Exploiting Defenses in DFS - Week 8

Exploiting Defenses in DFS - Week 8

By Mike Woellert (IDP Expert), last update Oct 30, 2015

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Mike is an IDP veteran, writing about and ranking IDP for over six season. He finished 6th in overall IDP rankings and 1st overall LB rankings in 2014 at FantasyPros. When he's not poring over IDP depth charts, he can be found agonizing over his Cleveland sports teams.

Follow Mike Woellert on Twitter: @Mike_Woellert.

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When it comes to DFS lineups, looking at matchups and opportunities will be key in constructing a winning lineup. Everyone knows that Julian Edelman is a top receiver, but that doesn’t necessarily make him a slam dunk starter every week in DFS (see last week against the Jets). Edelman, because of who’s throwing to him, is typically one of the top wide receivers, but there will always be one with a cheaper price tag in a similar spot for production with a better matchup. 

We’re just about to hit the halfway point of the season. Sample sizes are starting to become trends. If a particular cornerback is getting burned, he’s someone to target each week. The same goes for run defense. At this point of the season, if a defense is bad, they aren’t going to magically improve, so start to use the numbers to your advantage.

Each week, I’ll help you exploit specific defensive players and also touch on non-skill offensive players (read: the offensive line) to help you make the right choices on which players to roster and which players to fade in DFS lineups.

Last week we had our hits with the Ryan Tannehill, Stefon Diggs, Robert Woods, the Julian Edelman fade, and Latavius Murray. In terms of misses, we missed on Brandon Marshall (although he had a key drop), Willie Snead, Mike Wallace and Frank Gore. Let’s enjoy the wins and try to increase our hit rate even more in Week 8.


Situations to Exploit in the Passing Game


I’m targeting Eli Manning as one of my top QBs of the week. This is projecting to be a track meet with an O/U of 49. The Saints secondary, specifically cornerback Delvin Breaux, was beat deep by T.Y. Hilton last week. The Saints can also be taken advantage of in the short passing game, as linebacker Dannell Ellerbe is weak in coverage. Cornerback Brandon Browner wasn’t thrown at much last week, but he’s been one of the league's most targeted corners and gives up chunks of yardage. He should cover Rueben Randle. According to our aFPA tool, the Saints are giving up the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to the QB position. Eli should be able to exploit the New Orleans defense this week.

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