Thursday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Steelers at Browns

Thursday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Steelers at Browns

I'm back and ready to go though with a big AFC North game that sees the 3-6 Cleveland Browns hosting the suddenly red-hot Pittsburgh Steelers who are 5-4. It's a huge game for both teams (moreso for the Browns) if they want to have any shot at making the playoffs.

Let's break down the game and how we can find the edge that might get us at the top of the leaderboards.

Injuries

The big one to watch here is the status of Seals-Jones. If he sits, then Demetrius Harris has some value, while RSJ is a viable option if he is able to suit up. Switzer being out means a more secure role for James Washington who finally broke out last week.

Evaluation of Vegas Spread and Total

Cleveland -2.5 Over/Under 41

I am somewhat surprised the Browns are favorites here, but I guess Vegas is looking at their solid performance last week and the fact they are at home in determining the spread. The total seems a little low to me, but the Steelers have been playing solid defense of late. I still think we see 45+ in this game. Let's look at the likely game flow given this spread and total and assign some probabilities to each potential outcome.

  • Close, low-scoring game (<40 points) - 40%
  • Close, average-scoring game (40-49 points) - 40%
  • Close, high-scoring game (50+ points) - 20%
  • Blowout for the home team, low-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the home team, average-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the home team, high-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the away team, low-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the away team, average-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the away team, high-scoring game - 0%
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