FanDuel Hindsight Week 6: Vintage Stafford
Welcome to FanDuel Hindsight, where we'll recap the previous week on FanDuel, focusing on the Sunday Million tournament, which has a $1 Million grand prize. We'll use the benefit of hindsight to see what lessons can be learned about the Sunday Million winner's low-owned, difference-making plays, then check in on how the most popular plays of the week fared.
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After a few weeks of rising ownership in the Sunday Million winning lineup, FanDuel user adrianbeatyerson (no comment on that username) took a contrarian approach to take down the $1 million grand prize.
The lineup contained six players owned 5.2 percent or less. Every player except Travis Kelce scored at least two points per $1,000, with four scoring over three points per $1,000. Another notable thing is that a QB-WR stack wasn't used. Instead, a QB-K stack -- which is also positively correlated, albeit not as strongly as QB-WR -- was deployed. It's also worth noting the Dolphins' defense was facing the Titans, who were allowing the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to defenses, according to our aFPA tool. Let's break down the lineup's key low-owned plays.
Why No One Was On Him: Stafford was coming off a string of disastrous performances for the 0-5 Lions, including a benching his last game.
Hindsight Bias: Stafford's price was the lowest it had been in years. Stafford was certainly struggling, but did face a string of the league's top pass defense in Denver, Seattle, and Arizona. The Bears were giving up a high rate of passing TDs per attempt.
WR Keenan Allen
Hindsight Bias: Allen's "booms" were monstrous: 15-166 in Week 1 and 12-133 in Week 3. The Chargers were expected to have to throw a ton as 10-point underdogs facing a Packers team with a 30-point implied Vegas total. Allen put up this big game despite leaving in the third quarter with a hip injury.
WR John Brown
Why No One Was On Him: Brown had been playing good "real" football, but it hadn't translated into fantasy numbers, with his season-high in yardage at 75 coming into the game.
Hindsight Bias: Brown was drawing an excessive amount of long pass interference penalties, so he was getting the deep targets necessary for an explosion. As the number-two WR attached to red-hot Carson Palmer, a blowup was in the cards.
D Miami Dolphins
Why No One Was On Them: They just fired their coach and no one knew what to expect from them. Also, they were a road underdog.
Hindsight Bias: As I mentioned above, the Titans were ranked 32nd in aFPA to defenses.
How Did the Most Highly Owned Plays of the Week Do?
QB Tom Brady 26.4% Owned, 23.4 Points
Brady did what was expected of him: throw for 300 yards and three TDs. However, six QBs outscored Brady -- five of which were $7,500 or below.
RB Matt Forte 19.2% Owned, 18.4 Points
Usage monster Forte had a solid game, but was vultured at the goal-line by Jeremy Langford on what would have added a second TD to his ledger.
RB Eddie Lacy 19.1% Owned, 3 Points
Lacy is obviously still not 100 percent from a Week 2 ankle injury. He was out-snapped by James Starks 28-20, and out-touched by Starks 11-6. While Starks gained 112 all-purpose yards and added two TDs, Lacy amassed only 20 scoreless yards.
WR Julian Edelman 40.8% Owned, 14.2 Points
Edelman probably would have had a bigger game if he hadn't broken his finger after a first-quarter TD. He proceeded to commit three egregious drops and Tom Brady eventually starting looking elsewhere. Edelman finished with a 6-50-1 line, most of which was accumulated before the broken finger.
WR DeAndre Hopkins 32.2% Owned, 31.8 Points
Hopkins is a perfect example of why we try to roster receivers who see a lot of targets. Coming in to Week 6, he was leading the league in targets by a wide margin, and parlayed 15 more into a 10-148-2 line.
WR Larry Fitzgerald 27.6% Owned, 13.3 Points
The underpriced Fitzgerald had another good game with an 8-93 line, but failing to reach the end zone ultimately made him a non-factor for owners.
TE Antonio Gates 34.5% Owned, 14 Points
Gates could have had a much bigger day, but had a bunch of near-misses in close to the goal line. He finished with a 9-95 line.