Do Defenses Repeat Fantasy Football Performances?

We often turn to strength of schedule as a tool in determining a player’s potential for success over the course of a season. In this study, we retreated to a dark corner of the fantasy library and compiled defensive data from 2015 to 2025, in an effort to see if fantasy points allowed to each position correlated strongly, somewhat, or not at all from one year to the next, hoping for a sticky stat or two to sink our teeth into.

Below is a position-by-position analysis of the best and worst defenses in terms of half-PPR fantasy points allowed last season, and what it all potentially means for 2026.

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Fantasy Points Allowed to Quarterbacks

When examining year-to-year fantasy points allowed across all positions, points allowed to quarterbacks had the highest correlation coefficient of 0.27, which is still on the lower end of moderate. The top-five defenses against signal-callers repeated their performance 30% of the time the next season, with an average finish of DEF13.

On the other side of the spectrum, the defenses in the bottom five versus quarterbacks ended up there again 20% of the time, with an average ending rank of DEF22.

Bottom 5 Defenses vs. QB, 2025

Repeat offenders after the basement spot in 2024, the Cowboys struggled across the board against signal callers in 2025, and it wasn't even close. Dallas allowed the most passing yards (4,521) and the most passing touchdowns (35), they surrendered the highest number of rushing touchdowns to QBs (8), and the third most rushing yards to the position (398).

The Jets were tied with Dallas for the most passing touchdowns yielded, which is not ideal, but somehow they failed to intercept the QB even once throughout the entire 2025 season. Not one pick. The Commanders, Bucs, and Titans were all pretty balanced in their defensive ineptness last season across both passing and rushing metrics.

2026 Outlook: The Commanders are likely to end up here again this season despite some efforts to improve, with the addition of Odafe Oweh and K'Lavon Chaisson as EDGE rushers, as well as their seventh overall pick, Ohio State's Sonny Styles, who will replace Bobby Wagner at LB. Questions remain, particularly at cornerback. The Jets are also likely to appear here at this time next year, but they did make some changes to help stifle enemy QBs, with a pair of new edge-rushers in free agent acquisition Joseph Ossai and No. 2 overall pick David Bailey. Some new tackles are also in the mix with David Onyemata and T'Vondre Sweat now in New York. Right now, it's not looking fantastic for any of these five defenses to climb much farther in 2026.

Top 5 Defenses vs. QB, 2025

The Vikings' defense went from fifth in 2024 to first against the QB position last season, yielding the second fewest passing yards and touchdowns, along with being tied for first in the lowest rushing touchdown total to signal callers, at just one. LA was in the top 10 in 2024 but climbed up to second last year, thanks to the third-most interceptions, along with the third-fewest passing touchdowns and the fourth-lowest passing yards surrendered.

The Bills shut down the pass last year, with just 170 air yards per contest, the lowest in the NFL, while the Texans and Browns were fairly well balanced, ranking in the top 10 in nearly all defensive categories versus signal callers.

2026 Outlook: The Texans, Vikings, and Chargers could end up near the top again in 2026 and are all top 10 fantasy defenses in 4for4's early ranks. The Browns have been dominant for the last two seasons under play-caller Jim Schwartz, who is now gone, so they may take a step or two back, but still have the talent to be a top 10 defense.

Fantasy Points Allowed to Running Backs

The running back position proved the second-highest year-to-year correlation in terms of FPA at .22, which makes sense as the good teams tend to remain that way, and game script is extremely important for running back production. The five defenses that finished the best against rushers repeated 20% of the time with an average ending rank of DEF12.

For the poor defenses, the five worst units found themselves in the bottom 32% of the time in the following season, with an average rank of DEF19.

Bottom 5 Defenses vs. RB, 2025

We have a fresh top five worst against the run in 2025, as only the Giants and Cardinals were close, ranking 25th and 24th, respectively, in 2024 versus RBs. The Jets were porous in the touchdown department, yielding the second-most rushing end zone trips (17) and a whopping 11 scores via the air to the position, which was the most in the NFL. The Bengals, Cardinals, Commanders, and Giants were all pretty balanced in their weakness against the rush, coming in the bottom 10 in yards and touchdowns, with Cincinnati and Arizona also coming in the lower 10 of NFL defenses at protecting the receiving side of RB work.

2026 Outlook: Sadly, we could be looking at a very similar bottom five this time next season, as all five units have holes and didn't do too much to fix their problematic protection against the run this offseason. The Jets, Bengals, Cardinals, Commanders, and Giants all sit 27th or worse in 4for4's current ranks.

Top 5 Defenses vs. RB, 2025

Seattle was a powerhouse against the run last year, allowing the fewest rushing touchdowns and the third fewest rushing yards, along with being tied for yielding the third fewest receiving touchdowns to RBs in 2025. The Jags were top four in defending the run in both yards and scores, with Denver top 5 across the board, plus they surrendered the fewest receptions to opposing backs last season.

2026 Outlook: All five of these defenses should be solid again in 2026 and are projected to be drafted among the top 10 for fantasy purposes. Right now, Seattle, Denver, and Jacksonville are all ranked among the top five, with Pittsburgh and New England just outside at sixth and eighth, respectively.

Fantasy Points Allowed to Wide Receivers

This is where we start to get very little year-to-year correlation, mostly due to the volatility of the position. Of the best five defenses versus pass-catchers, 23% repeated the next season, with an average rank of DEF13. At the bottom, the five least efficient groups against the receiver were there again 23% of the time, with an end ranking of DEF19.

Bottom 5 Defenses vs. WR, 2025

It's not surprising to see three repeat offenders from this article's bottom QB section again for WRs. The Cowboys allowed the most yards and end zone trips to opposing wideouts in the NFL; the Titans were 29th and 28th in these two categories, respectively, while the Commanders allowed the sixth and eighth most yards and touchdowns to WRs. Detroit and Chicago are new to the bottom, but both struggled to contain enemy pass-catchers in 2025, landing among the bottom 10 defenses in both receiving yards and touchdowns to the WR position.

2026 Outlook: The Lions are coming off some detrimental injuries, but there is enough talent there to get out of the cellar. Chicago also has a shot, too, as they likely have settled into second-year defensive coordinator Dennis Allen's system, and their secondary is finally healthy heading into 2026.

Top 5 Defenses vs. WR, 2025

Minnesota is the only repeat from the QB section, and they ended last season in the top four in the fewest receptions, yards, and touchdowns allowed to enemy wideouts, with an overall top finish in fewest fantasy points surrendered across all positions. The Broncos and Eagles tied for the least number of touchdowns yielded to opposing WRs, with only six in all of 2025 to the position. Seattle appears again after coming in at the top versus RBs, as they allowed the second-fewest receiving yards, eighth-fewest receptions, and the ninth-fewest scores to enemy WRs.

2026 Outlook: All of these defensive units, except the Chiefs, could find themselves here at this time next year and are all ranked among the top seven at this point in the summer. Kansas City has some question marks heading into 2026, particularly in the pass rush department.

Fantasy Points Allowed to Tight Ends

We saw the lowest year-to-year correlation points allowed to tight ends (.16), most likely because facing just a few dominant tight ends can really make a team appear worse against the position, since there are so few big names in general.

Only 21% of defensive units that finished in the top five were there again the next season, with an average end ranking of DEF14. Of the five teams that were the worst at defending tight ends, 16% landed in the basement that next season, with an average finish of DEF19.

Bottom 5 Defenses vs. TE, 2025

I can only assume that no one is surprised to see the Bengals at the bottom of this list, as they were dead last against the TE in 2024 and 30th in 2023. As you can see, not only did they allow the most fantasy points to opposing TEs last season, they did it by a fairly wide margin. The Cincinnati defense surrendered the most receptions, yards, and touchdowns to the position, with the other four units ranking among the bottom six in each of those categories.

2026 Outlook: Since the correlation is so insignificant here, there’s not much point in going over any potential turnover, but if faced with a difficult draft decision and one tight end is in the same division as one of these bottom units, they could edge out the other based on the history of FPA.

Top 5 Defenses vs. TE, 2025

The Eagles and Bills reigned supreme against TEs last season, with Philly allowing the second-fewest receptions and receiving yards, and Buffalo coming in first in both those metrics. The other three are slight surprises, considering they were all in the middle of the pack in overall fantasy points allowed across all positions. Props to the Raiders, who were 30th against TEs in 2024 and moved up a whopping 26 spots last year.

2026 Outlook: The Eagles and Falcons are projected similarly for 2026, so treat them as you would for any other position you’re looking at during the draft. The Bills and Chiefs duo is ranked in the middle of the league, with the Raiders near the bottom, so adjust strategy accordingly. I know that tight end is unilaterally the least favorite position after defense and kicker, of course, but there is a nice young crop of players emerging, so give them the due diligence when it comes to research.

Bottom Line

We’re all searching for an edge in fantasy football, and using strength of schedule is something that can benefit your roster and bottom line at the end of the season. At 4for4, we created the metric schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, which takes schedule bias out and rectifies the concerns over raw fantasy points allowed discussed above, leveling the playing field to compare matchups in an apples-to-apples manner.

After looking at a decade’s worth of data, we found that some positions had a stronger correlation than others when it comes to defensive points allowed from one season to the next.

• QB showed the strongest relationship, but it still wasn’t exactly sticky.
• Real defense doesn’t always translate to fantasy points.
• Check out 4for4’s hot spot tool for tough SOS decisions, keeping all of this in mind.