Jake's Week 4 NFL Player Prop Bets
Every week, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.
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Week 3: 3-5, -$247
Overall: 9-10, -$254
-10.31% ROI
Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop
Note: alts will not count toward the record (wins/losses) but will be included in ROI % and +/- $ totals
Week 3 Recap
Another negative week due to some bad reads and poor luck. The Juju loss sucked as it seemed like Worthy was going to play, but was ruled out Saturday, which threw a wrench in the Juju u2.5. This Quentin Johnston production has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, as a player who had basically been written off is now producing like one of the top WRs in the league. I thought Surtain would give QJ issues, and LAC would just go elsewhere with the ball, but that proved to be incorrect. Jamo caught two balls in the 1st quarter and never caught another one for the rest of the game. I thought Detroit's run game would struggle against a historically stout Ravens run defense, but the absence of Madubuike was evident as the Ravens got gashed on the ground, only forcing Goff to throw 28 times.
I'm looking forward to the coming weeks, as it's always a little tougher to predict what teams are going to do at the start of the year because it's tough to know if what teams are doing in Weeks 1 and 2 is sticky or not. Still, once we get deeper into a season, we start to understand teams and players' identities better.
Week 4 Bets
Greg Dortch OVER 1.5 Receptions (-120 FD) 12.5 yards on FD and 15.5 on CZRs grades out just as well (yards good to 17.5)
Zay Jones is out tonight for AZ, which should thrust Greg Dortch into a starting role. Dortch came in last week when Jones went out and caught two balls. In games without Zay Jones last year, Dortch averaged 3.16 catches per game; this line is simply too low for a WR that should see over 60% of routes.
Risk to win 1 unit
Xavier Worthy OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FD, 39.5 CZRs, 38.5 MGM/HR) (OVER 3.5 Receptions is also good on FD)
The Chiefs are 1-2, and they are staring 1-3 right in the face as they are 2.5-point home underdogs versus the Ravens. Xavier Worthy is set to finally return from his Week 1 dislocated shoulder/torn labrum because Travis Kelce decided to plow into him on their third play of the game. This number clearly factors in that there's a chance Worthy is limited and/or ineffective, but the Chiefs are desperate in this spot. The game has a healthy total of 48.5, and this is a line Worthy cleared (receptions and yards) in his last 10 games in a row last season. The Chiefs have been desperate for a skill player to make plays, and Worthy is their best chance of doing so, injured or not, in what's shaping up to be a potentially must-win game in Week 4.
Risk to win 1 unit
C.J. Stroud UNDER 31.5 Pass Attempts (-119 DK, -120 Builder, -121 Kambi, -125 CZRs)
This Texans versus Titans divisional matchup has the lowest game total of the week (38.5), and the Titans have been getting gashed on the ground defensively. The Titans are the 29th-ranked run defense, allowing 145.7 yards per game. The Texans' passing offense has been unimpressive, averaging only 58 plays per game, which ranks them 28th in the league. Texans games this year average only a total of 29 points. This should be a low-scoring affair where the Texans could realistically win, only scoring 14 points, as the Titans have struggled tremendously offensively.
Risk to win 1 unit
Bucky Irving OVER 14.5 Rush Attempts (-122 CZRS, -130 FD, -128 DK/Builder) 13.5 -130 on Kambi
has 56 carries in three games (18 per game), but the Bucs have also faced far inferior teams, which is why this is at 14.5. Philly was the 4th-ranked run defense last season, but losing Milton Williams, Josh Sweat, Brandon Graham, and now losing Nolan Smith to injury makes this Eagles run D much less intimidating, and it's evident on the field as the Eagles are 24th-ranked run defense through 3 weeks, coughing up 133 yards per game. Tampa will be without Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, and possibly Godwin as well, but if Godwin does play, he'd surely be somewhat limited, hampering Tampa's passing offense significantly. It would be in Tampa's best interest to slow this game down and try to get the run game going. Bucky is fresh off a 25-carry outing against the Jets, and I expect him to be fed often here against Philly.
Risk to win 1 unit
A.J. Brown OVER 4.5 Receptions (+110 FD, -101 Builder, -102 CZRs)
Following A.J. Brown's one target in Week 1 on 33 routes run, he has followed that up with receiving lines of 5/27/0 and 6/109/1. The most encouraging sign is that Week 1 is a one-off target-wise, as AJ has a 0.28 TPRR over the past two weeks, earning eight in Week 2 and ten in Week 3. Tampa is 2nd in rush defense DVOA, and Saquon has already struggled big time with efficiency on the ground, averaging only 3.3 yards per carry. When Hurts was forced to throw last week in the second half, the Eagles scored 26 points in two quarters, proving that when Philly wants to throw, they're more than capable. Philly ranks 30th in neutral pass rate, but it wouldn't shock me if they shifted slightly more towards the pass game after having success last week and the run game being ultimately inefficient over the first three weeks.
Bet 1 unit
Cam Ward UNDER 19.5 Pass Completions (-132 DK, -133 Builder, -136 FD)
's numbers have been unimpressive to start his rookie campaign, whether it's due to him playing poorly, the players around him playing poorly, the coaching being awful, or a combination of all of the above. The Titans have been a train wreck offensively. Houston's defense has suffocated opposing teams, holding them to a measly 17 points per game (5th in the league). Houston's games this year have featured a league low 29.7 total points per game, and their games have also been among the bottom five in total plays, at just 119. Ward has only completed 54% of his passes to begin the season, and facing another top defense, I don't expect this completion percentage to shoot up any time soon. Ward has only completed 20+ passes in one of his first three starts. Combining the slow pace of the game, offensive inefficiency from Tennessee, and Ward's inability to complete passes at a clip of more than 55% this 19.5 is too high.
Risk to win 1 unit
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