Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 16 Targets

Dec 18, 2018

The regular season encapsulates so many tenants of fantasy football. Working the waiver wire. Negotiating trades. Streaming different positions. We consume weekly content advising picks based on these underlying concepts with tweaks here and there. The playoffs are a different beast. As the NFL regular comes to a close, both injuries and post-season outlook can affect the opportunities for each of our fantasy assets. Leonard Fournette only got a partial workload as the Jaguars look at their reserve talent. Nick Foles is back in our lives. Our fantasy team’s production changes as quickly as the league while the season winds down. All we can do is make the optimal plays and hope our team comes out on top once the dust settles.

Week 15 featured another round of underperforming fantasy studs. Andrew Luck, Dak Prescott and Jameis Winston all scored single-digit fantasy points. Our recommended streamers fared much better based on our weekly process. Lamar Jackson, our top streamer, finished the week with 16.7 points at QB9. Josh Allen and Nick Mullens also had solid performances by scoring 19.8 and 14.8 points, respectively. It’s championship week with a lot of the line. Let’s review all of the latest news and updates to our tools before we get into the streaming recommendations for Week 16.

Our Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) ranks have been updated for your championship matchups. Noticeable changes from Week 15 to 16 include:

IND up 13 spots with 16.7 aFPA
DEN up 7 spots with 14.1 aFPA
JAX down 9 spots with 16.9 aFPA
HOU down 10 spots with 17.7 aFPA

Injuries and personnel changes have altered our views on many of the defenses originally viewed as positive matchups to target. Defenses are discussed above, and injuries are discussed in the section below. As always, the other guidelines include:

Only quarterbacks with no more than a 40 percent ownership in Yahoo leagues are considered.
Ancillary metrics and game conditions (e.g. defensive ranking, weather) will be factored into the analysis.
Positive matchups for all pass catchers to be considered.
4for4 rankings should always be consulted for league-specific decisions.

We haven't forgotten about those leagues that run their playoffs into Week 17. Our Playoff Matchup Planner has looked ahead at each matchup during the playoffs and averaged the fantasy points allowed for all positions. There will be one more streaming article in Week 17, but we'll look ahead to who would be an ideal candidate this week.

Key Defensive Injuries

Eddie Jackson, Bears (Ankle) – The Bears defense (14.6 aFPA) continues to impress but could be a man down after winning their division. The second-year starter injured himself after breaking Aaron Rodgers’ streak of completed passes without an interception. Because it was in the fourth quarter and the team was winning, there was no rush for a diagnosis, but Coach Nagy has since indicated they injuries were not season-ending. It’s likely he’ll be sat until the playoffs and it’s clear the team has the depth of talent to wait on his return as they travel to California to face the 49ers.

Logan Ryan, Titans (Leg) – Neither Adam Schefter nor Ian Rapoport got the chance to break the news. In a slightly bizarre twist, the Titans’ CB took to Twitter to announce his season-ending injury himself. Tennessee’s defense (15.5 aFPA) has been surprisingly stingy despite the team’s offensive ups and downs. Ryan was their best nickel cornerback with rotational players (e.g. LeShaun Sims) to back him up. They’re still in the playoff picture and play host to Washington on Saturday.

Gareon Conley, Raiders (Head) –After making a play on a pass against Cincinnati, Conley fell awkwardly to the ground hitting his head in the process. He was quickly ruled out with a concussion and the Bengals took advantage of the loss. To make matters worse, Conley was flagged for pass interference on the same play costing the team even more yards. Oakland (18.3 aFPA) generates the least pressure and has been a target of many streaming articles this season. They face an equally lackluster Broncos offense in Week 16.

Top Streaming Picks

Nick Foles vs. Houston

Philadelphia’s savior has returned as the Eagles fight to stay in the playoff hunt. The box score only shows 24-270-0 with an interception (9.3 fantasy points). Film review shows a quarterback that had not started in three months playing well against a defense that had only allowed 193 yards on average their past three games. Foles first deep completion to Alshon Jeffery in the second quarter was perfectly placed as he had a step on Aqib Talib down the right sideline. Foles was able to work the pocket, convert out of play action and didn’t take a sack against the team averaging nearly two per game. If it wasn’t already clear the team wasn’t prepared to start Foles, their play-calling tendencies made it clear. Philadelphia with Wentz was passing at a nearly 63 percent rate for the season (top 10 in the league). That dropped to nearly 50 percent under Foles in Week 15. It’s likely the playbook was limited due to lack of time to prepare, but Foles appeared comfortable under center making off-platform throws. Houston (17.7 aFPA) has been strong up front, but their secondary has been ravaged with injuries. Sam Darnold dropped 253 yards and two touchdowns against them in Week 15 with comparatively less talent. The Texans’ boundary corners are their weakness and Foles’ favorite target (Jeffery) plays that position over 80 percent of the time. The Eagles are at home with a 23-point implied total making Foles our top streamer of the week.

Foles is available in 93 percent of Yahoo leagues.