Week 8 at Buffalo Bills
Julian Edelman had knee surgery this week and will likely be placed on injured reserve, meaning he will miss at least three games.
Week 7 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Julian Edelman's fantasy profile has deteriorated alongside the New England passing game in recent weeks. Edelman has seven catches in his last three games and has totaled 66 yards in that time. Edelman's 179-yard game in Week 2 feels like the distant past at this point, and New England will not be switching up their run-first philosophy any time soon with Cam Newton back under center. The 49ers have been tough against slot receivers, but recently lost K'Waun Williams to injury, meaning Edelman will face off primarily with backups on Sunday. The matchup is Edelman's saving grace for consideration as an unexciting WR3 in PPR formats, but his floor is extremely low.
Week 6 vs. Denver Broncos
Julian Edelman's recent production leaves plenty to be desired for fantasy, but he does get a good matchup to bounce back this week. Edelman has only totaled five catches for 58 yards over the last two games, but the Broncos are exploitable through the air and will likely be missing A.J. Bouye in the slot due to injury. Bouye's backup, Essang Bussey, has been lit up by opposing slot receivers during his time filling in. Furthermore, despite Edelman's sporadic production, he still has yet to see fewer than six targets in a game this season. Edelman's consistent usage should mean he will return solid games where game script and matchup are in his favor. This week sets up well for Edelman, making him a reasonable start as a WR3/flex.
Week 5 vs. Denver Broncos
Julian Edelman's recent production leaves plenty to be desired for fantasy, but he does get a good matchup to bounce back this week. Edelman has only totaled five catches for 58 yards over the last two games, but the Broncos are exploitable through the air and will likely be missing A.J. Bouye in the slot due to injury. Bouye's backup, Essang Bussey, has been lit up by opposing slot receivers during his time filling in. Furthermore, despite Edelman's sporadic production, he still has yet to see fewer than six targets in a game this season. Edelman's consistent usage should mean he will return solid games where game script and matchup are in his favor. This week sets up well for Edelman, making him a reasonable start as a WR3/flex.
Week 4 at Kansas City Chiefs
Julian Edelman crashed back to earth after his breakout Week 3 by posting only two catches for 23 yards in Week 4. Edelman's fantasy production to this point shows the volatile nature of New England's low-volume passing attack for fantasy purposes. Edelman will likely have some solid games when the score is close or the Patriots are forced to play from behind, but he will throw up plenty of duds along the way when his team can simply pound teams into submission with Cam Newton and the ground game. Edelman still leads the team in targets with 24 through three games, but his role means most of those receptions come close to the line of scrimmage and he will rely heavily on volume to return fantasy value. Edelman is startable as a WR3 this week as the Patriots will have to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Week 3 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Julian Edelman benefited from New England's pass-happy playcalling in a big way in Week 2, finishing with a team-leading 11 targets and turning them into eight catches for 179 yards. Edelman showed he still has big-play ability on two deep catches where he beat Jamal Adams in coverage. There were concerns about Edelman's ability to be a fantasy producer without Tom Brady, but he has attracted 18 targets over the first two weeks of the season and produced 236 yards. Edelman is still the clear top receiving option for Cam Newton and the Patriots, and he should be able to get loose for a solid performance against a middling Raider secondary. Start Edelman as a solid WR3 this week.
Week 2 at Seattle Seahawks
Julian Edelman is not going to see the volume he is used to with Cam Newton under center, but based on what we saw in Week 1 he could still return WR3 value this year. The Patriots rolled out an ultra run-heavy offense in Week 1, but Edelman still attracted seven targets, securing five of them for 57 yards to go along with a 23 yard run. In a game where Newton only threw the ball 19 times, Edelman still managed to produce a decent fantasy performance which bodes well for future weeks. Newton will almost surely be forced to throw more this week as the Patriots travel to Seattle to take on Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Edelman remains a solid flex play, especially in PPR leagues.
Week 1 vs. Miami Dolphins
Julian Edelman is in an interesting fantasy situation heading into Week 1. By all accounts he is still the top target in the New England passing game, but there are questions about his fit with new quarterback Cam Newton. Edelman's experience and steady hands should secure him a healthy target share, especially without proven receivers behind him on the depth chart. He should be playable in fantasy as a high-floor WR3, especially in PPR leagues. Edelman carries more risk than ever before, but he's still worth starting in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Julian Edelman fought through an assortment of injuries to finish as the 14th-ranked wide receiver in half-PPR formats last season. Edelman’s fantasy value hinges on his high-volume role in a Patriots’ offense that will have to adjust to a new era with Tom Brady headed to Tampa Bay. Edelman finished third among receivers in total targets last year and his 26.2% target share ranked seventh at the position. The Patriots’ skill group is little changed from last year, meaning Edelman should retain this role even in his age 34 season. Cam Newton is more than capable of providing Edelman with sufficient accuracy and volume to remain a fantasy asset even if he is no longer the locked-in WR2 in PPR that fantasy players are accustomed to. Edelman should be good for another year as a reliable possession receiver in New England and fantasy owners should not hesitate to grab Edelman if he falls in drafts due to Brady’s departure.
Fantasy Downside
The obvious concern with Edelman is the absence of Brady and the impact Newton will have on the Patriots’ longtime slot receiver. Edelman always enjoyed excellent chemistry with Brady and any drop off with Newton would put a dent in his fantasy numbers. Edelman’s efficiency metrics are mediocre at best at this point in his career, so volume is crucial for him. It is also fair to ask questions about Edelman’s durability going into his 11th season. Edelman played in all 16 games last year but was clearly limited by injuries, particularly in the second half of the season. He turned 34 in May and the injuries will only take a greater toll in 2020.
2020 Bottom Line
Edelman should have another year of fantasy utility left in him, though it is hard to trust him as a WR2 like it was when he was paired up with Brady. His high-volume role in the Patriots’ offense makes him a WR3 in PPR, but he will be a risky play in standard leagues.
Week 17 vs Miami Dolphins
Julian Edelman is having the best fantasy season of his career, ranking as the WR7 through Week 17. Just when it looked like a knee injury might be a death knell for Julian Edelman's end-of-season fantasy value after a Week 15 dud, he rebounded somewhat with a WR31 performance in Week 16. It seems likely that if the Patriots final game had no bearing on their playoff seeding, they would rest Edelman for the playoffs, but they don't have that luxury. His snap shares of 62% and 71% over the past two weeks were his lowest of the season by a large margin, as he averaged a 90% snap share from Weeks 1-13.
The Dolphins have the highest aFPA to wide receivers, and receivers lining up in the slot as Edelman regularly does have taken advantage of this secondary repeatedly. Edelman's lowered snap count could be a limiting factor, and if the Patriots can build a comfortable lead early, Belichick would probably jump at the chance to rest him. If Week 16 was an indicator that Edelman is improving quickly from his injury, he has a high ceiling in this matchup. He's not without risk, and you'll have to pay up in DFS to start him, as he's got a top-ten price on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
