish second in yards per route run (2.76), fifth in touchdowns (11), and 10th in yards per target (10.1). While Brown may never see the massive target numbers of other top-tier wideouts, few players in the league do more with the touches they do receive than the Ole Miss product. Despite Brown's emergence in recent seasons, it will be difficult for defenses to focus on him with the offseason addition of fellow alpha receiver Julio Jones in Tennessee. While the Jones addition caps Brown's target ceiling to some extent, that could be offset by more favorable coverages due to Jones's presence on the other side of the formation. Even with Jones in the mix, the Titans' target distribution projects to be narrow and there should be plenty of opportunity for both Brown and Jones to put up big numbers.
2021 Fantasy Downside
Prior to the Jones addition, Brown had a legitimate argument to be ranked as the top overall wideout in fantasy due to massive volume projections caused by a complete lack of target competition. Having to compete with Jones puts a damper on those projections, meaning Brown's ceiling is necessarily lower with another top-end wideout in the mix competing for Tannehill's targets. Brown also had surgery on both knees in January to address the issues that limited him last season. Current reports expect him to be ready for training camp but his health will be worth monitoring in the coming weeks.
2021 Bottom Line
While the focus in Tennessee has been on the addition of Jones, the Titans also lost Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith in free agency. The narrative surrounding the Jones trade has been that it will hurt Brown's ceiling, but Brown was already poised to have a dominant target share before the trade and should still get plenty of attention from Tannehill in what has been an efficient passing offense. Brown's elite downfield production and projected target share still add up to WR1 numbers even if he is no longer being considered for the title of top receiver in fantasy.
