Week 3 was a bloodbath for me. It started strong with us nailing Tua's under on the longest completion, but got derailed quickly on Sunday. We bet Treveyon Henderson U5.5 carries at plus money, and I stand by the process there. He was the RB3 in Week 2 and struggling mightily in pass protection. The game was playing out as planned with no carries, until Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled. One fumble is not the end of the world, though, right? Well, Stevenson proceeded to fumble a SECOND time at the goal line. On the next drive, the Patriots started with Antonio Gibson. I still thought we could be in the clear with Gibson soaking up the majority of the work, and they are behind, so we will be mostly passing. Antonio Gibson then fumbled on that drive. This led to 7 straight Henderson carries on the very next drive. Frustrating to say the least. Also, the Panthers randomly blowing out the Falcons led to Penix going way over his pass attempts prop. Not a fun way to start the week.
Either way, it's a long season, and I trust my process after 4+ years of consecutively profitable player prop releases. I have already played 3 bets for Thursday Night and one for the London game. Let’s dive into the card.
Week 4 NFL Player Prop Bets
Kyler Murray Under 29.5 Rushing Yards (-114 CZRS, and FD, -112 Builder, -116 DK, WA otherwise)
Kyler Murray has been running more to start this season, but most of it has come via scrambles. The Cardinals have only designed 2.5 rush attempts per game for him, which is less than one more per game compared to last season.
This week, he draws Mike Macdonald’s Seahawks defense, which has been lights out to start the year. Both Brock Purdy and Spencer Rattler are mobile QBs, yet they finished with just 5-17 and 2-10 on the ground against Seattle. Last year, Murray had two of his lowest rushing outputs of the season versus the Seahawks (2-9 and 3-16).
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit.
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