Chalkboard Week 12 Player Prop Bets Article

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Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space below to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

Week 11 Recap

Another near break-even week in Week 10, and there are a couple of bets I'd want back. For starters, Vidal's 61.5 rushing yards closed at 46.5, but unfortunately for us, one week removed from Patterson nearly splitting the carries with Vidal, Vidal had a whopping 25(!!!) carries to Patterson's one. Hindsight is 20/20, and I guess I shouldn't have bought into one week of usage, but so did the rest of the world as his line closed 15 yards lower, but the cards flipped, and it was not a good bet at all. The other bet I'd want back is Dyami Brown o2.5 recs; The Jags went out and traded for Jakobi, but they were without Travis Hunter and BTJ. Dyami was off the injury report, but shockingly only ran 13 routes on 32 Tlaw drop-backs. I am not sure why a guy (Dyami) the Jags paid 10 million in the offseason is now a part-time player with their WR1 and 2 injured, but this was a bad bet given the usage.

We also had some bets that I thought were super strong and should've won.

One of those was Loveland u3.5 recs and u32.5 rec yds. The books were pricing Loveland as if Kmet was going to miss this game, and or pricing it as if Loveland's role would expand into a more full-time role; neither was true. Kmet played and Loveland ran 23 routes to KKmet's20. Unfortunately for us, Caleb dropped back the most he had since Week 1 despite coming into the game as home favorites versus a horrific run defense. Loveland is a bet I'd make time and time again. Another loss that stung was Hendo o21.5 rec yds. Henderson again ran a healthy number of routes, 26 on 36 Maye drop-backs. As stated at the time of release, TB has been beaten through the air by opposing backs, but for whatever reason, Henderson just didn't see the targets. Henderson had a 0.20 TPRR coming into the game, but only posted a 0.03 TPRR this past Sunday. Here's to hoping we can string together some winning weeks in a row and put these up-and-down, up-and-down results of the past behind us.

Week 12 Bets

Matthew Stafford OVER 33.5 Passing Attempts (NFL)
Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing the fourth-highest PROE this season, and opposing quarterbacks are averaging 34 pass attempts per game against them. The Bucs are already a clear pass funnel, and the Rams rank fourth in PROE through the first 11 weeks. The only real concern for this bet is the potential game script. Los Angeles is favored by 6.5 points and is capable of blowing teams out thanks to its strength on both sides of the ball. Although Tampa has dropped three of its last four, it has still forced opponents to stay aggressive—outside of the Detroit matchup. This Buccaneers offense consistently finds ways to score, so I expect the Rams offense will need to keep pushing throughout the game.

Tyler Lockett UNDER 2.5 Receptions (NFL)
Lockett, a 33-year-old midseason pickup for the Raiders, has oddly been playing more snaps than their second- and fourth-round rookie receivers, which makes little sense. Geno Smith dropped back 49 times in their last game, yet Lockett ran only 22 routes. It’s unlikely Cleveland will push Geno into anywhere near that level of volume, and last week the Raiders leaned heavily on 12 personnel, which should keep Lockett’s route rate below 50%. With this matchup carrying the lowest total of the week at 36.5, I’m expecting extremely limited play volume overall.

Brian Robinson OVER 20.5 Rushing Yards (NFL)
Robinson enters this matchup having surpassed this number in three straight games, with carry totals of 5, 8, and 8. Recently, the rushing workload between CMC and Robinson has tightened, with a 61%–39% split favoring CMC over the last two weeks. Both Kyle Shanahan and offensive coordinator Klay Kubiak have praised Robinson’s recent play, with Kubiak noting, “Robinson has been awesome. He’s a pro, and he’s performed really well when given opportunities.” With the 49ers listed as 7-point home favorites against the Panthers, there’s every reason to expect another solid mix of touches for both CMC and Robinson.

Calvin Austin UNDER 2.5 Receptions (NFL)
Roman Wilson played 37 snaps to Austin’s 19 and ran 21 routes compared to Austin’s 12, with Austin earning just a single target. Wilson appears to be emerging as the clear WR2, and the Steelers’ frequent use of their tight end trio (Washington, Freiermuth, and Jonnu) will make it even harder for Austin to find the field if Wilson has indeed overtaken him. If Aaron Rodgers suits up despite the wrist injury, Pittsburgh may also lean more heavily on the run, adding another possible out.

Derik Queen OVER 20.5 Points & Rebounds (NBA)
Queen is coming off of a MONSTER game where he scored a career high 30 points and grabbed 9 rebounds and even drew praise from Nikola Jokic after the game. Queen now gets a matchup against the Dallas Mavericks where he will continue to start and play as many minutes as he can handle. I love Queen tonight and his outlook the rest of the season.

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